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Taking a licking in the Balkans 

Saturday, July 15, 2006 

The drubbing that Serbia and Montene gro's combined soccer team took in the 
World Cup last month is a metaphor for what's happening to the final remnants 
of the former Yugoslavia. 

The last chapters of Yugoslavia's end are being written in political backrooms 
instead of on the battlefield, but the final slice-up could still trigger a 
return to nationalist violence if solutions are forced on the region. 

In May, the tiny, mountainous republic of Montenegro took the democratic 
option. 

It voted to strike out on its own, achieving independence without a drop of 
blood spilled. But the voluntary defection of a nation whose majority 
population shares bloodlines, language and the Christian Orthodox religion with 
most Serbs was a huge psychological blow in Belgrade, where retro-nationalism 
is back in style. 

Now it all comes down to Kosovo, a province in southern Serbia whose people 
overwhelmingly favor an independence that its legal owner, Serbia, declines to 
grant. The international community has made little secret of its intention to 
break this logjam with a deciding vote for the ethnic Albanians who make up 90 
percent of Kosovo's populace and want out. 

There are four serious problems with this approach. 

First, it downgrades negotiations and makes the wishes of the affected people 
secondary to those of outsiders fed up with having to patrol and rule Kosovo 
themselves. Since a 1999 NATO air war wrested control of Kosovo from Serbian 
forces, NATO and U.S. troops have patrolled and the United Nations has ruled. 
Any imposed solution is likely to displease all sides. 

Second, it rewards lawlessness and ethnic retribution. The U.N. pretends 
security problems are history, but the reprisal murders of ethnic Serbs 
continue - the latest a 68-year-old man shot in his home. Ethnic Albanian 
police were attacked recently simply because they were patrolling with ethnic 
Serbs. Independence talks were supposed to follow ethnic reconciliation, not 
precede them. The likely outcome will be another ethnic exodus and violent 
reprisals. 

Third is the gleeful reaction from Moscow. Vladimir Putin has boasted about how 
he plans to cite Kosovo's independence as a precedent for the secession of 
pro-Russian, Christian ethnic enclaves in the former Soviet republics of 
Georgia and Azerbaijan. This is stoking fears about recharged independence 
movements from the Catalans and Basques in Spain to the Uighurs in China. 

Finally and most significantly will be the erosion of the bedrock principle of 
territorial sovereignty enshrined in the U.N. charter. The United Nations 
probably will have to approve any solution imposed on Serbia - putting it in 
the position of approving the abrogation of territorial sovereignty of a member 
nation. 

No wonder former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, the U.N. emissary trying 
to negotiate a way out of the Kosovo mess, reportedly is pressing to delay a 
resolution of the situation into next year. Washington, tired of having U.S. 
troops tied down in Kosovo, has made little secret that it wants forward 
movement by year's end. 

Artificial deadlines in this case are not helpful, particularly given the 
potential of this final slicing up of Serbia to propel ultranationalists into 
power. 

Serbia's reformers have found and returned the bodies of 836 murdered Kosovo 
Albanians hidden in mass graves around Serbia - the awful legacy of the most 
recent war. 

But more than 2,000 people are still missing from the Kosovo conflict, 
representing most ethnic groups in the formerly multiethnic province. 
Reconciliation and face-to-face talks are the best way to cure the pain of 
these deaths - not an imposed solution that would violate core tenets of 
international law and simply propel another cycle of ethnic repressions and 
separation. 


© 2006 The Plain Dealer
© 2006 cleveland.com All Rights Reserved.
http://www.cleveland.com/politics/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/opinion/1152952590240110.xml
 
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