Serbia: The Bee Hive of the Balkans
Can Karpat,
AIA Balkan Section
Serbia, which has just adopted a new Constitution, heads towards early
elections. According to the media speculations, the general elections would
take place either in late December this year or in spring 2007. And the big
wigs of the international community began to give the signal that the
postponement of the Kosovo final status until after elections in Serbia is now
a serious option. Will they really avoid inserting the stick into the most
unpredictable bee hive of the Balkans?
Constitution: Not without Kosovo
In 1913, after the Balkan wars, the Ottoman Empire lost almost all of its
European territory. While retreating, Ottoman officers promised those peoples,
who had still some sense of loyalty to the declining Empire, that they would be
back one day. The preamble of the new Serbian Constitution, which mentions
Kosovo as the “constituent part of Serbia’s territory”, has no valour than the
hollow promise of those Ottoman officers.
Serbian Parliament approves new Constitution. Vojislav Kostunica (L) and Boris
Tadic (photo: AP) <http://www.axisglobe.com/Image/2006/10/07/Serbia/3.jpg>
Serbian Parliament approves new Constitution
Many criticise this preamble as non-realistic, defiant or even belligerent. In
fact, none of these qualifications are correct. Serbia would not have drawn up
no other preamble but this, for two main reasons.
First, it is an incontestable fact that Kosovo is still de facto part of
Serbia. Secondly, given the official position of Belgrade at the status talks
<http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=1067> , Serbia would not have
been expected to trip up herself by omitting to mention Kosovo as an integral
part of the country.
Therefore, this preamble is nothing but the logical continuation of the legal
fiction, according to which Kosovo is still part of Serbia. Far from being a
belligerent act, this is a just a symbolic gesture, an indirect message to the
Serbian minority of <http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=858> Kosovo
-and to the Serbian electorate of course- that assures that “we will be back
one day”. Since no Serbian politician would ever sign the independence of
Kosovo, these politicians will then be able to carry on with this fiction for
years to come.
And after all, the preamble of the new Serbian Constitution is not that
belligerent as long as it mentions a territory that still de facto belongs to
the country as its own. For example, the preamble of the Armenian Constitution
openly demands the eastern region of the neighbouring country, Turkey. In spite
of Turkey’s numerous protests, the international community does not seem to
care about this only too obvious belligerence from Armenia.
Referendum: With what electorate?
Serbian Parliament decided that the referendum on the new Constitution should
be held on 28th October. In order to be valid, the new Constitution must be
approved by the majority of the electorate.
In Serbia there are around 6.533.000 registered voters. However, some 1.300.000
are from Kosovo. Only 186.000 of them are ethnic Serbs.
This is an impossible situation:
- To exclude the Kosovo Albanians from the electorate would be not only
democratically condemnable, but also contradictory. After all, why vote for a
Constitution that claims Kosovo as the integral part of Serbia while excluding
the inhabitants of this region from the electorate?
- To include them would be most ironic, for no Albanian would ever vote for a
Constitution in which Kosovo is mentioned as an integral part of Serbia.
Moreover, here are three facts that make the situation even more complicated:
- Counting the Kosovo Albanian voters would increase the number of the Serbian
electorate. If the Albanians boycotted the referendum -which is more than
probable-, the adoption of the new Constitution would be seriously endangered,
since it must be approved by the majority of the electorate.
- To establish a new electoral list which would exclude the Kosovo Albanians
would be very contradictory, for in such case, the preamble of the Constitution
would be automatically invalid.
- For Serbia has no real control on Kosovo, it is physically impossible for the
Republic Election Commission (RIK) to determine an electoral list with exact
number of voters. And the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) has no permanent
electoral list.
How the RIK will resolve this intriguing situation is indeed a real legal and
political curiosity.
The matrix: Early elections in Serbia
Early elections in Serbia became the matrix according to which the exact
timeline of the Kosovo final status will be determined. According to the
speculations, the general elections would take place either in late December
this year or in spring 2007.
Recent statements made by UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari and EU foreign
policy and security chief Javier Solana insinuate that the postponement of the
Kosovo final status until after elections in Serbia is now a serious option.
Last decision is up to the six-nation Contact Group. As to the timeline, it is
known that the EU and Russia are more flexible and tolerant than the USA that
insists for the end of 2006 as the timeline for the Kosovo status solution.
Note that four countries of the Contact Group are EU-members and the other one
is Russia.
Kosovo Prime Minister Agim Ceku warned that the postponement of the decision
would increase risks and tensions. It seems that the international community
must choose the least evil between two probabilities: risks and tensions
created by the Serbs or risks and tensions created by the Albanians. One could
claim that a possible delay would be easier for the Albanians to tolerate since
the happy end unconditionally awaits them at the end of the process. However,
with Serbia, things are a bit more complicated.
On the one hand, according to the polls, the two leading parties of these
elections are expected to be Tomislav Nikolic’s Serbian Radical
<http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=830> Party (SRS) and Boris
Tadic’s Democratic Party <http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=739>
(DS). In this regard, cooperation between DS and Vojislav Kostunica’s
Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) is essential in order to halt the rise of the
Radicals. Will the two frères ennemies make truce for the sake of their
country?
On the other hand, both opinion polls and sociological research show that the
Serbian people are in fact somehow ready for Kosovo’s independence. And their
main concern is the current difficult economic situation as any other standard
electorate in any country. However, a wounded national pride should never be
underestimated.
Thus the chances are fifty-fifty. Serbia obviously needs time. And it would be
wise for the international community to grant a little break as long as it
costs nothing.
Some analysts worry that for electoral reasons the pro-Western politicians
indulge themselves in nationalistic rhetoric in order to nullify the propaganda
of the Radicals, and that they become more inflexible than ever on the Kosovo
status in their turn thereafter.
However, there is a basic difference between the Democrats and the Radicals:
the former does not live in a political dreamland and are not keen for
uncertain adventures. That is why, at the negotiation table, to confront Boris
Tadic is always preferable than to confront Vojislav Seselj.
Relatem items:
Serbia or Swan that <http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=1067>
Refuses to Sing its Final Song in Kosovo (17.09.06)
Balkans under the <http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=1010> Threat
of a Fragmentation Bomb Called Kosovo (03.08.06)
Serbia: Between Empire <http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=1000> of
Heaven and Empire of Earth Again (23.07.06)
>From the Wisdom of <http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=929>
>Suffocating Serbia (22.06.06)
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