http://www.thoughtleader.co.za/grantwalliser/2007/12/07/no-independence-for-kosovo/
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Grant Walliser
High Voltage
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No independence for Kosovo
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The imminent independence of the province of Kosovo from Serbia is at present
the topic of hot debate and flaring tempers up north.
The United States and many European nations are solidly backing the call for an
independent Kosovo, while Serbia and her long-time ally Russia are vociferously
against such a move. The pro-independence faction cites democracy and an end to
ethnic and religious tensions as the main reason for taking its stance, and
views Russias opposing view as muscle-flexing and backing a long-time friend
and ally in Serbia.
While there is much to be said for the merits of a fluffy democracy being
patched together from a war-ravaged region, the motives of the pro-independence
lobby do not appear to be any more sincere than they were when it invaded Iraq
to liberate its people and find those weapons of mass destruction to save us
all from certain doom. To push Serbia into accepting the loss of a sizeable
chunk of its sovereign territory without actually being sensitive to the
history and the implications would be to create another Israeli-Palestinian
conflict right on Europes doorstep.
The history of Kosovo, and the Balkans in general, is complex, bloody, much
manipulated and a subject often devolving into fierce argument. However, the
generally agreed facts are:
Slavic tribes comprising the nucleus of people that became the modern Serbs
moved south and settled the lands of present-day Serbia and Kosovo during the
fifth and sixth centuries BC. That means that Serbs have been present there for
more than 1 400 years. Albanians as a collective people were first recorded in
1043, in Greece and not Kosovo, roughly 500 years after the Serbs had settled
the area. Efforts to place them as a people in Kosovo using linguistic
techniques before this time have ended in pure speculation. Roughly speaking,
Serbs controlled Kosovo for the next 800 years before losing a major battle in
1389 on Kosovo soil to the Turks of the Ottoman Empire, a solemnly infamous
battle in Serbian history. There is some record of Albanians fighting on the
Serbian side in the battle, but whether they came from present-day Albania or
Kosovo is not known. At this time fewer than 2% of the farms and homesteads in
Kosovo were Albanian by census. During
Ottoman rule, the majority of Albanians and a few Serbs converted to Islam to
avoid paying oppressive taxes, but most Serbs were driven wholesale from Kosovo
and by the end of the 19th century, the Albanian population eventually
outnumbered the Serbian population in the region for the first time. During the
Balkan wars of 1912, Serbia again gained control over its long-lost province of
Kosovo, then promptly lost it when the Albanians in the region sided with the
central powers in World War I and drove it out again. The Serbs then took
control after the war and were promptly driven out by Albanian fascist forces
that sided with Germany and Italy in World War II. During the war, thousands of
Serbs were killed by the Albanian army more than 100 000 were driven out of
Kosovo and actively replaced by ethnic Albanians from Albania as part of that
governments policy to dominate Kosovo ethnically. That is an event that
happened in living memory for many
older Serbs in the 1990s. After the war, Kosovo became a Serbian province yet
again and part of Yugoslavia. Under Tito, Kosovo was given federal autonomy in
order to weaken Serbia and thus strengthen Yugoslavia. Albanian numbers
increased rapidly to the point where today they represent 90% of the
population. Albanians used various tactics, including violence and protests, to
push constantly for an independent, Albanian-controlled state. Milosevic used
this as a catalyst to mobilise Serbs against them in the most recent Kosovo war
that we all saw on TV. European negotiators actually brokered a ceasefire
during the Kosovo war that was promptly broken by the Albanian KLA (Kosovo
Liberation Army) while Serbian forces were retreating. That brought new Serbian
reprisals. Nato began bombing Serbian positions in Kosovo and eventually key
strategic targets in Serbia and Montenegro, one of the most famous of which was
a stray bomb that flattened the Chinese
embassy on the outskirts of Belgrade, the shell and rubble of which can still
be seen today among apartment blocks. Since the end of the war, the UN has
administered Kosovo. Hundreds of thousands of Kosovo Serbs have fled Kosovo for
Serbia after Albanian ethnic violence against them and the burning of Serbian
Orthodox churches and homes. The UN is largely impotent in containing regular
Albanian reprisals against the Serbian population living in Kosovo today.
While this is a much-summarised history, I think it presents a few interesting
points for debate. Firstly, one should perhaps modify the view of the
much-maligned Serbs being the only bad boys in this nasty spat. Nobody could
argue that Serbian forces did not commit atrocities in recent times. Judging by
the history of the place, however, it was simply the next swing of the deadly
pendulum that has now, with Natos heavy-handed help, since swung back yet
again.
It would seem that the Nato bombing campaign needed a baddie to appear
justified, and the Serbs fitted the bill nicely at the time. The Western media
played ball and what was actually a simple decisive strategic action to end war
being waged too close for comfort to European borders became the usual
good-versus-evil Star Wars fodder dished up to us by US broadcasters. This has
placed the Serbs on to the moral low ground during the current negotiations for
Kosovo. How differently we would have looked at this if the snapshot were taken
during World War II when the Albanians were bedfellows of the Germans and
Italians and engaged in their own campaign of ethnic cleansing just 60 years
ago.
Within that argument lies embedded the deeper issue: Should Kosovo be granted
its independence and on what grounds? Anyone on the ground knows that
independence means Albanian control, a probable coalition with Albania itself
and hellish reprisals against the last 100 000 Serbs living in the region as
soon as Nato moves out. Of course it is an extremely attractive proposition for
the Nato countries patrolling the area. They could extricate themselves from
the mess into which they bombed themselves, claim to have installed a
democracy, stop paying aid and separate the Serbs and Albanians for good. Its
attractive too for the Albanian majority who get control of territory they have
been fighting over for hundreds of years.
What of the Serbs, though? They clearly have a strong legitimate historical
claim to the territory, the territory is still a province of Serbia, the Nato
invasion and occupation of sovereign territory was a breach of international
law and external powers are now deciding that Serbias national and religious
homeland will be removed regardless of their thoughts on the matter. It would
appear they have a right to be concerned about the events in progress when you
review the facts.
Enter Russia. It is looking past the emotive issues and is worried about
precedent. If Kosovo is successful in its independence struggle, it will set a
precedent and give hope to regional minorities the world over that they too can
win their autonomy and govern themselves. Russia is up to its eyeballs in
candidates there! It would seem it is thinking further ahead than Europe and
the US are.
Notable exceptions to the Nato voice include Spain. The Spanish are concerned
about independence claims in its Basque region. What about Sri Lanka, the
Congo, Sudan, Indonesia, India (Oranje?) and countless other regions with
minority groups pushing for independence? All have the same potential problem
and that does not even begin to address the growing issue of rapidly increasing
minority populations in parts of Western Europe and the US.
How would the US react, for example, if Florida declared its independence in
2020 because it had a majority Spanish-speaking population that aligned itself
more with Castro than Bush? No different to the Serbian situation in theory,
perhaps, but would it apply the same precedent and allow the independence it is
pushing so hard for in Kosovo? I somehow think not.
Independence for Kosovo is looking like a hasty Nato patch-job for a prickly
problem, and rather than fix the mess it could create a whole new era of
instability, not just in Kosovo but also the world in general. There must be a
possible compromise, perhaps involving a partition of Kosovo that includes
important religious and historical sites being incorporated into Serbia and
similar concessions made for the Albanians.
Alternatively, federal autonomous control but not independence has already been
extended by Serbia to Kosovo but rejected outright as a solution by the
Albanians, who sense that they can gobble up the whole cake so why accept a
slice? It seems reasonable, given the history and the investment by both sides,
to revisit this idea. This proposal also has merit when you consider that
Kosovos economy is largely dependent on Serbian consumption for its survival
and the reality for Kosovo, should it break away, could be economic collapse.
Whatever the final outcome, it is sure to set minds and wheels in motion around
the world. The turbulent Balkans might even hold the key to future European and
global stability as they so often have in the past. Its not the time for a
Band-Aid when stitches are required.
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