http://www.serbianna.com/columns/borojevic/024.shtml Intreview with Srdja Trifkovic Oil Of Our Time
By Boba Borojevic (Ottawa, September 6, 2005) --Hurricane Katrina has blazed a trail of devastation throughout Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Across the Gulf Coast, Katrina engulfed thousands of homes and decimated the landscape in what could become the most destructive storm in U.S. history. It is said that at least 20 oil platforms are missing and presumed sunk, with others drifting, having sustained serious damage to oil supply throughout North America. Port Fourchon, the hub for oil and gas production in the gulf, likewise appears severely damaged, writes Richard Heinberg in his article Katrina, New Orleans, and Peak Oil published on 5 Sep 2005, by Global Public Media, along with the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), which is the only port in the nation designed to receive supertankers.[..] And all of this is occurring at a time when the global supply of oil is barely able to meet demand. Indeed, many petroleum analysts were already looking to the fourth quarter of 2005 as the likely moment of the all-time world oil production peak. Hurricane Katrina could spark a worldwide energy crisis by affecting oil products. It will not be limited to the United States, which left many analysts worried. Higher energy prices have potential to slow down growth and even to cause recession, both in West Europe and in the Americas, says Srdja Trifkovic*. It should be emphasized that this level of oil prices is not a historic high or an all-time high, however. Cost of oil in the aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur war was even higher. It is likely that the oil crisis will not go away for the foreseeable future. India and China are increasing their oil consumption, which is fuelled by their unprecedented economic growth. The reserves, both in Russia and Saudi Arabia, seem to be on the downward slide, Trifkovic says. To meet global demand, Saudi Arabia will need to produce 14 million barrels a day (mbd) by 2010 and 20 mbd by 2020. It is uncertain to what extent Saudi Arabia will be capable to increase output much beyond 12, let alone 15 mbd, however. And for as long as political instability persists in Iraq, it is hard to imagine how the US will be able to bring its output to the pre-war level. Also, the uncertainty surrounding Iran and the intentions of the US vis-à-vis Teheran, especially in the context of its nuclear program, creates additional uncertainties and uncertainties push oil prices up. China-Russia alliance China and Russia have formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with four former Soviet republics in Central Asia and added Iran, India and Pakistan this year as observers. At its July summit (2005), the organization demanded that Washington set a date for US withdrawal from Central Asia. Its forces have been deployed there since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks to support operations in neighboring Afghanistan. The new alliance sets a new tone in overall American Asian political and economic relations. It reflects the overall significance of Central Asia as the transit area for oil, and especially as the transit route from the Middle East into China, says Trifkovic. The sea route is vulnerable and susceptible to both closure and potential attack. It is somewhat puzzling that Moscow and Peking want to co-opt Pakistan into this regional structure, however. From the American point of view, the geopolitical equation of containing and confronting China demands an alliance formal or otherwise between the US and India. In the long term India is Chinas the only true rival in Asia. Forging a special relationship with Delhi is incompatible with maintaining a special relationship with Pakistan, however. In my view the choice is clear. The regime of General Musharraf is unreliable. He has sought to hunt with the hounds and to run with the hare. It is guilty of nuclear proliferation. Its entire ethos is rooted in the ideology of jihad. Alternative Sources of Energy With oil prices hitting record highs, and climate change forcing its way up the political agenda, there's more focus than ever before on the need for the alternative sources of energy. In that sense the industrial world will have to start looking for a solution. Fossil fuels have a finite life and there are finite reserves, says Trifkovic. New technologies have to be developed that would reduce the developed industrial worlds dependence on oil. A healthy side-effect of that reduced dependence would be the reduced significance of the Middle East in global affairs. Devoid of its significance as the source of essential energy, the Middle East would simply become yet another trouble spot of the world, no more significant and no more intractable than the Sub-Saharan Africa. For that to happen it would be necessary to have a concerted effort by the developed worlds governments. Just leaving the private sector to its own devices, and expecting that it will develop a substitute, is not feasible at this point. I am not a friend of big government, and prefer capitalists to bureaucrats, but this is the reality. Just as in the period of the Cold War it was necessary to harness the state resources in defense of the Free World, it is equally necessary today to have government-sponsored and financed programs of comprehensive research and development in field of energy substitution. Oil Industry of Serbia Soon in Private Hands? Privatization itself is not a bad idea, if the optimal price is obtained and the process is devoid of corruption or politically motivated distortions. Trifkovic believes that some political circles in Serbia intend to split the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS-Naftna Industrija Srbije) into several braches, such as refining and distribution, in order to sell it as is and not as it should be. The result will be an inadequate price and a speedy transfer of the last remaining Serbian economic giant into the hands of foreign bosses, without taking into consideration national interests and without seriously considering the option of finding alternative strategic partners. Trifkovic believes that some Serbian politicians, particularly Miroljub Labus, vice-premier of Serbia and the leader of the G17-Plus political party, follow the dictate of the International Monetary Fund for an urgent privatization of the NIS in violation of their oath of office. Selling refineries in Novi Sad and Pancevo would practically decapitate the NIS. Instead of selling it as an integral and rounded-up system, they would sell it piece by piece, and for a very low price. It is someones interest to prevent the Russian giant LUKOIL from entering into a strategic partnership with the NIS, and they have a Trojan horse within the government in Belgrade. By selling its assets to the BP, for instance, Serbia will become even more economically dependent on foreigners than it is now. That would not be a sound solution for Serbias impoverished economy in times of growing oil prices, concludes Trifkovic. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *Dr. Srdja Trifkovic director of the Institute For International Affairs at Rockford Institute, Rockford Illinois and the author of the book : The Sword of the Prophet: Islam-History, Theology, Impact on the World. http://www.chroniclesmagazine.org ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Help save the life of a child. Support St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. http://us.click.yahoo.com/ons1pC/lbOLAA/E2hLAA/1dTolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> =============== Group Moderator: [EMAIL PROTECTED] page at http://magazine.sorabia.net for more informations about current situation in Serbia http://www.sorabia.net Slusajte GLAS SORABIJE nas talk internet-radio (Serbian Only) http://radio.sorabia.net Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sorabia/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
