Failed Balkans summitry

Shan't!


Serbia ruins an attempt at western Balkan unity


Mar 21st 2010 | From The Economist online

BRDO castle, in the middle of Slovenia, has played host to a number of 
important events in recent Balkan history. In 1980, Marshal Tito, Yugoslavia’s 
leader, suffered a stroke there and died soon afterwards. In April 1991, the 
leaders of the six constituent Yugoslav republics met at the castle in a vain 
attempt to avert their doomed country’s descent into violence. This weekend 
their successors reconvened, along with the prime ministers of Kosovo and 
Albania, to show the world—or rather the European Union—how committed they are 
to good neighbourly relations. 

The happy occasion was to be blessed by Herman Van Rompuy, the new president of 
the European Council, and Miguel Ángel Moratinos, foreign minister of Spain, 
which holds the EU’s rotating presidency. But proceedings were torpedoed by a 
last-minute decision by Boris Tadic, Serbia’s president, to boycott the meeting 
because of the presence, on equal terms, of Kosovo. Brave faces all round could 
not hide the failure.

Tadic stays at home

The summit was the result of a warming of relations between Slovenia and 
Croatia. After spending much of the last year squabbling over a maritime 
border, the two countries agreed, in November, to put the case to arbitration. 
Today, says Danilo Turk, Slovenia’s president, “there is almost an explosion of 
happiness between Croatia and Slovenia.” What better way to celebrate this 
lovefest than for the two countries to invite the leaders of all the other 
former Yugoslav states, and Albania, to commit publicly to work towards their 
common future in the EU?

The sticking point, as so often, was Kosovo. Ever since the former Serbian 
province declared independence in February 2008, Serbia, which regards Kosovo 
as its historic heart, has been fighting to keep its independence from becoming 
diplomatic fact. Helped by powerful states like Russia and China, and, within 
the EU, Spain, Serbia has kept Kosovo out of the UN and many other 
international organisations. It has also brought the case of Kosovo’s 
declaration of independence to the International Court of Justice in The Hague; 
a ruling is expected later this year.

The two countries have nevertheless adopted a relatively grown-up attitude 
towards meeting together, give or take the odd tantrum. One successful format 
involves ensuring that delegates do not use national nameplates, allowing them 
to sit in the same room together. Balkan-watchers hoped that a similar 
pragmatism would prevail in Brdo.

The problem was the high profile of the summit. Brdo presented Mr Tadic with a 
dismal choice. Had he attended, Serbs at home would have seen images of him 
sitting around a small table with Hashim Thaci, Kosovo’s prime minister, with 
the implication that the pair were talking as equals. But staying away would 
have only enhanced Serbia's international image as a recalcitrant regional 
bully that refuses to accept the reality of Kosovo's independence. In the end 
Mr Tadic decided that domestic needs trumped statesmanship, and stayed at home. 
Mr Van Rompuy and Mr Moratinos then pulled out themselves, fatally undermining 
the meeting. 

By wrecking the Brdo summit, Mr Tadic won a battle, but he cannot win the war. 
Smarting from its humiliation, Slovenia’s government may choose to take revenge 
by slowing the EU’s integration process with Serbia. Later this year, a major 
EU-Balkans summit is planned in Sarajevo, and the EU is increasing pressure on 
the states of the region to improve their mutual relations. If Serbia stays 
away again, the consequences could be grave. Many powerful voices in the EU, 
including Germany’s ruling Christian Democrats, want to see a long pause in 
enlargement for “digestion” once the EU takes in Iceland and Croatia, possibly 
in 2012. They won't mind a bit if Mr Tadic insists on putting Kosovo before 
Europe. If that happens, Serbia, which long ago lost Kosovo, may lose the EU.


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