---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Thu, Dec 1, 2011 at 11:25 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Sudan's woes mount To: Group <[email protected]>
Article 1's reference to "an extremely violent power struggle that could degenerate into civil war" seems to neglect the fact that Sudan has already degenerated into civil war on three different fronts (see articles 4 and 5, for example), although it correctly points out that NCP may "see these as minor issues, not imminent threats to their survival." John BEGIN 1. As woes mount, Sudan’s leader acts to ensure rule By ARIEH O’SULLIVAN / THE MEDIA LINE Jerusalem Post 11/30/2011 15:47 Bashir makes deal with opposition but his situation remains precarious. With regimes crumbling all around him, Sudanese President Omar Bashir is engaged in constant political maneuvering to stay in power in his attempt to avoid following in the footsteps of the rulers of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and potentially Syria. He made a deal this week with Sudan's chief opposition party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), to join his government, and his army appears to have crushed rebel pockets across the country. The country, however, remains plagued by unresolved wars and spiraling inflation. It is also going through a financial crisis brought on by the secession of South Sudan in July, which took away approximately 75% of the country’s oil wealth. Government oil export revenues dropped from $6.2 billion in 2010 to just $1.5 billion this year. Some analysts are warning that these issues could lead to a bloody push to bring down the regime. “If and when the storm breaks here, there is good reason to fear that Sudan will witness an extremely violent power struggle that could degenerate into civil war and possibly the disintegration of north Sudan,” observed David Ottaway, a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center. Writing for Foreign Policy, Ottaway said that Bashir’s opponents were “gearing up to push for an end to his regime” either through negotiations or through arms. Bashir, 66, came to power with the aid of Islamists back in 1989, but Sudan has a history of overthrowing military dictators. In 1964, in a move similar to the Egyptian revolt centered in Tahrir Square, tens of thousands of workers and students took over the streets of Khartoum until Gen. Ibrahim Abboud agreed to step down. It was the first ever civilian uprising against a dictator in the Arab world. Earlier this year, the International Crisis Group (ICG) issued a scathing report on Sudan, accusing the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of exacerbating ethnic and regional divisions in the country that could lead to a more fragmentation of Sudan. The report warned that Khartoum had ignored the grievances of the country’s marginal areas, like Darfur, and that if it didn’t move to have a more inclusive government then Sudan risked more violence and disintegration. “Security hardliners see these as minor issues, not imminent threats to their survival, and remain committed to a military solution for chronic instability,” the report said. Bashir, who has an outstanding ICC arrest warrant against him for war crimes and crimes against humanity, called Sunday on his armed forces to complete its mission against rebel pockets across the country, particularly in Darfur, South Kordofan and the Blue Nile. Speaking before the NCP general conference, Bashir said that rebellions in these areas were driven by mercenaries and foreign agents who put the country in crisis. The Sudanese leader said that the entire world is undergoing changes and that people everywhere and not just in Sudan are looking for freedom. “We want to free the will of the people from subordination and oppression....humanity needs Mohammad’s guidance," Bashir was said. The ICG report also noted that Bashir, concerned about a possible coup, fragmented the Sudanese security services and had come to rely increasingly on personal loyalty and tribal allegiances to remain in power. With soaring food prices and spiraling inflation, pro-democracy groups like Girifna, or “Fed Up,” have tried to organize peaceful protests. But Bashir's regime has learned the importance of securing important civilian areas and preventing mass protests from past Arab revolutions “The regime is very, very good at keeping control of the central areas. They are the people who themselves grew up with the experience of Sudan’s two earlier revolutions in 1964 and 1985 and they know the importance of keeping control of Khartoum and the central areas and they have shown themselves as pretty good at doing that.” “While there have been a number of demonstrations and goings on over the past year, a lot of Internet chatter, there has been nothing of the kind of really impressive scale (like in Egypt and Syria),” he added. Regarding whether or not he believed that the Bashir regime was doomed to fall, Justin Willis, an East African expert at Britain’s Durham University, said, “he could be overthrown tomorrow, but that doesn’t look at all likely to me.” Williams, in an interview with The Media Line, added that “at the moment he doesn’t seem very likely to fall. He is very strong. It is hard to see much in the way of substantial political action at the center of Sudan of the kind that could bring him down.” http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=247598 END1 2. Sudan’s bid to join EAC rejected as South Sudan’s deferred November 30, 2011 (NAIROBI) – Sudan’s request to be admitted to the East Africa Community (EAC) has been officially rejected, in a major diplomatic blow to Khartoum’s ambitions of joining the regional bloc. Meanwhile, Sudan’s president al-Bashir has reacted by hinting at a conspiracy to turn his country into a pariah state. Last June, Sudan requested to join the EAC which is a regional intergovernmental organization comprised of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi with its headquarters in Arusha, Tanzania. The rejection of Sudan’s application was contained in a communiqué issued on Wednesday at the conclusion of the EAC’s head-of-states summit held in Bujumbura, Burundi. The ill fate of Sudan’s application to join EAC came as no surprise in view of the objections raised earlier in the week during the EAC’s council of ministers by officials from two member states, Tanzania and Uganda, over Khartoum’s request. A Ugandan official quoted by the Kampala-based Daily Monitor newspaper this week revealed that his country along with Tanzania had objected to Khartoum’s lack of democracy and treatment of women. “We rejected their application after looking at several issues like their democracy, the way they treat women and their religious politics and we feel they don’t qualify at all,” Eriya Kategaya, Uganda’s minister for East African Affairs said. Article 3 (3) of the EAC charter stipulates that membership is contingent upon adherence to universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice. Furthermore, having shared borders is a requirement for the EAC membership which Sudan does not meet. The fact that Uganda had objected to Sudan’s request is also of little surprise given long-strained relations between Khartoum and Kampala. Sudan accuses Kampala of providing a sanctuary to rebel group from Darfur region while Uganda appears to be distrustful of Khartoum’s claims that it has ceased support for the Lord Resistance Army (LRA). In the meantime, Sudan’s president Omer al-Bashir on Wednesday accused unnamed “foreign quarters” of seeking isolate Sudan from its African milieu. Addressing the 34th session of the Union of African Parliaments held in Khartoum, Bashir said that Sudan had successfully defied attempts to bring it down through economic sanctions. “Now there are attempts by some foreign quarters to impose a state of political isolation on Sudan and keep it away from its African milieu,” he said. South Sudan’s request to join EAC deferred In a related context, the EAC’s head-of-states summit deferred application of the newly-independent state of South Sudan to join the regional bloc for further scrutiny. According to the summit’s final communiqué, South Sudan’s application is to be deferred to the EAC’s council of ministers to decide whether it undergo further scrutiny to decide whether it met the benchmarks. South Sudan seceded from Sudan in July this year after voting in a referendum granted under the 2005 peace deal which ended more than two decades of civil wars between the north and the south. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-s-bid-to-join-EAC-rejected,40873 END2 3. Sudan able to foil attempt to politically isolate it from Africa: president (Xinhua) People's Daily Online 14:34, December 01, 2011 KHARTOUM, Nov. 30 (Xinhua) -- Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on Wednesday accused some international trends of attempting to politically isolate Sudan from its African surrounding. "Sudan has been subject to unjustified pressures because of its independent options and its rejection of foreign interventions and politicization of justice," said al-Bashir when addressing the 34th conference of African Parliamentary Union (APU) in Khartoum. "An economic siege has been imposed on Sudan and presently attempts are ongoing by external trends to politically isolate Sudan from its African surrounding," he added. He reiterated Sudan's ability to face foreign plots, saying that "due to Sudan's adherence to its stances and with the support of the peace loving peoples in Africa we have managed to break the siege and abort the isolation plot." Al-Bashir called on the African countries to prevent foreign intervention in the African affair, saying that "the (African) countries must live up to their responsibility in resolving the African conflicts and block the way before foreign interventions which further complicate our issues." The 34th APU conference is discussing two main issues relating to the role of parliamentary institutions in enhancing solidarity among the African countries to boost security and stability and involvement of the people, particularly the youth, to reduce poverty, end exclusion and enhance justice. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/7662628.html END3 4. "How War Reignited In Sudan While No One Was Looking" from The New Republic (on-line), November 29, 2011 by Eric Reeves Violence has escalated in recent weeks in many places in both (north) Sudan and the newly independent Republic of South Sudan. This is especially true in Blue Nile and South Kordofan---border states that ended up in the North, but are home to large populations that fought with the southern Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and identify with southerners---militarily, politically, and culturally. Many Sudan observers are being asked if renewed war can be avoided in this tortured country. Responses vary, but the simplest answer is that it can't, because it has already begun. The bellicose rhetoric from the North's leaders in Khartoum is more intense now than at any time since the separation of the North and the South on July 9. And it’s not just rhetoric. On November 3, northern forces seized the city of Kurmuk in Blue Nile, which had been the bastion of those forces of the SPLA in the North that refused to disarm---the SPLA North (or SPLA-N), as they are known. (The SPLA-N's reluctance to disarm within territories in the North is understandable: Given the ruthlessly vengeful and militarily unconstrained regime in Khartoum, unilateral disarming would be tantamount to suicide for people living in the North but identifying with the South.) Just after the seizure, Sudanese President and Field Marshal Omar al-Bashir declared that the northern regime was ready for war with the South and that it had lost all patience with "provocation" from Juba---the southern capital. Withdrawal by SPLA-N from Kurmuk prevented a civilian massacre, but the attack on the city sent tens of thousands of civilians fleeing into Ethiopia---adding to the hundreds of thousands of refugees displaced by military activities that began this summer, when the northern regime began an assault on the disputed border region of Abyei. Furthermore, the strategic military consequences of the North's entry into Kurmuk are ominous. The Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP) has recently reported that the North's forces immediately began to expand the airfield outside Kurmuk, which is only about 40 miles from the border with Upper Nile State in the South. Assaults by the North on southern territories soon accelerated. On November 8, in the remote Mabaan region of Upper Nile State, the Khartoum's bombers killed and wounded more than a dozen people according to humanitarian sources on the ground. On November 10, the Khartoum bombed Yida refugee camp in the southern Unity State, home to some 23,000 civilians. One bomb, which did not detonate, landed next to a school where 200 children were present. The attack was confirmed by journalists from Reuters and the BBC, a humanitarian organization on the ground in Yida, and UN investigators, but the chief army spokesman for the North and, incredibly, Khartoum's ambassador to the UN, denied that it took place. In addition to these direct attacks, Khartoum's proxy war is accelerating in the South. In the past few months, renegade rebel forces---almost certainly funded and organized by the North---have been destabilizing the South by repeatedly attacking civilian targets, especially in Unity State and Jonglei. Analysis of evidence by the Small Arms Survey (Geneva) makes clear that these rebel forces have been heavily armed with weapons of Chinese manufacture, which could only have come from Khartoum. (A November 16 statement issued by Chinese and Sudanese officials asserted an increasing and deepening military cooperation between Khartoum and Beijing.) These so-called "rebel groups" are nothing more than brutal mercenaries, deployed to create leverage if negotiations ever begin---or tie up southern military forces if war expands. The consequences of the renewed violence of the past months have been myriad---compounding problems that began to worsen this summer. Several international aid organizations---including Oxfam---have been forced to withdraw from the border-state region, particularly Blue Nile and South Kordofan, where Khartoum has imposed a total embargo on humanitarian assistance. Since May, perhaps as many as a half-million people have been displaced by the violence; the number of refugees has only increased with the recent violence. These people are on the move as the critical November harvest should be underway. Instead of consuming cultivated crops, people are relying on reserve food stocks. (Although, there isn’t much to harvest; the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization expects the harvests to "fail.") Productive negotiations between the North and the South seem increasingly unlikely: Just before a key meeting was to begin in Addis Ababa last week under African Union auspices, the North balked and proposed deliberately preposterous and unacceptable terms for oil revenue sharing. (The South possesses most of the region’s oil reserves.) This is consistent with past behavior. A June 28 agreement to resolve the armed hostilities that took place over the summer in South Kordofan and Blue Nile was renounced by President al-Bashir three days later. A month later, the Khartoum invaded Blue Nile. And the world's response to such behavior? There seems a perverse inability (or cynical unwillingness) to connect these conspicuous dots. The U.S. special envoy, Princeton Lyman, declares that we have no cards to play. All we can do is "promote negotiations," Lyman declared in an interview with Darfur's Radio Dabanga. For its part, the U.N. indulges in a predictable moral equivalence, urging both sides to exercise restraint. This facile exhortation does not acknowledge the restraint the South has already shown in the face of a year’s worth of cross-border bombing attacks. The U.S. is not, however, without leverage. And now is the time to respond: 1) Shut down all talk of debt relief for Khartoum: Given the highly distressed state of the northern economy, Khartoum is desperate for debt relief. Germany and France have both made gestures toward this. The U.S. should make it clear it will use all its political power to prevent debt relief for the North until it makes a just peace with the parties in Sudan and grants full humanitarian access to all populations affected by conflict. 2) Keep Sudan on the State Department list of terrorism-sponsoring nations: The U.S. should keep Sudan on this list until all aerial bombardments in Blue Nile, South Kordofan, and Darfur stop. (Removal from the list requires the State Department to certify that no acts of terrorism have been committed or supported by a regime on the list for the six prior months). 3) Make U.S. satellite reconnaissance showing Khartoum's military actions against civilians public: Using its massive satellite resources, the U.S. should publicize the scale and nature of Khartoum’s military actions. Unlike the SSP, the U.S. intelligence community has no limit on the resolution (pixels per square centimeter) of its images or weather constraints on its surveillance capabilities. So far, however, the Obama administration has been inert in responding to or augmenting the critical findings of SSP. 4) Accelerate defensive arms deliveries to South Sudan, particularly anti-aircraft weaponry, as well as surveillance and communications equipment. 5) Use military force to deter the bombing of civilians: The U.S. should declare that for every military air attack on civilians or humanitarians, it will destroy (by cruise missile) an aircraft at the major northern air base in el-Obeid. What can't be doubted is that if the U.S. and its allies do not quickly change the calculus guiding decisions being made in Khartoum---right now---expansion of war is inevitable. [Eric Reeves is a professor at Smith College and has published extensively on Sudan, nationally and internationally, for more than a decade. He is author of A Long Day's Dying: Critical Moments in the Darfur Genocide.] http://www.tnr.com/article/world/97921/south-sudan-khartoum-obama END4 5. Field Dispatch: A View from Blue Nile Enough Project - Nenad Marinkovic Nov 29, 2011 Blue Nile, Sudan - Enough has recently documented that Sudanese military forces in Blue Nile state have engaged in the killing and raping of civilians, resulting in tens of thousands of refugees and displaced persons fleeing for safety in neighboring Ethiopia and South Sudan, and within Blue Nile. The civilian toll from an indiscriminate aerial bombardment campaign is rising. In addition to these devastating effects on civilians, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, in September, used the violence in Blue Nile as a pretext to declare a state of emergency in the state and remove its democratically elected governor, Malik Agar, forcing him into hiding. On a trip to a location near Kurmuk in Blue Nile close to the Ethiopian border, Enough Project staff spoke to Agar about the current situation and his aspirations for Sudan’s future. ______________________________________ On the evening of September 1, 2011, the Sudan Armed Forces, or SAF, attacked Damazin, the capital of Blue Nile state. One of the first targets of this operation was the residence of Malik Agar, the elected governor of the state and the chairman of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, or SPLM-N. As a result, Agar was ousted from his governorship and the Sudan government appointed a military administration in his place. He fled Damazin with forces of the SPLM-N’s military wing, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North, or SPLA-N, to an area close to the town of Kurmuk, near the Ethiopian border. The fighting in Blue Nile has, from the start, followed the pattern of previous clashes in South Kordofan, using frequent aerial bombardments that have repeatedly fallen on the civilian population. In addition, the government of Sudan has imposed an aid blockade, and continues to use the worsening humanitarian crisis as a weapon of war. Agar told the Enough Project that the bombing is being employed to “kill the willing of the SPLA-N soldiers”[i] by separating them from families. The Fall of Kurmuk On November 3, the SAF dislodged SPLA-N forces from Kurmuk and took the town. Following the fall of Kurmuk, the SAF issued a statement in which the operation was described as “a step toward elimination of SPLA remnants in the North”. In his first public statement after the fall of Kurmuk, Malik Agar told the Enough Project: “Politically, the problem of Blue Nile is [an] integral part of the Sudanese holistic problem of mismanagement of the diversity and governance, no meaningful share of wealth and powers. All these problems determine the future of Blue Nile, [and] by nature are central and can be only solve[d] holistically, the particulars could be detailed out after the constitutional guarantees which shall be based on clear distinction of the issues. Blue Nile does not stand by itself in isolation from the whole. In light of this Kurmuk is a battle that could have as well taken place elsewhere, in Medani or Sinnar for example, The fight happened to be there because of circumstances, and losing battles is quite natural in wars, however the war is not yet lost, though politically [Sudanese President] Bashir is making lot of noise about. Bashir pronounced SPLM[-N] dead but I can tell you, this is not the end of the movement, and SPLM[-N] is still very much alive and remarkably noisy. The town of Kurmuk has been captured by SAF two times during the previous war and SPLA[-N] recaptured it three times. SPLA[-N] is 20 kilometers from Damazin on the western front of Blue Nile and Bashir does not talk about it.” The Sudan Revolutionary Front On November 11, the SPLM-N and the Darfur-based Justice and Equality Movement, or JEM, as well as two factions of the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army, or SLM/A, signed the Kauda declaration establishing the Sudan Revolutionary Front, or SRF. A communiqué published in the local media following the signing of the declaration affirms the SRF’s resolve “to overthrow the National Congress Party (NCP) regime [in Khartoum] using all available means, above all, the convergence of civil political action and armed struggle”[ii]. Agar told the Enough Project that the overthrow of the government has never been excluded as one of the options for resolving “a political crisis in Sudan.” The Enough Project has published a number of reports[iii] that urge that a nation-wide approach to conflict resolution be undertaken in Sudan. Right now, the country is engulfed in four conflicts – in Abyei, Blue Nile, Darfur, and South Kordofan – that require a comprehensive peace deal for long-term stability. A ‘New Sudan’ Vision Revisited The independence of South Sudan has inadvertently enabled the regime of Omar al-Bashir in Khartoum to enforce its will on territories that remained part of Sudan, including by imposing sharia law and extending what many in the three states now at war perceive as Arab domination. President al-Bashir has confirmed his intention to govern the country based on sharia law in a number of public remarks[iv]. In contrast to President al-Bashir’s desire to create an Islamic state, Agar told the Enough Project that his vision is of a “secular Sudan” where people would be treated equally, regardless of their differences in ethnic, religious and social background. In his hideout near Kurmuk, he said “I was born African, God created me that way. I am Muslim but I will never be an Arab”. Agar asserts that Sudan will eventually be united by the very same diversity that now divides it. He espoused a vision of a country united in ethnic and religious diversity and with equal rights for its entire population. In the spirit of the late John Garang’s unionist vision, Yasir Arman, SPLM-N Secretary-General, told the Enough Project that once reformed, Sudan will seek to have a special relationship with South Sudan in a form of a “Sudanese Union” modelled after the European Union with “freedom of labour, trade and movement of people” as the core values. Conclusion In the long run, only a comprehensive peace process, fully inclusive of all parties can divert Sudan from the dangerous path on which it has embarked. In the near term, the international community must use all mechanisms available to pressure Khartoum for an immediate cessation of hostilities and to initiate negotiations under international mediation. International actors with leverage over the government of Sudan must understand that only a fully internationally backed peace agreement will bring expected results. To that end, the international community should: •Ensure the protection of civilians in Sudan. The Sudan government must be pressured to lift the humanitarian blockade and allow international relief agencies access to the conflict areas. If the Khartoum regime persists in using the worsening humanitarian crisis as a weapon of war, international donors must consider a cross-border relief operation as a matter of urgency. •Use diplomatic and economic leverage to initiate a peace conference with international mediation, where all parties would engage in peace talks aimed at a comprehensive peace deal that would provide for cessation of hostilities, free and fair elections and constitutional review. •Support transformation towards democratic change. The international community should support the development of Sudanese civil society. [i] Author of this report met with Malik Agar in October, 2011 [ii] “Implausible Denials,” Africa Confidential Volume 52, No. 13. November 18, 2011. Accessed at: http://www.africa-confidential.com/index.aspx?pageid=7&articleid=4240 [iii] For example, John Prendergast, A New U.S Policy For Two Sudans, Enough Project, August 2011, available at http://www.enoughproject.org/files/new_policy_two_sudans. [iv] “Sharia Law to be tightened if Sudan Splits- President.” BBC, December 19, 2010. Accessed at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12033185 END5 6. 7,000 IDPs Stranded In Sudan’s Way Stations 7,000 South Sudanese Internally Displaced Persons, (IDPs) are stranded and are in deplorable conditions in way stations and camps in Khartoum a report presented last Monday to the South Sudan National Assembly says. JUBA, 30 November 2011 [Gurtong] - 7,000 South Sudanese Internally Displaced Persons, (IDPs) are stranded and are in deplorable conditions in way stations and camps in Khartoum a report presented last Monday to the South Sudan National Assembly says. The Parliamentary Committee of Gender, Social Welfare, Religious Affairs and Youth and Sports travelled to assess the situation of the IDPs in the way stations of Kosti in Khartoum and camps in Renk, Unity State. In the Committee report presented by Hon. Debora Ajok in the August House, it presented challenges that culminated into a number of resolutions raised by MPs. The report indicated that, IDPs lack necessary basic services such as health, food and shelter. Few Non Governmental Organizations, (NGOs) are being involved in addressing the challenges hence inadequate service provision. “The transit camp opened in Kosti was for a capacity of 2,500 IDPs only. However, at the moment the number has tremendously increased to 7, 000,” Debora explained in the report. Timely payment of transporting companies by the responsible institutions of the Government of South Sudan has affected the quick transportation of the IDPs from the transit camps, she added. The report explained that, Logistic Sudan Limited demands unpaid money of 9,000,000 South Sudan Pound from the government. IDPs Luggage in transit camps in Kosti and Hi Jusif are subjected to taxation and IDPS also experience harassment by security agents during night hours. The report further indicates that, a number of 75 IDPs in the transit camps have been imprisoned after arrest by security agents... END6 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. 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