http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/ian_traynor/2007/01/post_873.html
The Guardian (U.K.) January 5, 2007 A fate as clear as mud After a year of hopeless negotiations, the UN is preparing to pronounce on Kosovo's future. What kind of country will it be? Ian Traynor A new country called Kosovo will be born in 2007, attended by Albanian joy, Serbian bitterness and flight, and international anxiety. There will be violence in the air. What kind of country will it be? There has been a year of hopeless UN-mediated negotiations between Serbs and Kosovo Albanians over the status of the contested province in the southern Balkans and, as the UN fixer, Martti Ahtisaari, prepares to pronounce on what should become of Kosovo, its fate is as clear as mud. The simplest thing that can be said of the likely outcome to an 11-week war, seven years of lacklustre UN administration, and a year of negotiations is a negative - Kosovo will no longer be Serbian. As for the rest, the "independence" to be proposed by Ahtisaari will be so hedged with conditions, undermined by protests, clouded by international and diplomatic manoeuvrings and manipulations as to leave the province a festering sore. Add Kosovo to the lengthening list of the world's "frozen conflicts". This may be the very intention of Vladimir Putin who shows every sign of blocking an international consensus and delaying or maybe vetoing a UN security council resolution on Kosovo independence in March. Formally the Russians say they are against any "solution being imposed" on the fellow Orthodox-Slav Serbs who will never accept Kosovo independence. The Russians are also reluctant to redraw the map of the Balkans, although that map has been comprehensively redrawn over the past 15 years. Both Belgrade and Moscow are currently arguing against "artificial deadlines" and insisting that negotiations between Serbs and Kosovan Albanians can carry on indefinitely. This is a non-starter for the Kosovans. The internationals have already put a decision off to accommodate the Serbs (await the results of this month's crucial elections in Serbia). That dismayed the Albanians. They will not countenance further delays. And the Russians, as members of the "contact group" of six countries that is steering the diplomatic process, are party to decisions and statements over the past year that promised a resolution in 2006, said there would be no partition of Kosovo, and ruled that any decision had to be supported by the Kosovo majority. That unambiguously means independence. If Mr Putin has now walked away from those commitments, he has his own interests in mind in seeking what advantage he can derive from the Kosovo conundrum, interests that have little to do with pan-Slav solidarity or support for fellow Orthodox. Formally Kosovo is part of Serbia (Belgrade is offering the Kosovo Albanians home rule and wide-ranging autonomy, but insisting that another country cannot be established on "15% of its territory"), but has been under UN control and ethnic Albanian government since the Serbs were kicked out during the 1999 war against Nato. Mr Putin wants to use Kosovo as a precedent, and for the west to accept that Kosovo represents a precedent with a view to Russia's stake in other frozen post-Soviet conflicts, mainly in the Caucasus. Namely this is in Abkhazia where the Russians support and facilitate a secession from Georgia; likewise in South Ossetia, and in Transdniestria, the tiny sliver of separatist pro-Russian Moldova maintained by Russian troops and funded by Russian organised crime. The west rejects the parallel, arguing, not entirely convincingly, that Kosovo is sui generis, a one-off that has no bearing in international law on other secessionist conflicts. Yugoslavia unravelled 15 years ago. The Serbs tried and failed to keep as much as possible through war and ethnic pogroms. But Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, and Macedonia went their own ways. Only last year Montenegro, too, abandoned Serbia and struck out on its own. Kosovo is the last bit. Why should it be condemned to remain with Serbia when everyone else has fled, when the province's 2 million Albanians are set against that and have been to war to prevent it. The Serbian argument is to ignore the events of the past 15 years and to insist that Kosovo was, is, and shall remain a province of Serbia, not of former Yugoslavia. Since there is absolutely no chance of any meeting of minds here, Ahtisaari is charged with proposing the settlement terms, which are rubber-stamped by the security council and then imposed. But the nuances and ambiguities being proposed may leave ample scope for conflict. Kosovo will be taken away formally from Serbia, but its "independence" will be conditional and supervised. Kosovo will become a ward of the European Union (as opposed to the UN). Its "sovereignty" will be incomplete, in reality non-existent. Ultimate authority will lie with commissars from Brussels. International recognition may be voluntary and selective. So Serbia refuses to recognise Kosovo, maintains its claim, tries to pressure and bully Balkan neighbours into not recognising Kosovo. Russia (and probably China) do not recognise Kosovo's independence. It is denied a seat at the UN. The result is frustration, tension, and possible violence. For western policy-makers, the key aim is stability. The outcome, however, may be months if not years of instability. --------------- =============== Group Moderator: [EMAIL PROTECTED] page at http://magazine.sorabia.net for more informations about current situation in Serbia http://www.sorabia.net Slusajte GLAS SORABIJE nas talk internet-radio (Serbian Only) http://radio.sorabia.net Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sorabia/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sorabia/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
