http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,,329421483-106710,00.html
Montenegro fights to change rules for independence vote · EU says referendum needs 55% majority to be valid · Serbian nationalists warn of war if split approvedIan Traynor in Belgrade Monday February 27, 2006 GuardianMontenegro's campaign for independence from Serbia is being complicated by Brussels, which is warning the tiny republic that independence will not be recognised by the EU unless it accepts voting conditions set by Brussels. In a decision that has outraged analysts, Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy chief, is insisting that for it to be valid, at least 55% of voters casting ballots must opt for independence. EU foreign ministers are expected to bless the Solana proposal today. The Montenegrin government, firmly committed to independence, spent the weekend lobbying furiously for the Brussels terms to be changed. Cristina Gallach, Mr Solana's spokeswoman, said: "The European Union fully supports the initiative," and called on the government to end its opposition. Critics say that the terms imposed by Brussels are more exacting than those practised mostly within the EU itself. Sweden or Malta would not be EU members if the same conditions had been applied to their membership referendums. The Montenegrin prime minister, Milo Djukanovic, who has been leading the pro-independence campaign for years, is confident he can win the vote, which is expected in April or May. Serbian nationalists and the Serbian government are strongly opposed to Montenegro splitting off, although the loose union linking Serbia and Montenegro is widely viewed as utterly dysfunctional. But the independence issue is highly divisive and could turn ugly. Serbian nationalists within Montenegro are warning of a civil war. The EU is telling Mr Djukanovic that the vote will be viewed as invalid and independence illegitimate unless he accepts Mr Solana's terms. The EU is also expected to order the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the main democracy watchdog, not to monitor the vote unless it is conducted on Mr Solana's terms. "There will be huge pressure on the OSCE to consider it an illegitimate referendum," referendum," said a western diplomat monitoring the dispute in Belgrade. Another diplomat said: "Djukanovic can legally and morally go ahead with the law they've got." But the small country of only 600,000 will find it extremely difficult to resist the pressure from Brussels. "It's outrageous. The scenario is for a real mess of Brussels' own making," said Nicholas Whyte, Europe programme director at the International Crisis Group thinktank in Brussels. The Venice Commission, a Council of Europe body whose recommendations on democratic governance are regarded as authoritative, said in a study in December that Montenegro's referendum law - requiring a straight majority result on a turnout of at least half the electorate - was entirely acceptable and in line with good European practice. Mr Solana appointed a Slovak diplomat to mediate because the two sides of the argument in Montenegro could not agree on the referendum rules. Opinion polls in Montenegro show a 55-45 split in favour of independence, but Mr Djukanovic clearly feels he could narrowly lose a vote conducted on Brussels' terms. Instead, he is proposing adopting the Danish model for referenda, whereby 40% of the electorate must vote in favour for the referendum to be valid. He thinks he can guarantee 41% of the electorate to his side. "Montenegro is so small, that the Djukanovic people know exactly how everyone is going to vote," said Braca Grubacic, a Belgrade analyst. The vote could bring an 8-9% majority for independence on a high turnout and still be invalid under the Solana rules, analysts pointed out, adding that Brussels would then have to deal with a crisis it had created. "The EU formula contains a virus dangerous for stability," said Mr Djukanovic. "The formula harms basic democratic principle. The decision should belong to the majority, not the minority." --------------------------- Montenegro's ruling party accepts EU referendum standards http://www.serbianna.com/news/2006/01327.html Montenegrin PM confident in winning majority in independence vote http://www.serbianna.com/news/2006/01321.html ---------------- http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/27/international/europe/27montenegro.html?pagewanted=print NY Times International Home February 27, 2006 Coming in May: A Possible Balkan Divorce By NICHOLAS WOOD BELGRADE, Serbia, Feb. 26 — The European Union's chief foreign policy envoy, Javier Solana, in a statement on Sunday, urged Montenegro's independence movement to accept proposals intended to shape a referendum on its future. Montenegro, the small Balkan republic that was once part of Yugoslavia and now remains in an uneasy federation with the much larger Serbia, is planning to hold a vote in mid-May that could lead to its becoming an independent state. How the referendum is conducted is widely seen as critical to the stability of the region, with Western officials fearing that a disputed outcome could lead to unrest, or a possible movement to split the mountainous country geographically. Mr. Solana, and his envoy to the region, Miroslav Lajcak of Slovakia, have urged Montenegro's pro-independence government and its opposition, which wants to remain in the union with Serbia, to agree on clear rules ahead of the vote. The envoys have suggested that the country be allowed to secede from the federation if 55 percent of voters choose independence and 50 percent of the electorate take part in the vote. In the statement issued Sunday, Mr. Solana's office urged the Montenegrin government to follow the opposition's example. "A similar decision by the government coalition would allow the referendum process to begin immediately, under the best auspices and with the full backing of the European Union," said Cristina Gallach, Mr. Solana's spokeswoman. It was Mr. Solana who brokered a new constitution in 2003 between Serbia and Montenegro, bringing a formal end to the Yugoslav federation. The 2003 agreement provided for the possibility of a referendum this year. On Saturday, Montenegro's opposition parties agreed to back the European proposals. A meeting of European foreign ministers in Brussels is expected to endorse the recommendations on Monday. But the Montenegrin government has indicated that it is against the guidelines. It wants the secession vote to be valid if 41 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots. It is not clear whether it would accept the 55 percent requirement or whether it would press for approval by a simple majority of those who vote. With opinion polls indicating a narrow margin of voters in favor of separation from Serbia, the Montenegrin government is concerned that the Europeans' proposed guidelines would give the pro-Serb minority an unfair hold over the republic. "The decision belongs to the majority and not the minority," Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic said Thursday, regional news agencies reported. "The E.U.'s formula contains a virus that is dangerous to the stability of society when it comes to the implementation of the results." The Montenegrin Parliament is expected to give its formal response to the European Union's proposal on Wednesday. Montenegro was internationally recognized as an independent state in 1878 but was absorbed into Yugoslavia at the end of the World War I. Throughout the 1990's, when the federation still called itself Yugoslavia, Montenegro set itself apart from Serbia's authoritarian rule under Slobodan Milosevic, who is now on trial by the international tribunal at The Hague. However, after the fall of Mr. Milosevic from government in elections in 2000, Mr. Djukanovic lost some Western support, notably over his failure to crack down on organized crime like the trafficking in cigarettes and people across the Adriatic Sea to Italy. There was also some concern among other nations that an independent Montenegro could add grist to separatist desires in two other places in the region — Kosovo, now a United Nations-administered Serbian province, and the Serb Republic within Bosnia. Since 2003 Mr. Djukanovic's party and his coalition partners have sought to cement the move toward independence. The republic, which has a population of just over 600,000, already has its own customs service, flag, national anthem and national holiday, and it uses the euro instead of the Serbian currency. Unlike Bosnia, Croatia, and Kosovo, former Yugoslav regions that all had ethnic conflict during the 1990's, Montenegro has remained largely peaceful. But the political divide over the republic's future has clear geographic boundaries, which diplomats here say could cause problems if the referendum has a disputed outcome. Most residents of the northeastern part of the country favor union with Serbia, while those in the southwest favor independence. =============== Group Moderator: [EMAIL PROTECTED] page at http://magazine.sorabia.net for more informations about current situation in Serbia http://www.sorabia.net Slusajte GLAS SORABIJE nas talk internet-radio (Serbian Only) http://radio.sorabia.net Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sorabia/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
