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Give up Kosovo to join EU: Not as enticing to Serbia as West thinks By Nicholas Wood Friday, September 14, 2007 BELGRADE: Eight years after it was hit by NATO airstrikes, the former Yugoslav Defense Ministry still lies in ruins, a reminder of what the Serbs consider unwarranted aggression by the West in the war over the Serbian province of Kosovo. Their anger is flaring up again as Western governments, particularly the United States, speak of recognizing Kosovo this year as an independent state. The West says that in the absence of reconciliation, doing so would help stabilize the region by officially separating the Serbs from the ethnic Albanians who are the majority population of Kosovo. Serbian politicians, even pro-Western ones, say that they worry that a recognition of Kosovo would introduce a new era of Serbian isolation and hostility toward the West - leaving Europe with little sway here. Since the war ended in 1999, Europe has tried to integrate Serbia into NATO and the European Union. And as a regional power, Serbia expected an easy pathway into Europe, especially since many of its neighbors have joined the union. But Europe has also demanded that Serbs make a fresh start by chasing down important war crimes suspects wanted at the tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague. Serbia has complied only fitfully. If Western countries do recognize Kosovo, then "we do not need the European Union," Velimir Ilic, Serbia's minister for infrastructure and a key political ally of the Serbian prime minister, said in an interview. "It means they are not our friends." He added: "It is a tough choice, but Serbia has its pride and its integrity." Ilic, who has a reputation as a populist politician, is the only senior government politician to issue such a statement. But others agree that a nationalist backlash would chill relations with the West. A widespread recognition of Kosovo "could lead to a chain of events with unforeseen consequences, including the loss of Serbia's European perspective," Leon Koen, the former head of Serbia's negotiating team on the province, wrote in the newspaper Dnevnik. And Serbia's senior diplomat for European integration predicted that whatever support there is among Serbs for arresting war crimes suspects and sending them to The Hague would vanish if Kosovo was recognized. "I can't see how anybody would be ready to support cooperation" with the tribunal, said Milica Delevic, a reformist who is Serbia's assistant foreign minister responsible for relations with the EU. "We will be in trouble." Western governments are determined to resolve Kosovo's future to stabilize the province and calm the ethnic Albanians who make up more than 90 percent of the population and who largely clamor for independence. The United States has spoken openly of recognizing Kosovo and is pushing the Europeans to settle on a policy. But the Europeans have painted themselves into a corner, having pushed for a deal at the United Nations Security Council that Russia has blocked. That leaves Europe divided just as it is trying to display a strong foreign policy. Kosovo has been administered by the United Nations since 1999, after a NATO bombing campaign to oust Serbian forces who had committed widespread atrocities against ethnic Albanians. The wartime Yugoslav president, Slobodan Milosevic, was defeated in elections in 2000 and turned over to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague, where he died while his trial was under way. Yugoslavia continued its devolution, with Montenegro finally claiming independence from Serbia in May of 2006. Meanwhile, Serbia has made faltering progress toward membership of both the EU and NATO. It hopes to complete formal agreements on closer ties with the EU this year. Last year, Serbia became a member of the NATO partnership for peace program, one step short of full membership in the alliance. Senior members of Serbia's pro-Western Democratic Party - including President Boris Tadic and Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic - have reassured Western allies that Belgrade remains committed to membership in Euro-Atlantic institutions regardless of what happens in Kosovo. But signs of a break with the West are emerging, and officials close to Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica are advocating a closer relationship with Russia, the ally that so far has forestalled attempts in the Security Council to grant Kosovo independence. Political analysts said that conservative newspapers and state-owned media have promoted more-favorable views of Russia and of President Vladimir Putin in particular. At the same time, conservatives within Kostunica's circle are questioning the value of ties with NATO. "We want cooperation but not full membership," said Dusan Prorokovic, Serbia's state secretary for Kosovo and a senior member of Kostunica's Serbian Democratic party, adding that most Serbs have never forgiven the alliance for its entry into the war and 78-day bombing campaign. "Personally, I cannot forget that." Two senior government ministers have accused NATO of trying to make Kosovo a state for its own purposes. In fact, public support for NATO has never been high, and skepticism of the European Union has increased as negotiations drag on, according to opinion poll professionals. Support for EU membership fell to 53 percent in August, according to the Strategic Marketing agency. "The debate is being steered in a direction that makes strategy toward NATO membership and the European Union very difficult," said Delevic, the assistant foreign minister responsible for relations with the EU. European Union officials, meanwhile, insist that a compromise between ethnic Albanians and Serbs is possible. Whatever the outcome, officials in Brussels argue that Serbia's long-term interests lie with the West. "I don't think Serbs want to be part of the Russian Federation. They see their future in the European Union," Cristina Gallach, a spokeswoman for Javier Solana, the EU chief foreign policy representative, said in a telephone interview. But as the decision time for Kosovo looms, regional analysts said that the nationalists who dominate Serbia's Parliament control events in the country. "People in Brussels presume that every country in Europe is dying to get into the European Union," said James Lyon, Belgrade director of the International Crisis Group, a policy research group with offices throughout the Balkans. But if Kosovo splits off, Lyon said in a telephone interview, Europe's leverage over Serbia will evaporate, along with its ability to promote reform. "What do you do with a country that doesn't want EU membership?" he asked. _____ Notes: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/14/europe/serbia.php _____ <http://www.iht.com/> International Herald TribuneCopyright © 2007 The International Herald Tribune | www.iht.com http://statse.webtrendslive.com/dcsvgnood10000w0atsza69tn_3m9q/njs.gif?dcsuri=/nojavascript&WT.js=No&WT.tv=1.0.7 [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
