New global trouble spot choose independence
http://g2.wnd.com/ Copyright © 2006 Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin DEEP BACKGROUND New global trouble spot chooses independence Russia's handling of Transnistria tied to Kosovo Publishing Date: 19.09.06 18:48 Moldova, in purple, with Transnistria, in yellow True to earlier G2 Bulletin predictions, the situation in the disputed territory of Transnistria has destabilized further on the local, regional and global levels. The fact that this thin strip of land separating Moldova and Ukraine can cause ripples on such a broad scale speaks volumes about the instability of the present international order. Last Sunday, Transnistrian voters overwhelmingly chose independence from Moldova, from which the territory broke away in 1991 in the aftermath of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, from which Moldova itself had separated. As reported by the Russian Information Agency Novosti, more than 389,000 voters (out of a population of about 550,000) were asked two questions - whether they want Transnistria's independence from Moldova and subsequent union with Russia, or whether the region should become part of Moldova. According to the Transnistrian election committee, 78.6 percent of voters participated in the referendum, of which 97.1 percent voted for independence and union with Russia. Novosti reports that more than130 international observers participated in monitoring the referendum in the breakaway republic and did not register any voting violations. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the OSCE, usually charged with giving the stamp of approval to European elections, has not recognized the referendum. As reported in March, the current crisis started when the Ukrainian government stopped the transit of consumer goods across the Ukrainian-Transnistrian border, requiring registry with Moldovan rather than Transnistrian customs. In response, Transnistria stopped the flow of Moldovan goods heading into Transnistria itself, or continuing on to Ukraine. Just before the referendum, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Novosti "the referendum is a reaction to the blockade that has been effectively imposed on Transdnestr (Russian name for Transnistria), an economic blockade that is hurting the region's economy and, needless to say, hurting its people." Transnistria's economics minister claims the region had lost over $300 million since the start of the blockade. Kosovos looms over all However, the significance of the vote far outstrips either the turnout or the economics of the vote. For it is the Kosovo issue that has colored the comments of Russian officials regarding the Transnistrian referendum. Head of the Russian Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and Relations with Compatriots Andrei Kokoshin said to the Russian REGNUM agency that the referendum outcome "undoubtedly should be taken into account by the international community. ... Those who believe that the Kosovo issue will not impact the situation in different parts of the world, are mistaken." He further emphasized that the Kosovo issue had a serious impact on public opinion in Transnistria. At the same time, Kokoshin continued, "many Western politicians prefer to call the Kosovo precedent a separate special issue which should not be extrapolated to other similar situations." Kokoshin was referring to the oft-repeated Russian position on Kosovo as outlined at Russian President Vladimir Putin's annual press conference Jan. 31, when, speaking of the Western push to recognize the independence of the Serbian province, Putin said "the solution to Kosovo must be based on universal principles that are applicable everywhere." Putin said "if someone considers that Kosovo should be given full independence, then why must we refuse this to the Abhkazians or South Ossetians," the majority populations in two breakaway regions of the Republic of Georgia. According to REGNUM, another deputy in the Russian parliament, Viktor Alksnis, stated the following at a Sept. 17 press conference in the Transnistrian capital of Tiraspol: "After our delegation returns to Moscow, the state Duma will issue an address to Russian President Vladimir Putin requesting him that Russia one-sidedly recognize Transdnestr independence. Moreover, I am inclined to think that such a decision will be taken. ... Consequently, Putin will have some serious trump cards in his deck, which will be used during the talks with the EU concerning the necessity to retract from the double-standards policy. I believe that Russia will one-sidedly recognize Transdnestr independence." The "double-standards policy" to which Alksnis refers is yet another reference to Kosovo and the West's approach to it. Western powers, led by the U.S. and Britain, are pressuring Serbia to give up its Kosovo province, which Serbs consider the cradle of their statehood, and are pushing for the UN-led talks on the province's future to wind down by the end of the year and produce a decision - independence for Kosovo's predominantly Muslim Albanian majority. Further, the Western argument has been that the Kosovo case is "unique," a result of specific historical circumstances and cannot be applied anywhere else. Needless to say, the Serbian leadership is firmly refusing to even discuss independence. On its part, Moscow repeatedly has argued that the recognition of Kosovo's independence would necessarily set a precedent for other disputed regions throughout the world and is insisting on a universal model that would stabilize the international order. And, while Russia recently has gone so far as to state that it would use its power of veto at the U.N. Security Council to stop a resolution calling for Kosovo's independence, the Russian fear the U.S. may circumvent the U.N. altogether and encourage the Kosovo Albanian leaders to unilaterally "declare independence," opening the door to its recognition by other states and presenting Russia with a done deed. This likely is why Russia has supported both the holding of the Transnistrian independence referendum at this particular time and its results, regardless of the fact Western states have shown no intention of recognizing Transnistria. Thus, Transistria can be seen as Russia's last warning to the West against a unilateral recognition of Kosovo's independence. Or it may be seen as Russia's projected first move in the new international game that would follow Kosovo's independence, a game of multiple state recognitions, with no bounds, no time limit and no rules. If Western states recognize Kosovo, Russia won't. Conversely, however, even if the West never recognizes Transnistria, Russia will. The number of disputed territories to which this approach may be applied are unlimited, as are the potentials for conflict. --G2B contributor Aleksandar Pavic =============== Group Moderator: [EMAIL PROTECTED] page at http://magazine.sorabia.net for more informations about current situation in Serbia http://www.sorabia.net Slusajte GLAS SORABIJE nas talk internet-radio (Serbian Only) http://radio.sorabia.net Yahoo! 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