Prosecan srpski glasac treba da cita ove izjave da bi se uverio kakve spteltke
nepostojeca "medjunarodna zajednica" - EU plete Srbiji, pa da im bude zauvek
jasno da clanstva Srbije u tzv EU nece biti - kao i da ce da nastave sa
beskonacnim optuzivanjima Srbije za zlocine i sve ono sto je Zapad pocinio
Srbima u ime demokratije. Zbog toga bi mozda trebalo glasati za "promene" i
dati Nikolicu mandat predsednika Srbije. B.
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http://www.iwpr.net/?p=tri&s=f&o=342028&apc_state=henh
New Chief Prosecutor, Fresh Approach?
Serge Brammertz may need to adopt new tactics to persuade Belgrade to hand over
fugitives.
By Caroline Tosh in London (TU No 534, 18-Jan-08)
In his first public statement as chief prosecutor at Yugoslav tribunal in The
Hague, Serge Brammertz this week set out how he would fulfil his mandate before
the court closes in three years time.
An absolute priority, he said, was bringing the remaining four fugitives
particularly Bosnian Serb army commander General Ratko Mladic and wartime
political leader Radovan Karadzic - to face trial in The Hague.
Brammertz, who at the beginning of January was appointed chief prosecutor of
the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, ICTY, said that
in the coming weeks he planned to discuss the issue of cooperation with the
tribunal in talks with the authorities in the former Yugoslav republics and
with representatives of other countries and international organisations,
including the European Union.
His predecessor, the fiery Swiss lawyer Carla Del Ponte, was instrumental in
linking Serbias hopes of accession to the EU with cooperation with the
tribunal, and her use of media pressure against the Balkans is credited with
bringing dozens of fugitives to the Hague tribunal.
But observers say that while the promise of EU membership had leverage in the
past, it is no longer the carrot and stick it once was in securing Serbian
cooperation.
The EU is showing signs of giving Serbia an easier path to EU membership. Its
Slovenian presidency is eager to sign a Stabilisation and Accession Agreement,
SAA, with Serbia a precursor to future membership negotiations.
This would not only keep Serbia closer to Europe, but would also boost the
moderate president Boris Tadics chances against radical challenger Tomislav
Nikolic in the upcoming presidential elections.
"Full cooperation [with the tribunal] is one of the conditions [for the signing
of the SAA.] The problem is how we decide [what full cooperation is]," said
Slovenian foreign minister Dimitrij Rupel in an agency report published on
January 8.
Meanwhile, ongoing debate over Kosovos future and the imminent elections means
that cooperation with the ICTY is low on Belgrades list of priorities.
In recent months, Serbian prime minister Vojislav Kostunica has been growing
closer to Moscow, and the European Commission has expressed concern at Russian
energy giant Gazproms controversial takeover bid for Serbia's oil monopoly.
Kostunica has also warned that the SAA will be annulled if the EU carries out
its plan to send a civil mission of administrators and police to support
Kosovo once, as is expected, it becomes independent next month.
Although Serbia seems to be turning away from Europe, James Lyon of the
International Crisis Group believes the EU still has the power to force
Belgrade to hand over Karadzic and Mladic.
The EU and international community have shown that conditioning progress on EU
integration has worked with Serbia, he said. We have a proven track record of
this.
If enough pressure is put on Serbia, the [authorities] will arrest Mladic.
While Kostunica has no desire to join the EU, he cannot ignore the fact that
domestic opinion polls show consistently high public support for European
integration.
However, Lyon is concerned that the EU is currently trying to do a deal where
Serbia would get membership in return for a soft no on Kosovo, meaning that
Belgrade should effectively accept independence while continuing to object to
it in principle.
The problem with this is Serbia isn't going to do it they will not trade
Kosovo for EU membership. Brussels just doesn't seem to get it, said Lyon.
Political and economic analyst Braca Grubacic thinks that the only way the
remaining fugitives will end up in The Hague is if Brussels keeps up its
demands for full cooperation from Serbia.
At the moment, however, EU members have other things on their minds.
Most European countries are now more focused on what will happen with Kosovos
status and the European Mission in Kosovo, and what will be the result of the
Serbian presidential elections, and the ICTY is marginalised on the issue,
said Grubacic.
According to the analyst, while everybody knows Mladic is in Serbia, the
current government at this moment is absolutely not doing much on chasing after
[him] and there is no serious pressure from European Union to do it.
Dr Jonathan Eyal, director of international security studies at the Royal
United Services Institute, said that at present, the EU had little leverage in
pushing Serbia to deliver the men.
I do not believe that EU membership as such, at this particular moment, has
much influence in general, over Serbian politics, he said.
I think that the reality is that in Serbia itself, the whole issue [of
membership] is now related directly to Kosovo, and the rather offhand dismissal
by Mr Kostunica of what he calls trade-off between EU membership and the loss
of Kosovo has transformed the debate.
So how should the new chief prosecutor proceed in persuading Serbia to hand
over the suspects?
Lyon argues that it is vital for Brammertz to maintain Del Pontes policy of
pressing the EU to insist that Serbia hands over the remaining fugitives before
it can join.
Experience shows that when the EU softens its stance, this only leads to
reduced cooperation from Belgrade, he argues. The minute [the EU] backs down
and start to show flexibility towards Serbia, Serbia stops all cooperation, and
we see this time and again, he said.
Lyon dismissed any suggestion that discussions over the fugitives be shelved
until the Kosovos future is settled, pointing out with a 2010 deadline looming
for the tribunal to finish its work, the pressure is on.
He argues that as long as Karadzic and Mladic continue to evade justice, the
possibility of further conflict in the Balkans remains.
The wars in the Balkans will not end until these people are brought to
justice, he said.
If we put off these guys arrests, we need to be aware that there will be
renewed ethnic cleansing and violence, and no EU membership is going to be able
to patch that up.
But according to Eyal, it is unrealistic to expect Belgrade to hand over the
men while its pride is freshly bruised over the loss of Kosovo.
Brammertz may just have to accept that Serbian cooperation is unlikely for the
time being. The prosecutor will have to take the long view, said Eyal.
Nobody is in a position to accept de facto the loss of Kosovo and say, And,
by the way, we are now also handing over war criminals to The Hague.
But waiting for the dust to settle over Kosovo carries its own risks.
Grubacic suggested Brussels could eventually drop its demands for Serbia to
turn over the suspects as a way of somehow compensating it for the loss of the
province.
I think that if Kosovo becomes independent and is recognised by European
countries and United States, in a way EU and the others will be ready to kind
of turn a blind eye on cooperation with ICTY because they dont want to punish
so much Serbs after all this time, he said.
Grubacic believes it should be a priority for Brammertz over the coming months
to retain the political backing of European governments, and keep the issue of
cooperation with the tribunal on the agenda.
Although, for the moment, everyone [in Europe] seems to be behind this issue,
it is possible to envisage a decision to turn a blind eye [to Serbias failure
to yield the fugitives] in return for a normalisation of relations between
Europe and Serbia after the storm over Kosovo is over, said Eyal.
In addition to engaging European heads of state, the new chief prosecutor might
also find that negotiating with Serbia behind the scenes rather than publicly
applying pressure could yield greater results.
The choice of Belgian lawyer Brammertz as Del Pontes successor has led many to
suggest that UN officials saw a need for a change of tack in the tribunals
negotiations with Serbia.
Brammertz, a former deputy prosecutor at the International Criminal Court who
also led an international investigation into murder of former Lebanese prime
minister Rafiq Hariri, is known for working quietly behind the scenes, rather
than in the full glare of the media spotlight.
During her eight-year tenure, observers questioned Del Pontes grasp of the
political situation in Serbia, and argued that her public attempts to pressure
the Balkans countries into submission at times appeared counterproductive.
In a comment piece on the website of Belgrade-based radio station B92 on
January 6, a former United States ambassador to Croatia and Serbia, William
Montgomery, argued that Del Ponte's bull in the china shop attitude towards
the fragile democratic governments in the region
actually made it harder,
rather than easier to transfer indictees to The Hague.
Eyal accepts that on certain occasions, the timing of Del Pontes statements
was off.
Im not saying that we have to accept the Serbian position; Im merely saying
that youre not advancing your case a great deal by coming in the middle of an
electoral campaign and threatening eternal isolation unless the Serbs comply
immediately [with the tribunal].
There is a view that a lower-key, more diplomatic approach could be more
effective.
There was somehow a feeling with Ms Del Ponte that any sort of confidential,
secret negotiations were somehow dirty and compromising the tribunal, said
Eyal. At the end of the day, we have to admit that there is a large political
element in any tribunal that relates to war crimes.
The analyst acknowledged that while private negotiations could lead to certain
concessions being agreed - such as safeguards, plea bargains or other terms -
in exchange for the delivery of the fugitives, they were vital in making
progress.
While there is a danger in negotiating behind the scenes, I see this is the
only way for handing these people over.
Caroline Tosh is an IWPR editor in London.
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