Red Hat Is Red Hot
by Jeff Fischer (TMF Jeff)
Like Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO), Netscape, and Google, Red Hat's (Nasdaq: RHAT) history can
be traced to a university student. In 1991, Finnish student Linus Torvalds created a software operating system (OS) based
on the Unix system booming at the time. He made his OS source code publicly available and allowed the public to add to and
improve on the software, so long as all the code remained public. The operating system was called Linux.
As the popularity of Linux grew, entrepreneurs had the idea of packaging the OS and adding improvements, upsells, and technical
support in order to form a business around it. This is how Red Hat came to life. This year, it'll see more than $100 million
in revenue.
Linux is praised for flexibility, stability, and, of course, its ability to be tweaked by others. Red Hat's Linux is popular
because the company employs a large team of open source programmers to produce a version of Linux that is stable, powerful,
scalable, has added features, and is backed by support. The software can also be cheaper to run than competing systems.
Red Hat has until recently sold OS platforms aimed at two main markets: (1) Red Hat Linux for the retail consumer (the
personal or small-business user), and (2) Red Hat Enterprise Linux for the big-money commercial or enterprise market. According
to IDC research, Linux is the world's fastest-growing server OS (really, what other competition is out there growing
against Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)?). Enterprise sales account for a vast majority of Red Hat's revenue.
The company recently ended its Red Hat Linux consumer line (increasing near-term risks), in favor of an open source Fedora
software project that will receive less support (lower costs). Meanwhile, new versions of Red Hat's Enterprise Linux products
are released approximately every 12 to 18 months, because deployment of enterprise software is a larger task for corporations,
and updates are not undertaken as frequently.
Investors know software can be a high-margin business blessed with regular product renewals and upgrades, which bring revenue
from the same customers in an annuity fashion (if not quite annual). Linux has its place -- and it is a growing place -- in
the market, and Red Hat has top-brand recognition. The trends suggest long-term market acceptance, which should translate
into steady revenue growth for Red Hat.
But is there any value to be had in the shares?
To get the rest of Jeff's analysis, which includes a look at Red Hat's financials, see the
original article.