---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Wed, Feb 8, 2012 at 7:06 PM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Khartoum’s “Plan B” against South Sudan To: Group <[email protected]>
1. Khartoum’s “Plan B” against South Sudan revealed February 6, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – Sudan’s foreign ministry has revealed details of what it called ’Plan B’ to confront South Sudan, saying it entails economic pressure and support to southern rebel groups. The term ’Plan B’ was used on Friday by the Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Karti to warn of alternative actions Khartoum could pursue in the face of what he described as attempts by Juba to overthrow the Sudanese government through economic pressure and support to Sudanese rebels. Karti, who was speaking in an interview with Sudan national radio, gave a glimpse of what ’Plan B’ would look like, saying it involves Khartoum playing ’security cards’ to destabilise the south. The already tense relationship between Sudan and South Sudan has currently reached its nadir since the south declared independence in July last year as a result of a vote granted under the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended more than two decades of civil war between the two sides. A bitter dispute over the transit fees land locked South Sudan should pay to export its oil through Sudanese territories to the Red Sea port of Port Sudan has escalated dramatically in recent weeks. As talks to resolve the issue hit a snag, Khartoum moved to sequester southern oil, prompting Juba to accuse it of stealing and suspend oil production all together. The recently separated countries also traded accusations of supporting each others rebel groups. Khartoum says Juba is supporting rebel fighters of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement North (SPLMN) in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, along the contested borders with the South, whereas Juba routinely blames Khartoum for alleged support of southern rebel groups and proliferation of arms in southern territories. Al-Obaid Marawih, the official spokesman of Sudan’s foreign ministry, on Sunday shed more light on the nature of his boss’s threats. He said in press statements that Sudan would not hesitate to exercise “economic pressure” on the government of South Sudan and extend support to southern rebels if Juba continues to support Sudanese rebels. Marawih further revealed that Khartoum would launch a parallel diplomatic offensive, adding that Sudanese delegates would tour neighbouring states to brief them on efforts exerted by Khartoum to establish good economic and diplomatic relations with Juba. The spokesman said that Khartoum did everything in its power for the sake of good relations with the south but received nothing in return but hostility. Therefore, he added, South Sudan is now warned of Khartoum’s intention to use “Plan B” in return. However, he later said that “Plan B” is not something Khartoum intends to execute tomorrow or the day after, adding that this option could be used if Khartoum completely fails to establish good relations with the south and stop Juba from harming it. Sudan’s President Omer Al-Bashir has raised concerns of renewed conflict between the two countries when he suggested during an interview on Friday that the current climate is closer to war than to peace. Meanwhile in Khartoum, the opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP) led by Hassan Al-Turabi has warned the government against beating the drums of war with the south. Speaking to Sudan Tribune following a party meeting on Monday to discuss the current developments, the PCP’s political secretary Kamal Umar accused the Sudanese government of deliberately fuelling tension with the South by issuing hostile statements without accepting any responsibility for separating the South and starting conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Umar said that his party believes that resolving the current dispute lies in Khartoum’s acceptance to export southern oil without charge in order to help southern citizens as well as amending the Sudanese citizenship law and give Sudanese citizenship to whoever is interested in it. The opposition official considered the fact that the Khartoum government is calling for war as “a dangerous precedent". He went on to accuse Al-Bashir’s government of seeking to drag the country to an abyss of destruction. Umar concluded by calling on the southern government to observe patience and wisdom, saying that they should understand that the behaviour of the government does not represent Sudanese people. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/Khartoum-s-Plan-B-against-South,41527 END1 2. Sudan president warns of war with South Sudan Jared Ferrie The National Feb 5, 2012 JUBA // Sudan's president is warning of war after efforts failed to reach an oil-sharing agreement between Khartoum and South Sudan. President Omar Al Bashir told Blue Nile TV on Friday that war "is a possibility" because of escalating tensions with Juba over the negotiations. South Sudan broke away from the north last July, taking about three-quarters of what had been Sudan's 500,000-barrel-a-day oil industry with it. It shut down all oil production late last month after it accused Sudan of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of oil. "If there will be war after the loss of oil it will be a war of attrition. But it will be a war of attrition hitting them before us," Mr Al Bashir said, apparently referring to the effects the loss of oil revenue would have on both countries. As South Sudan depends on oil sales for 98 per cent of its revenue, Valerie Amos, the UN's humanitarian chief said a prolonged oil shutdown could force government services to dry up. "Humanitarian needs will inevitably increase and the combined efforts of donors will not be sufficient," Ms Amos told reporters during a visit to Juba on Thursday. "The scope of this crisis cannot be ignored." The sharing of oil revenue has been a key issue in negotiations since the south declared independence. The latest round of talks in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, broke down when the south refused to accept a proposal by the African Union High Implementation Panel (AUHIP) that is acting as a mediator. In a speech Thursday in Juba, South Sudan's president, Salva Kiir, said the proposal would have required land-locked South Sudan to funnel oil through pipelines running across Sudan to the Red Sea, restricting its ability to construct planned alternative pipelines. "This is an attempt to ensure that we do not build our own pipelines," he told reporters. "The agreement concentrates on restricting the export of oil through Sudan." In the run-up to negotiations that began January 17, Khartoum began diverting southern oil to its refinery through a "tie-in" pipeline it had constructed. Khartoum also sent armed security forces to oversee the loading of southern oil onto ships it controlled. Despite such actions - which were protested by oil companies in letters released by South Sudan - Juba accused the AUHIP of siding with Khartoum, according to a confidential government document provided to The National. "The conclusion is that this new proposal inexplicably suggests AUHIPs' abandonment of its own commitment, to achieve mutual viability of the two states," wrote Pagun Amum, the south's chief negotiator, in a January 25 letter addressed to Pierra Buyoya, a member of the panel. Mr Amum noted that his government had supported the previous AUHIP proposal, which would have required the south to transfer US$2.6 billion (Dh9.5bn) to Khartoum, over a four-year period, to ease the "fiscal gap" left when the south seceded. The government in Khartoum rejected that proposal and continued to confiscate southern oil, claiming it was taking what it was owed in unpaid transit fees. "Shockingly and to our astonishment and dismay" the new proposal requested South Sudan to increase the transfer to $6.5bn, wrote Mr Amum. For its part, Khartoum blamed Juba for the failure of the talks. "The Government of Sudan … called on the southern government to review its hostile leaning towards Sudan," according to a statement by Khartoum's delegation, posted on the state-linked Sudanese Media Centre. When South Sudan seceded, a common analysis held that their mutual dependence on oil - produced mainly in the south, but using northern pipelines, processing and export facilities - would force the parties to resolve outstanding issues. Oil revenue would also be used to build a newborn nation, which is one of the world's poorest. But the shutdown - if it continues - throws such theories into doubt. "The shutdown in oil production by South Sudan would threaten the loss of nearly all of South Sudan's public revenue and cause further violence in the border areas with Sudan, suggesting that this is unsustainable for any meaningful period of time," according to a January 27 report by Standard Chartered. But southern officials insist that the oil will not begin to flow again until a deal is reached that resolves all outstanding issues. A prolonged shutdown and loss of oil revenues could also cause security issues within both countries, according to a January 27 report by Saferworld, a UK-based organisation promoting security. The report noted that South Sudan spends more than a third of its budget on security. "If the military payroll is disrupted, troops will get restive - a problem which has led to serious violence in the past," the report said. Sudan could face similar problems, the organisation warned, noting that oil accounted for 36 per cent of that government's revenues before the south's secession. "The state's financial patronage also upholds what stability there is in the North, so less oil money will spell trouble - the country already faces active rebellions in several states," the report said. Mr Amum has said South Sudan would "turn east" to neighbours Kenya and Ethiopia to export its oil. South Sudan already signed a memorandum of understanding with Kenya to build a pipeline from its oilfields to Kenya's northern coast. South Sudan says it has also approached Ethiopia about a possible pipeline going to Djibouti's port. http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/sudan-president-warns-of-war-with-south-sudan END2 3. Pressgangs "still operating in Khartoum" JUBA-KHARTOUM, 8 February 2012 (IRIN) - Rebel groups fighting South Sudan's government have bolstered their ranks through the forced recruitment of southerners living in Khartoum, according to a senior official in Juba, a self-styled rebel leader, and a man who escaped a pressgang in Sudan's capital. Although the alleged forced recruitment appears to have died down since a reported spate of abductions in late December, South Sudan's information minister and government spokesman Barnaba Marial Benjamin said it was still taking place sporadically. It happens "from time to time, it is random; they don't have specific dates when they carry it out. Even if it goes down [in frequency], doesn't happen for two or three days, you hear again a week later the same process is being repeated over and over again," he told IRIN. Benjamin accused "national security authorities in the Republic of Sudan [of] encouraging the militia groups that are in Khartoum to forcefully recruit some of the [southern] students from the University of Khartoum" and send them to training camps "to be part of the militia groups" fighting the Juba government. Although Sudan has denied any involvement, Benjamin said a government delegation travelled from Juba to Khartoum in January to call "for this type of activity to stop. But it seems that nothing is stopping... and I think that this is actually spoiling the principle of building relations between the two states." In late December, Simon*, a 49-year-old Southerner living in Khartoum, told IRIN about his own narrow escape from recruitment. "There were seven of us in the middle of a big market in Khartoum at around 2pm. I saw seven people coming to us. Two of them had pistols under their jackets. 'Come with us,' they told us. We were taken in a pick-up truck to an empty house in west Omdurman. "There were five others prisoners. They chained our feet and left us only an empty jerry-can to use as a toilet. They told us they wanted to bring us to the South to fight against the SPLA," he said, referring to the Sudan People's Liberation Army, the regular army of South Sudan. Simon says he owes his freedom to his employers, who paid the abductors the equivalent of about US$1,500 for his release. It is unclear how many such abductions have taken place. One aid worker in Khartoum said in late December, "We have heard from embassies, press reports, local organizations and NGOs that about 200-300 South Sudanese people have been kidnapped in Khartoum in the last couple of months. There is no official figure, only unofficial reports." A man reliably introduced to IRIN as a southern rebel commander, William Goikang, said he helped to plan the abductions. "Now we are taking students. Some follow us without quarrel and for others we have to use force... We only take men between 20 and 30," he told IRIN in late 2011. Goikang said the conscripts were taken to one of six training centres in South Sudan's Unity and Jonglei states, but he denied any ransoms were demanded or that the Khartoum government had any role in the recruitments. Sudanese Information Ministry spokesman Rabbie Abdellati Ebait told IRIN his government was "against all crimes such as abductions. If cases arise, the police are there to track down and catch the criminals. It has nothing to do with political matters." *Not his real name END3 4. Khartoum warns of reaction to any aggression by South Sudan February 7, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – The Sudanese government has vowed to respond in kind if South Sudan initiates any hostile action, in the latest escalation of rhetoric between the two countries as they prepare to embark on a fresh round of talks. Sudan and South Sudan appear to be on the brink of renewed conflict as their already-tense relations reached its nadir in recent weeks due to a bitter dispute over oil. "The climate now is closer to a climate of war than one of peace," Sudan’s president Omer Bashir said in an interview this week after his government’s decision to confiscate southern oil pumped through Sudan’s territories prompted the government in Juba to halt oil production all together. South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir responded on Monday by launching a barrage of criticism against Al-Bashir, saying that Juba is ready for war if Khartoum attempts to attack. Kiir also accused Khartoum of amassing its troops along the contested borders with his country in preparation for an invasion. Reacting to Kiir’s tough statements, the official spokesman of Sudan’s foreign ministry, Al-Obaid Marawih, on Tuesday said that Khartoum was closely studying the implications of Kiir’s speech. “If we become certain beyond any doubt that the South is preparing to fight Sudan, our duty requires us to confront any hostile action,” he told reporters in Khartoum. However, he emphasized Sudan’s commitment to good neighborly relations with the south, pointing out that Khartoum is still keen to reach fair settlement to the issues of contention between the two countries during their next round of negotiations scheduled to take place in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on 10 February. Previous round of talks held in Addis Ababa under the meditation of the African Union High Level Panel (AUHIP) failed to break the dispute as the gap remained wide between the oil transit fees demanded by Khartoum, $32 per barrel, and the 74 cent South Sudan says it is prepared to pay. Meanwhile, the special envoy of the UN Secretary-General to Sudan Haile Menkerios held talks on Tuesday with the Sudanese minister of foreign affairs Ali Karti in Khartoum. Marawih told reporters that the meeting discussed arrangements for the next round of talks. The spokesman further revealed that his boss Karti informed the UN envoy that Khartoum would not hesitate to adopt a decisive position against Juba if the latter acts in defiance of good relations. There is little optimism that the two sides will manage to resolve the oil dispute during the upcoming round of negotiations. Direct talks between Al-Bashir and Kiir on the margins of the IGAD summit in Addis Ababa in late January collapsed despite efforts by regional leaders to bring the pair to sign an AUHIP proposal to end the oil crisis. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/Khartoum-warns-of-reaction-to-any,41535 END4 5. Sudanese president does not exclude possibility of war with Juba February 3, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – The Sudanese president Omer Hassan al-Bashir highlighted the unprecedented level of tension with the newly established state of South Sudan by saying that war is now a possibility. "The climate now is closer to a climate of war than one of peace," Bashir said in a two-hour interview on Blue Nile TV. Bashir acknowledged that such a war would be one of attrition and pose a drain on Sudan’s resources but will have a bigger impact on South Sudan. “We will not resort to the choice of war unless it is forced on us and we will not initiate the option of war because war is attrition for us and them [...] it will be a war of attrition hitting them before us” he said. The remarks come as military sources revealed last week to Sudan Tribune that 700 officers within the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) warned Bashir and his defense minister Abdel-Rahim Mohamed Hussein against rushing to war with South Sudan citing challenges facing the army. In South Kordofan and Blue Nile States, along the contested border with South Sudan, the regime has for several months been at war with ethnic minority insurgents who fought alongside the former rebels now ruling in Juba. The dispute between the two countries currently centers on sharing the fruits of oil produced in the landlocked South Sudan but can only be exported through the pipelines and refineries running in the territories of Sudan. Sudan decided late last year to start confiscating part of the oil pumped by South Sudan as payment in kind to satisfy financial arrears. This prompted Juba to retaliate by shutting down oil production. All negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement on how much fee should the south pay per barrel of oil have collapsed. The most recent attempt was made by Ethiopian president Meles Zenawi last week along with other African leaders in Addis Ababa. Bashir today recounted mediation efforts that Zenawi has undertaken to bridge differences between him and South Sudan president Salva Kiir. He claimed that the latter initially informed Zenawi that he will sign a framework agreement, put together by the African Union (AU) mediation team, before backpedaling later. According to Bashir, Kiir presented “incapacitating” demands in Addis Ababa including conceding ownership of Abyei and five other border regions before he can sign the accord. Because of this the Sudanese president asserted that South Sudan “have not signed and will not sign”. He further said that officials in Juba are insensitive to the needs of their own people saying that South Sudan is suffering from famine. Bashir also accused South Sudan officials of stashing part of the oil money into their own personal bank accounts. Bashir, who came to power in a bloodless coup in 1989, said that South Sudan officials are hanging their bets on shutting the oil to strangle his regime economically and cause its downfall. “Their calculations was that if Sudan loses oil for two months then that will be sufficient for toppling the government,” he said. But the Sudanese president said that while 2012 will be a difficult year for the economy but that growing gold exports, cotton and sugar should compensate for the loss of the south’s oil since last July’s country’s breakup. He also revealed that “friendly” countries are also providing help. The Sudanese pound recently sank on the black market to five pounds to the dollar, but Bashir said the government wants that raised to three pounds. ‘NO GUARDIANSHIP’ Asked about memos submitted by large number yet unknown members of the National Congress Party (NCP) calling for reforms, Bashir called it “valueless”. The memos that have emerged in December called for an overhaul of state policies including fighting corruption, establishment of a citizenship-based state and banning the combination of party positions with government ones. A visibly tense Bashir said that the number of those behind the memos is negligible compared to the total NCP membership which he said exceeds 5 million. He accused some unnamed circles within the NCP of seeking to act as guardians of the party. “There is no guardianship on the NCP from the memo signers or those who claim that they are the people who can pull or untie strings [in the party]” Bashir said. He said that some within the NCP think that if they are not consulted in decisions then they would come out to say that the party is not democratic. Bashir also warned that those who are proved to be affiliated with the reform memos can be held accountable. The NCP chief said that decision making occurs through the general convention which elects its top officials and the party bodies. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudanese-president-does-not,41502 END5 6. Bashir tells his cabinet to prepare for the “worst” with South Sudan February 5, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – The Sudanese president Omer Hassan al-Bashir told members of his cabinet this week that they should expect the “worst” in the ongoing dispute with South Sudan, according to a newspaper report. The privately-owned al-Akhbar newspaper, which has close ties to the presidency, said in its Sunday edition that Bashir made the remarks during the cabinet meeting which took place on Thursday afternoon. The Sudanese leader was briefing his ministers about the talks he held in Addis Ababa last weekend with South Sudan President Salva Kiir in a meeting arranged by Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and attended by Kenyan president Mwai Kibaki. Zenawi along with the chairman of the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) Thabo Mbeki tried to press Kiir and Bashir to sign an interim agreement that would reverse unilateral steps taken by Khartoum and Juba with regards to oil. The landlocked nation of South Sudan halted export of much of its oil through the north’s pipeline to Port Sudan in a dramatic escalation of a dispute over the payment of transit fees. Juba claims Khartoum confiscated US$815 million worth of its oil. Sudanese officials justified their move by saying that the negotiations on oil transit fees have yielded no results and that they can longer wait given their economic crisis resulting from the secession of the south. The al-Akhbar newspaper said that Bashir ended the meeting in an angry tone by saying “expect the worst with the south” before leaving. The brief statement took the ministers by surprise according to sources that were present at the meeting. On Friday, Bashir told the Blue Nile TV in an interview that war with South Sudan is a possibility though he stressed that they will not be the ones to start it. “The climate now is closer to a climate of war than one of peace," Bashir said. “We will not resort to the choice of war unless it is forced on us and we will not initiate the option of war because war is attrition for us and them…..it will be a war of attrition hitting them before us” he added. Last month, military sources revealed to Sudan Tribune that 700 officers warned Bashir and his defense minister Abdel-Rahim Mohamed Hussein against rushing to war with South Sudan citing challenges facing the army. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/Bashir-tells-his-cabinet-to,41515 END6 7. South Sudan’s Kiir unleashes barrage of attacks against Bashir February 6, 2012 (JUBA) – The president of South Sudan Salva Kiir on Monday launched a fierce attack on his Sudanese counterpart Omer Hassan al-Bashir calling him a “thief” and urging him to surrender himself to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Addressing members of the Sudan People Liberation Army (SPLA) at Bilpam military base in South Sudan’s capital of Juba, Kiir reiterated his country’s threat to sue Khartoum over oil it confiscated since late last year. The landlocked new nation took three-quarters of the oil production, the lifeline of both economies, but needs to pay for using northern export facilities and the Red Sea port of Port Sudan. The Sudanese government started seizing a portion of South Sudan’s oil pumped through the pipelines running in the north’s territory saying that this measure was taken after Juba failed to pay fees for exporting the crude which it said was close to $1 billion. South Sudan responded by shutting down its entire output of 350,000 barrels a day. Khartoum and Juba’s negotiations on the oil transit fees made little progress after the former insisted on charging $32 per barrel while the latter is pushing for a $1 fee. Kiir revealed that he pressed East African leaders to convince Bashir not to confiscate any of South Sudan’s oil. “We asked them to talk him out of this step but Bashir carried out what he decided so we were forced to close down oil wells because we are a sovereign nation and required to preserve our wealth,” he said. The southern leader disclosed that while shutting down oil wells they discovered that there were more wells than were recorded during the transition to an independent state last July. He suggested that this enabled Khartoum to “cheat” on the quantity of oil produced since the signing of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the north-south civil war which claimed 2 million lives. Kiir refuted Bashir’s assertions that he backed away from signing a framework agreement in Addis Ababa after initially agreeing to it before Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. “When I entered the [meeting] room I found Bashir telling jokes and I spoke to him in a good spirit. Shortly afterwards they brought the [agreement] document but I informed them that the proposals contained therein are left to the heads of the [negotiation] delegations; Pagan [Amum] and Idriss Abd-el-Kader and then I left” he explained. The SPLA commander in chief called on his soldiers not to attack northerners under any circumstances. “Any northern guy coming here fleeing war or Bashir do not ask him. Listen very well to me; I don’t want to hear that any one of you stirred trouble with northerners staying in Juba because they themselves are sick of Bashir” Kiir said. “Our problem is with Bashir and the gang of thieves around him,” he asserted. ‘I will send my four sons to war’ Kiir downplayed the warning made by Bashir last week that war has become a real possibility. “If Bashir wants to fight us in Juba, we will meet him in Judat [al-Fakkar border region]” he said. The South Sudan leader was apparently also responding to remarks made by Sudan’s 2nd vice president al-Haj Adam Youssef last month in which he said that Khartoum’s army could strike as far as Juba in pursuit of hunting rebels operating in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. But Kiir said that Bashir lacks “good thinking” as he wants to rush to war with South Sudan before resolving his other troubles. He also mocked Bashir’s talk about uniting the south by force saying that “he is dreaming”. He said that he will not hesitate to send his four sons to war should it erupt with the north adding that Bashir wants to slaughter the Sudanese people. “We are the most people to like northerners in Darfur, Nuba and Beja; All people up in the north are our friends…But he [Bashir] hates the Southerners" Kiir said. He called on Bashir to surrender himself to the ICC and embark on a trip to The Hague saying that the prisons there are luxurious. “He should get out of this heat and go to the cold country there [Netherlands]” Kiir said mockingly. Bashir was indicted in 2009 & 2010 by the ICC for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Darfur, where some 300,000 people are thought to have died in violence raging since a rebellion erupted there nine years ago. Sudan has refused to hand him over to the Hague-based court. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/South-Sudan-s-Kiir-unleashes,41526 END7 8. Juba tells Bashir not to beat the drums of war February 5, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – The Vice president of South Sudan Riek Machar dismissed statements made by Sudanese president Omer Hassan al-Bashir in which he raised the prospects of war between neighboring states. South Sudan’s Vice President Riek Machar (Reuters) “Our programme is peace with the north and we will work on it,” Machar told the London-based al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper. “We will not go to war with the north, not out of fear but because this is the logic and the voice of the whole world,” he added. “Why resort to war and in our hands is the way of peace through dialogue?". This week the Sudanese president suggested that tensions reached a level which makes the scenario of war a real possibility. “The climate now is closer to a climate of war than one of peace," Bashir said in a TV interview on Friday. The ex-foes have been unable to resolve their dispute over oil transit fees despite intense mediation efforts by the African Union (AU) and regional countries. The landlocked new nation took three-quarters of the oil production - the lifeline of both economies - but needs to pay for using northern export facilities and the Red Sea port of Port Sudan. Khartoum wants Juba to pay $32 per barrel of oil exported but the latter say $1 is the fair price. Tension rose when Sudan said last month it started seizing southern oil at Port Sudan as compensation for what it called unpaid pipeline transit fees. South Sudan responded by shutting down its entire output of 350,000 barrels a day. Machar said that suspending oil production does not mean they want to go to war with Sudan. “Oil is our resource and we have the right to deal with it however we please and Bashir should have encouraged the parties to [sit] for dialogue,” he said. South Sudan VP also reacted to statements by Sudanese foreign minister Ali Karti that Khartoum will use 700,000 of southerners living in the north if a war erupts. Machar said southerners on either side of the borders don’t want to go to war adding that 2 million cattle herders from the north operating in the south will have their presence terminated by end of March in accordance with the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). “Juba can repatriate its citizens who are in the north within six months,” he said. “But what they will do with more than two million coming annually to their interests in the south? So we see that peace is the logic that must be followed because there is no reason that can lead the two countries to fight a war again”. Machar also said that Bashir should try and solve his internal problems such as wars in Blue Nile, South Kordofan and Darfur as well as the economic crisis and unrest in East Sudan. “Khartoum does not want to be convinced that South Sudan has become a sovereign state, and the northern government must respect that and deal on the basis of that,” he said. “In any case we will go to the negotiations [on oil] with the Sudanese government on \February 10th in Addis Ababa and we will continue with the dialogue, but the threat does not work in such negotiations” Machar added. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/Juba-tells-Bashir-not-to-beat-the,41520 END8 9. The Sudans: government by war By Magdi El Gizouli February 4, 2012 — In an interview on Friday aired simultaneously by Sudan’s three major television stations President Bashir stated that Sudan was now closer to war than to peace with South Sudan. The declaration follows on the collapse of the recent round of negotiations between the two countries over oil transit fees. The details of the row are well documented in the media, and have provided rich material for analyses and forecasts. In brief, Khartoum started to confiscate a share of the South Sudanese oil flowing through the northern pipeline and then seized shipments of the oil in Port Sudan in lieu of transit fees still to be agreed upon between the two countries. In response, South Sudan halted its oil production altogether. Presidents Kiir and Bashir met in Addis Ababa at the helm of the negotiation teams but failed to reach an agreement. Temporary arrangements suggested by the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) and the Ethiopian Premier Meles Zenawi were reportedly accepted by President Bashir but rejected after some hesitation by President Kiir. South Sudan’s top negotiator, Pagan Amum, made it clear that only a comprehensive deal on all pending post-secession issues would satisfy his government. He demanded the transfer of Abyei and five other contested border areas to South Sudan as a condition for the resumption of oil production and export through (North) Sudan. With this announcement the impasse seemed to be insurmountable and war between the two states more or less inevitable. This, in general terms, is the standard reading of last month’s developments. In terms of risk assessment the scare of a full-scale war is obviously justified. The contention, however, is that Sudan and South Sudan are already at war. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) clashed several times since the secession of South Sudan with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) in Abyei, and continue to fight the SPLA in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, since the secession of South Sudan an officially separate force. Almost the entire border between Sudan and South Sudan is in fact a war zone. The transition to an officially acknowledged state of war, if it does take place, will not be a qualitative shift in relations between Juba and Khartoum but an extension of the current state of affairs. Arching further back one could argue that the the interim period of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), from 2005 to 2011, was just that, a peace break on the calendar of Sudan’s wars. To grasp why partition could not deliver the promised peace it is necessary to investigate once more the premises of partition, and the nature of the forces that presided over it. The rulers of Khartoum and Juba founded their separate kingdoms on the notion of an immutable contradiction between North and South, grounded in the differences of race, culture, religion and so forth. The same notion serves them well today as they attempt to tame the forces threatening their hegemony. In that sense, their failure to agree on a mutually beneficial arrangement to share the only resource at their disposal, irrational as it is, reflects a political rationale of the first order. To survive Khartoum and Juba need to disagree, the more suicidal the confrontation seems to be the better. Cooperation, by its mere occurrence, would rob both regimes of the very foundation of their rule, the liberation championed by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the ‘good riddance’ claim marketed by the National Congress Party (NCP). The Sudanese, on both sides of the 1956 border, are held hostage to this ideological ambience rooted in the history of the north-south encounter. To overcome this closure it is necessary to dispel the mystifications of national identity propagated by Khartoum and Juba in favour of a unity of purpose that heals the fractured corpus of the dispossessed but cuts through the presumed organic unity of each nation. This is the post-secession issue proper. The author is a fellow of the Rift Valley Institute. He publishes regular opinion articles and analyses at his blog Still Sudan. He can be reached at [email protected] (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/The-Sudans-government-by-war,41511 END9 10. In Sudan, glimpses of an Arab spring Wed Feb 8, 2012 2:01pm GMT By Ulf Laessing and Alexander Dziadosz KHARTOUM Feb 8(Reuters) - A few weeks ago, a leading opposition activist sat down in a downtown Khartoum office to talk to a journalist. The young man immediately removed the battery from his cellphone. "It's so they can't trace you," he said, placing the battery and the phone on the table. "Any one of the security agencies spread throughout the country can arrest you." Despite that danger, the activist, from an underground group called "Change Now", said he was convinced Sudan is on the brink of its own Arab Spring uprising. Hard times and growing frustration with the two-decades-old government of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir have sparked small protests in Khartoum and other university cities in the Arab-African state. The demonstrations are still tiny compared with those that shook Egypt and Libya. Sometimes about 30 people show up, hold banners denouncing the government for a couple of minutes, and then melt away before security agents arrive. But the demonstrations have become more frequent in the past few months and the question is, could they lead to something bigger? The main economic challenge is plain. When South Sudan seceded from the north last year, Khartoum lost about three-quarters of its oil, the main source of state revenues and hard currency. The Sudanese pound has slumped by as much as 70 percent below the official rate. Annual inflation is at 18 percent as the cost of food imports has shot up. Wars against insurgencies in different parts of the still-vast country have also soaked up government funds. In 1985, protests against food inflation toppled President Jaafar Nimeiri in some 10 days. But the government in Khartoum today says the economy is not nearly as bad as it was in the 1980s, when people had to queue for days to get rationed petrol or food. Sudan, it says, will not follow Egypt or Tunisia. Rabie Abdelati, a senior official in the information ministry and Bashir's National Congress Party (NCP), said that the economy was much better than in 1989 when Bashir came to power. "The situation at that time was very terrible," he said. "The government has the ability to overcome all obstacles." A relaxed-looking Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, spoke on state television for almost two hours last week to assure the population that the economic situation was under control. "We have a 3-year economic programme (but) this year will be the most difficult," the president said. "IT WAS LIKE ANGER ERUPTED" On the surface, life in the capital looks normal. Construction cranes loom on the banks of the Nile, working on new buildings and roads. The city bustles with foreign workers, maids and hotel staff. But there are sporadic signs that public anger is rising. In the last week of December, authorities temporarily closed the University of Khartoum after villagers displaced by a huge hydro-electric dam staged a protest, inspiring a week of some of the biggest student demonstrations in years. Weeks later, the spray-painted graffiti calling for "revolution" still covered a few walls near the university. "Most people didn't care about the first demonstration as we were all in exams mode," said a female computer technology student who took part. But when police came to the dormitories one night to detain some students, "it turned into a protest not just against the dam but against poverty, inflation and the bad situation for students," said the woman, playing with her blue head scarf. "It was like anger erupted," she added. "Now they want to punish us by closing the university, but it will make things worse. We don't get jobs after graduation. Life is so expensive, people are very angry." Abdelati, the information ministry official, said the protests were small and the university would reopen shortly. OIL AND CONFLICTS Sitting in front of a small metal workshop in downtown Khartoum, Sudanese construction worker Fateh Totu takes his time to recall when he last worked for longer than a week. At the moment he gets jobs for a couple of days, with sometimes a week in between. "Three, four years ago life was much better. The country was in good shape. Construction work was good," Totu said, drawing nods from fellow workers sitting on small plastic chairs along a dusty road. South Sudan's independence deprived Sudan - a country of 32 million people - of around 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) of the roughly 500,000 it pumped. Since then, oil exports, which made up 90 percent of Sudan's total exports, have fallen to zero. The remaining output in the north of around 115,000 bpd serves only domestic consumption. Industry insiders doubt significant new reserves will be found. But Azhari Abdallah, a senior oil official, said production would rise this year to 180,000 bpd, helped by more efficient technology and recovery rates. Other officials are less optimistic. Central bank governor Mohamed Kheir al-Zubeir has asked fellow Arab countries to deposit $4 billion with the central bank and commercial lenders to stabilise the economy. Finance Minister Ali Mahmoud said in September Sudan might need $1.5 billion in foreign aid annually. "The state spends a vast proportion of available resources on the security services. With three conflicts ongoing, the military's claim on the national treasury is only growing," said Aly Verjee, an analyst at the Rift Valley Institute. "While some austerity measures have been implemented, there is a general unwillingness in the government to take any step that might lead to popular discontent." Landlocked South Sudan must pump its oil through Sudan to the Red Sea. Northern officials hope the transit fees they charges will help. But a deal has been elusive - oil analysts say Khartoum has demanded a transit fee more than 10 times the international standard - and the breakaway state has so far refused to pay. Khartoum has seized oil awaiting shipment to compensate for what it argues are unpaid fees. Industry sources say the north has sold at least one shipment of southern oil. In protest, South Sudan has shut down production. OUTLOOK: "STABLE" How to find new revenues? Khartoum expects to have exported $3 billion of gold in 2011 plus another $1 billion of other minerals. Mining workers say the real figures are less than a third of that. "Only 7 of the 70 projected tonnes of gold output for 2011 come from regular mines," said a foreign mining executive who declined to be named. "The rest is produced by gold seekers whose output is very hard to verify, and often ends up being smuggled abroad." The government predicts 2 percent growth in 2012 but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) thinks the economy will contract. A senior Sudanese analyst with ties to the government says food inflation is much higher than the official figure. Prices for meat, sugar, vegetable oil and other staples are doubling every year, according to the analyst, who asked not to be named. Customs officials at Khartoum airport now search almost every piece of luggage brought into the country, hoping to find a laptop or other electric device on which they can charge duties. Khartoum had long known the South would secede, but did little to diversify its economy away from oil, bankers say. Just days after South Sudan became independent last July, Sudan's parliament, which is controlled by Bashir's National Congress Party (NCP), passed a budget predicting stable oil revenues. "They just thought it would continue like that," said a senior banker in Khartoum who declined to be named. "That's why I doubt they now have a plan to turn the economy around." Harry Verhoeven, a researcher at the University of Oxford who has studied Sudan extensively, said Khartoum had used its oil revenues for large, expensive projects such as the Merowe dam that sparked December's protest. ISOLATED Since the united States imposed a trade embargo on Sudan in 1997, most Western firms have shunned the country. The ongoing domestic insurgencies and the International Criminal Court's indictment of Bashir mean that's unlikely to end any time soon. That leaves Khartoum reliant on China, its biggest trading partner, and Gulf Arab states. But no substantial aid or loans have been announced yet apart from small development programmes. At an Arab investment conference in December, prominent Saudi businessman Sheikh Saleh Kamal slammed Sudan's taxation, investment, land and work laws. "I said it already in the '90s but I repeat it again since nothing has changed," said Kamal, head of Islamic lender Al-Baraka Banking Group and the Islamic Chamber of Commerce and Industry. "The investment climate in Sudan does not help to attract any investments." MIXED MESSAGES Despite the growing problems, organising protests isn't easy. Power cuts, unreliable cell phone networks and low internet usage make it hard to mobilise people through Facebook or Twitter as happened in Egypt. Activists are trying to link up with groups such as the people displaced by the Merowe dam, or poor farmers. Many are frustrated with the inconsistent and ineffectual opposition parties, most of which are run by former rulers in their 70s. Activists say the main opposition party, the Umma Party, is unwilling to call for mass protests. The party's veteran chairman Sadeq al-Mahdi recently said he wanted the president to go. But his son just became a presidential assistant in Bashir's office. The leaders of another big opposition party have decided to join the government. For the female computer technology student, the only way is out. "I'm just tired of Sudanese politics. I think there will be a revolution, but nothing will change. We will have the same people," she said. "I just want to leave Sudan. I don't see any job prospects here. I think 90 percent of students want to leave Sudan." (Writing by Ulf Laessing; additional reporting by Khalid Abdelaziz; Editing by Simon Robinson and Sara Ledwith) http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL3E8C9AB220120208?sp=true END10 11. Nafie accuses opposition of conspiring with South Sudan February 7, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – The vice-president of Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and presidential assistant, Nafie Ali Nafie, has accused the opposition of seeking to coordinate activities with South Sudan in order to overthrow the government in Khartoum. Sudan recently stepped up repression of opposition activities as the government became embroiled in a bitter dispute with neighboring South Sudan over a charge for transporting oil of the land-locked south through Sudanese territories. In statements reported on Tuesday by the Sudanese Media Center (SMC), a website linked to the country’s intelligence apparatus, Nafie said that the authorities were aware of plans by some opposition parties and figures to exploit what he termed as the conspiracy led by South Sudan’s government to execute Western agendas aiming to change the government in Khartoum. He further said that the opposition forces in question are preparing to play the role defined for them by the West and return to rule the country. The hard-line NCP figure threatened that the government would show no laxity in squelching activities of “espionage and mercenarism” Sudan and South Sudan have been exchanging accusations of supporting rebel and opposition groups on each other’s territories since the south seceded and formed an independent country in July last year. The NCP is highly suspicious of any links between Sudanese opposition groups and the southern government. Sudanese security authorities recently detained a senior member of the opposition Popular Congress Party upon his return from a visit to South Sudan. Turning to South Sudan, Nafie accused the government in Juba of supporting the Sudanese opposition and conducting a media, legal and economic campaign against Khartoum with help from Western organizations and embassies. Nafie warned that the government would respond strongly to any attempts to sabotage Sudanese economy or destroy oil infrastructure facilities, referring to the support Juba is allegedly providing to the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement North (SPLMN) whose fighters are battling government forces in regions along the contested borders with South Sudan. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/Nafie-accuses-opposition-of,41536 END11 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 82 050 1235 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. 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