The Providence Journal    February 13, 2007
Editorial  / COMMENTARY
- Parastatehood - Kosovo: A future with no future

P. H. Liotta


ON MARCH 24, 1999, the then-19-member NATO alliance launched
its first and only assault in history on a sovereign
nation-state. In the words of President Bill Clinton, NATO
forces took this action against former Yugoslavia "to obtain
a peaceful solution to the crisis in Kosovo." After 78 days
of intense bombing, largely led by U.S. air forces, on
targets inside Serbia, and after what was then considered an
exorbitant cost of $10 billion, former Finnish president
Marti Ahtisaari and U.S. diplomat Richard Holbrooke persuaded
Slobodan Miloevic to agree to the cessation of hostilities in
former Yugoslavia.

Eight years later, Ahtisaari is still trying to find a
solution to the crisis in Kosovo. His prospects for success
seem no better today than in the past. As the United Nations
special envoy, Ahtisaari recently unveiled a plan for Kosovo
that, while not granting independence per se, does allow
increased autonomy for the region and for its predominantly
ethnic-Albanian population.

In principle, the U.N. plan seems reasonable. U.N.
administration of Kosovo would be replaced by an
International Civilian Representative, who would have the
power to veto any "government" decisions for an undefined
period of time. The Kosovo Protection Force, the only
equivalent today of a military force in Kosovo, would be
disbanded. Ethnic Serbs in Kosovo would be granted autonomy,
"protected zones" would be established around Serbian
cultural and religious sites, and a Constitutional Commission
would be established that would begin both the drafting of a
constitution and the initial first steps toward Kosovo's
independence.

Not surprisingly, Serbia immediately rejected these U.N.
proposals. Even Serbia's moderate and pro-Western president,
Boris Tadic, dismissed Ahtisaari's visit out of hand,
declaring that "Serbia and I, as its president, will never
accept Kosovo's independence." Serbia's prime minister,
Vojislav Kotunica, the political figure who challenged and
defeated Slobodan Miloevic in Yugoslavia's "Bulldozer
Revolution" of 2000, refused to even meet with U.N.
representatives.

Thus, despite new meetings between the European Union and the
Russian Federation to come to common agreement, and to
prevent a Russian veto in the U.N. Security Council, there is
little hope for success. The U.N. proposal for Kosovo,
pragmatic as it may seem, is dead on arrival.

More radical "solutions" to the Kosovo problem, which some in
the international community advocate, include the partition
of Kosovo - ceding northern Kosovo and its Serbian enclaves
back to Serbia and creating in essence a separate state for
Kosovar Albanians. Such "solutions," of course, are not
solutions at all. Such solutions overlook the raw truth that
American forces are now in their sixth decade of deployment
on the Korean Peninsula and U.N. forces are now in their
fifth decade of deployment in Cyprus - and such deployments
are the partial result of partitions that do not lead to
resolution and peace. To the contrary, partition covers a
bleeding wound, which never heals.

It may be a clich but it is also true that after a conflict,
you can have one of two things: peace or revenge. You cannot
have both. None of the entities that collide over Kosovo -
Albania, Serbia, the United States, the European Union, the
Russian Federation - seem to accept this truth. Moreover,
Serbia, a nation desperate to return to the fold of Europe
after its foolish mistakes of the 1990s, has received
virtually no incentives from the so-called international
community to move from its intransigence. To the contrary,
Serbia is threatened with punishment, removal of financial
and development assistance, and assaulted for its insistence
on the principle of sovereignty.

Yet Serbia has every reason to be immovable on this subject.
Kosovo is still a part of the sovereign nation-state of
Serbia. But Kosovo is also an international protectorate,
which the international community - not Serbia - bears
responsibility for. Kosovo, in short, is no longer Serbia's
problem. It's ours.

Few dare to recognize as well that Kosovo, even if it were to
achieve independence, would immediately become a "parastate"
- a region rich in resource scarcity and rife for criminal
networks and drug trafficking. (By some estimates, 90 percent
of heroin and opium that transit from Central Asia to Europe
today already passes through Kosovo, under the eyes of
international "protection" forces.) Kosovo, at its worst,
could become a para-state with Night of the Living Dead
zombie-like characteristics, possessing some functioning
aspects of statehood while at the same time missing an eye or
multiple limbs, staggering into the future and unable to
function without massive forms of continued international
life support. Kosovo, sadly, could become a permanent
dependency state. Ironically, Kosovo would also need to rely
on its nemesis, Serbia, for trade, markets, and exchange.

Eight years later, Kosovo's future seems to be no future at
all. During the intervention of 1999, those who justified
intervention saw it as an example for the NATO alliance to
prove its mettle - and to do good. Today, it is not an idle
comparison to suggest that if Kosovo cannot be solved, how
could anyone - especially those vying for the presidency of
the United States in 2008 - possibly believe that the
disaster of Iraq, where the stakes are higher and the outcome
more critical to our direct security, will fare any better?

P. H. Liotta is executive director of the Pell Center for
International Relations and Public Policy at Salve Regina
University, and the author of Dismembering the State:
The Death of Yugoslavia and Why It Matters.

(c) 2007 Providence Journal/Evening Bulletin.


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