Pete,

Our Hold range has returned to more normal territory on Thursday.  Here's the stats from the week as a whole on what has been very consistent traffic.  Out of all E-mail processed, both good and bad, the %Hold represents what scored between 10-24 points on our system and needed review, the %Sniffer represents all Sniffer hits except for Gray, the %Spam is what we scanned and didn't deliver (generally about 99.8% of spam is caught at a score of 10 which this is based on), and the Sniffer/Spam is the percentage of Sniffer hits as a portion of messages scoring 10 or more.

    Day      %Hold    %Sniffer    %Spam    Sniffer/Spam
    Mon:     1.86%     77.27%     80.37%     96.14%
    Tue:     2.83%     74.53%     79.37%     93.39%
    Wed:     2.13%     77.60%     79.66%     97.41%
    Thur:    1.95%     76.50%     80.66%     94.84%


The only change that we made to our system was to add two smaller domains later in the week, and we introduced filters for Cyrillic and Chinese languages on Wednesday morning which have cut our hold file down by 0.38 percentage points on Thursday, which explains how our %Hold is lower on than on Wednesday with a lower Sniffer hit rate on spam.

I did note two high volume untagged static spammers on Tuesday that we blacklisted locally, and that combined with the increase in Sniffer change rates (spam storm) might account for the changes that I saw.  I am wondering though about the recommendations that you have made for possibly fine tuning our rule base.  Again though, please keep in mind that I still feel that performance is overall very, very good.

One of my thoughts regarding minimum rule strengths and grace periods is that all groups aren't necessarily the same.  For instance Nigerian scams are low volume and sporadic, and my system performs the worst on these things.  Maybe lower rule strengths and longer grace periods makes much more sense for the Phishing category than it does for many other categories for instance.  Is that possible?

I also looked up the rule strengths on your site and found that about 50%, or maybe more, have a strength below 1, and maybe lowering that is worth testing out so long as I don't massively increase the number of records.  I do think though that I would like to test out extending the grace period.  Most of my false positives are not on things that this would affect, and that might give niche sources a little extra coverage if I understand things correctly.

I'll follow your directions and contact you directly regarding any affirmative changes, but I thought it might be beneficial to keep this discussion public since some other stats hounds might find this information to be of use :)

If you can glean anything from the numbers that I gave you, please add your thoughts.

Thanks,

Matt





Pete McNeil wrote:
At 05:00 PM 5/19/2004, you wrote:

<snip/>

I haven't yet upgraded to the most recent release, I'm still on the prior beta.  I'll probably do that this evening.  I tend to wait on upgrades until there has been enough time for bugs to surface unless I am already looking for a fix.  I'm sure that the extra verification of the rulebase will help prevent the potential of problems, and I guess this has the possibility of being caused by a bit of corrupted data, though that's probably reaching.

There were no substantive changes from the beta to the production version. Largely just a removal of monitoring code.

Again, regardless if there was a blip, Sniffer still does a wonderful job of tagging lots and lots of E-mail, just not quite as much as the day before.

Last night I was able to adjust the rule strength analysis window back to it's original settings. About 5 days of data were lost - but those days will be recovered quickly. Please let me know if this adjustment improved your conditions.

I've noted that on a number of other lists there seem to be posts about a sudden increase in spam over the past few days. We are definitely seeing this also - approximately a 25% or more increase in new rule additions in the past 4 days:

http://www.sortmonster.com/MessageSniffer/Performance/ChangeRates.jsp

Specifically note from about 4 days ago...


Days Ago Adjustments
-------- -----------

0        356
1        508
2        391
3        410
4        410
5        326
6        309
7        371
8        292
9        347
10       309

  
( 5-10 : 1954/6 -> 325.67, 0-5 : 2075/5 -> 415, 325.67/415 -> 78.47 )
Note that day 0 is not complete. So applying a "fudge factor" 78.4 _looks like_ 75%.
Besides, 92% of statistics are made up on the spot anyway %^b
I think a number of things are combined here... I just want to get a good handle on them and make sure we are doing the best we can.

I've noted, Matt, that your rulebase tuning parameters are set at the defaults. If you would like to adjust these to be more aggressive then please let me know off list (support@). More aggressive settings will keep more rules active in your rulebase at lower strengths and will also allow new rules more time to gain strength before being evaluated. Respectively the current defaults are:

Minimum Rule Strength: 1.0
Grace Period: 5 days.

Adjusting these settings can significantly increase the size of your rulebase file.

Best,
_M


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