---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: John Ashworth <[email protected]>
Date: Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 11:17 AM
Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] South Sudan offers to withdraw forces,
urges Sudan to do same
To: Group <[email protected]>
Sudan Tribune (article 2, below) repeats the common error that "Heglig
is internationally recognised as being in Sudan’s South Kordofan State
as per a ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in
2009". Let me repeat: the PCA made no ruling on the Sudan-South Sudan
border. It only determined the 1905 boundaries of Abyei, and that
Heglig does not fall within the 1905 boundaries of Abyei. It did not
rule on whether Heglig is in Sudan or South Sudan.
In article 3, below, this mistake is perpetuated by Global Witness
(Heglig is "clearly within the boundaries of Sudan's current
administrative borders"), and the AU ("the illegal occupation"), both
of whom should know better. However the Eurasia Group has a more
balanced assessment, "The north has traditionally laid greater claim
to Heglig since the south's independence, but the area technically
floats between the north and the south despite the oilfields being
operated under the north's view since independence... When
negotiations do resume, questions over border demarcation in this area
will be front and centre." Sudan Tribune also presents a more balanced
view in article 4, below.
However, it has to be said that Khartoum's narrative is currently
dominating the discussions amongst international players, most of whom
know little about this complex situation and indeed shy away from
engaging with complexity in favour of simplistic solutions. The
government, people and friends of South Sudan need to work hard to
ensure that their narrative gains traction.
Sudan Tribune is correct that "The SPLA’s decision to take and hold
Heglig is the second bold move Juba has made this year", the first
being the halting of oil production. Both the Khartoum regime and the
international community tend to underestimate South Sudan. While the
government in Juba has certainly tried to avoid war throughout nearly
10 months of political and military provocation by Khartoum,
nevertheless it has now demonstrated its resolve when pushed too far.
John
BEGIN
1. South Sudan Urges North [sic] to Withdraw Forces, Vows to Do Same
By Bloomberg News on April 13, 2012
South Sudan is willing to resume negotiations once Sudan agrees to end
hostilities and the United Nations deploys forces for peace-monitoring
in seven disputed areas, said the country’s chief negotiator, Pagan
Amum.
“South Sudan is ready to return to negotiations with the government of
Sudan immediately,” Amum, secretary-general of the south’s Sudan
People’s Liberation Movement, told reporters today in Nairobi, the
capital of neighboring Kenya. The UN “has to deploy into all contested
areas and then the parties need to go to international arbitration,”
and a demilitarized buffer zone should also be set up, Amum said.
South Sudan seceded from Sudan in July last year, the result of a 2005
peace deal that ended two decades of war. New fighting in the
ill-defined border region separating the two nations broke out after
South Sudanese forces seized control of the oil-rich Heglig region on
April 10. The south went on the offensive after coming under aerial
bombardment by Sudanese military airplanes on 60 occasions since March
and facing ground attacks that were planned in Heglig, Amum said.
The UN Security Council yesterday joined the African Union in calling
for South Sudanese forces to withdraw from Heglig and for Sudan to
stop the bombings to avert war.
This week’s clashes prompted Sudan to pull out of African- Union
sponsored talks over oil revenue-sharing, border demarcation and
citizenship rights, and suspend oil production in Heglig, which it
lays claim to along with its crude deposits. South Sudan disagrees.
Oil Production
Sudan produces about 60,000 barrels a day of crude from oilfields in
Heglig in Southern Kordofan state, about half of the country’s daily
production, according to Global Witness, a London-based advocacy
group. China National Petroleum Corp., Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional
Bhd (PET). and India’s ONGC Videsh Ltd. pump most of the oil in the
two countries.
South Sudan assumed control of about three-quarters of the former
unified Sudan’s output of 490,000 barrels a day when it seceded, and
oil accounts for 90 percent of its revenue. To transport the crude, it
relies on a pipeline that runs via the north to Port Sudan’s export
terminal on the Red Sea. In January, South Sudan halted oilfield
operations and stopped exporting through Sudan amid a dispute over
transit fees.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-13/south-sudan-urges-north-to-withdraw-forces-vows-to-do-same
END1
2. International peacekeepers prerequisite to withdraw South Sudan troops - Kiir
April 13, 2012 (JUBA) – South Sudan’s president Salva Kiir Mayardit
demanded Sunday that United Nations peacekeepers be deployed on the
border with Sudan before to withdraw its troops from Heglig.
The SPLA’s occupation of Heglig on Tuesday 10 April has surprised many
observers including Khartoum, who have vowed to retake the area, which
accounts for over half of its oil production.
South Sudan has come under immense pressure to withdraw from the area,
which was not one of the five main disputed areas on the 1,800km
largely demarcated border under negotiation in African Union (AU)
chaired in Addis Ababa. Heglig is internationally recognised as being
in Sudan’s South Kordofan State as per a ruling if the Permanent Court
of Arbitration in The Hague in 2009.
Since the SPLA took Heglig the UN, AU, European Union and individual
nations that have been string supporters of South Sudan’s
independence; the United States, United Kingdom and Norway have all
called for the SPLA’s immediate withdrawal. Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)
has also been asked to stop its bombing South Sudanese territory and
both sides to cease assisting rebels either side of the border.
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir in a statement released Friday
outlined the circumstances under which he would withdraw the SPLA. He
asked for "a clear mechanism and guarantee [...] that Heglig will not
be used to launch another attack against South Sudan."
Kiir further pointed out that the SPLA troops will be pulled out of
Heglig if the "United Nations could commit to deploying neutral forces
to Heglig which could be present in the area until a settlement
between the two parties is reached."
In a press conference held in the Kenyan capital South Sudan top
negotiator on the outstanding issue Pagan Amum echoed the content of
the presidential statement and urged the deployment of an
international forces before the SPLA withdrawal.
"We are ready to withdraw from Heglig as a contested area ... provided
that the United Nations deploy a U.N. force in these contested areas
and the U.N. also establish a monitoring mechanism to monitor the
implementation of the cessation of hostilities agreement," Pagan said.
In Khartoum, where the government rejects any South Sudanese claims on
Heglig, SAF spokesperson al-Sawarmi Khaled on Friday announced that
the army had launched a counter-offensive that would force the SPLA
out of the area. The outcome of the SAF offensive was unclear on
Friday evening.
Juba said the capture of Heglig came as result of repeat air and
ground attacks on Unity State by the Sudanese army units based in the
area. However, Salva Kiir two days after the attack invoked before the
parliament the unresolved situation in Abyei and linked it with the
seizure of Heglig.
ABYEI
Bordering Heglig in Abyei a UN force is deployed with a mandate to
oversee the withdrawal of SAF and SPLA forces after the north took
Abyei town by force in May last year. However, Abyei is recognised as
being a disputed territory internationally unlike Heglig, which South
Sudanese refer to as Panthou.
"We remind the international community that SAF-forces still occupies
Abyei despite repeated calls for withdrawal of all armed forces from
the area" said the statement. South Sudan accuses the international
community of moral equivalence over Abyei - an oil producing are that
border Heglig - and believes Khartoum should receive more pressure to
withdraw as per an agreement last year.
A recent UN Security Council report found that both countries has
unauthorised forces in the area, whose self-determination referendum
did not take place in January 2011 as the two sides could not agree on
who should be allowed to vote.
"South Sudan has not and will not use force to resolve these issues",
the release from Kiir’s office said.
OIL DISPUTE
The SPLA’s decision to take and hold Heglig is the second bold move
Juba has made this year. In January it announced that it would halt
oil production over a transit fee dispute with Khartoum. It had widely
been assumed that Juba’s threat to turn off the pumps was
brinkmanship.
When South Sudan seceded it took with it 75% of the country’s oil
production but the two sides have not been able to agree how much the
new landlocked should pay to transport its crude to the Red Sea.
On Thursday South Sudan announced it had shut down the Heglig oil
fields meaning that Sudan lost over half of its 110,000 barrels per
day oil production. Queues were reported at petrol stations in the
capital as fears grew of a fuel shortage, but this has been dismissed
by the government.
As well as at the pump the ripple effect has reached Khartoum
politically with newspapers being warned over what they report and
threats to limit the activities of political parties the government
says are aligned to rebel groups in South Kordofan, Blue Nile and
Darfur.
MACHAR CALLS ON UNITY STATE CITIZENS TO HELP SPLA
Officials in Unity State have claimed that SAF have dropped numerous
bombs on the area targeting its oil fields as well as civilians.
Despite evidence of large craters and remnants of shells being
reported, Khartoum denies it has bombed South Sudanese territory.
Sudan and South Sudan launched recently large scale campaigns to
mobilise civilians’ support to the army but also to recruit new
soldiers and militias.
On Friday South Sudan’s Vice President, Riek Machar Teny, urged
citizens of the new country, which became independent in July 2011, to
support the army in repulsing what he said was an unprovoked invasion
of South Sudan’s territory by Sudan.
The commander of the SPLA Division Four in Unity State, Major General
James Gatduel Gatluak, who briefed Machar, on Tuesday in the Unity
State’s capital, Bentiu, said his forces only responded to the
“provocative” assault by SAF and repulsed the invading forces,
pursuing them into Heglig town and capturing it.
Machar has been based in Bentiu for the last week on an inter-communal
peace mission touring counties of Unity and Warrap states. He called
on the citizens of the bordering states to materially and morally
support the SPLA in defending the territorial integrity of South
Sudan.
The Vice President also urged the communities in the three states of
Warrap, Lakes and Unity to stop cross-border cattle raiding and
reconcile in order to face the challenges ahead of the nation.
Communities and civil society organizations in Unity State have
contributed hundreds of bulls and other consumable commodities to the
SPLA forces on the frontline.
(ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/International-peacekeepers,42236
END2
3. Sudan launches counterattack in oil region
Jared Ferrie
The National
Apr 14, 2012
JUBA // Sudan’s army said yesterday it has launched a counterattack
towards Heglig town in its main oil-producing region where South
Sudanese forces took control earlier this week.
“Now we are moving towards Heglig town” and are “close,” army
spokesman Sawarmi Khaled Saad said in a statement.
Meanwhile, South Sudan said yesterday it would withdraw its troops if
the United Nations deployed neutral forces in the area.
The statement followed days of ground fighting and aerial bombardment
that analysts say have brought the countries closer to all-out
conflict than any time since a two-decade civil war that ended with a
2005 peace agreement, which led to the south's secession.
The African Union demanded yesterday that South Sudan withdraw from
the area a day after the country's president pledged to continue the
occupation and blamed Sudan for instigating the conflict.
The AU said it was "dismayed by the illegal occupation" of the
frontier region of Heglig, and called for the "immediate and
unconditional withdrawal of the army of South Sudan". The AU also
demanded that Sudan stop bombing southern territory, which it has done
repeatedly, including an attack on a refugee camp in November and
Wednesday's bombing several kilometres outside Bentiu, the capital of
Unity state.
Heglig, which the south claims as its own, is vital to Sudan's economy
because it has a field accounting for about half of its 115,000
barrel-a-day oil output. The fighting has stopped production there,
officials say.
Speaking in Nairobi, Pagan Amum, South Sudan's lead negotiator at
talks to resolve the dispute with Sudan, said his country was ready to
withdraw under a UN mediated plan.
"On the ground, we are ready to withdraw from Heglig as a contested
area ... provided that the United Nations deploy a UN force in these
contested areas and the UN also establish a monitoring mechanism to
monitor the implementation of the cessation of hostilities agreement,"
he told reporters.
Mr Amum said there were seven disputed areas and called for
international arbitration to end the dispute over these regions.
The Khartoum government desperately needs the revenue from Heglig, as
its economy has been reeling since Sudan lost three quarters of its
oil reserves when the south separated last July.
"With more than half of its production shut down, Sudan is likely to
very quickly face a fuel crisis with massive implications across the
already ailing economy," said Dana Wilkins, a Sudan oil expert with
the natural resources watchdog group Global Witness.
She said a continued occupation is likely to alienate many South Sudan
supporters in the international community, especially as Heglig is
"clearly within the boundaries of Sudan's current administrative
borders".
"This prolonged occupation is also likely to be taken in Khartoum as a
de facto declaration of war, opening up the floodgates for much more
significant violence on both sides of the border."
Marc Mercer, an analyst with Eurasia Group, a political
risk-assessment firm, said Khartoum would use all its military might
to retake the oilfields. He said a refusal by the south to withdraw
troops could bring the countries to the brink of war.
"The north has traditionally laid greater claim to Heglig since the
south's independence, but the area technically floats between the
north and the south despite the oilfields being operated under the
north's view since independence," he said. "When negotiations do
resume, questions over border demarcation in this area will be front
and centre."
In Juba yesterday, about 200 people demonstrated at a
government-organised protest against Sudan and in support of the
occupation of Heglig, holding banners which read: "The people want the
army to be in Heglig" and "They bomb children and women".
South Sudan's armed forces spokesman, Philip Aguer, said the army was
still in control of Heglig and said there had not been any further
fighting yesterday.
Heglig "is part of South Sudan and under our control. If they want to
retake it, let them try it. We are ready," he said.
http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/africa/sudan-launches-counterattack-in-oil-region
END3
4. SPLA says Heglig is South Sudanese, vows to defend 1956 border
April 13, 2012 (JUBA) - South Sudan’s army has asserted readiness to
defend the country at “all cost” and claimed that the oil-rich Heglig
area is within their country, despite it being internationally
recognised as being part of Sudan.
Since Tuesday the South Sudanese military SPLA has held the Heglig
area in South Kordofan and abruptly turned off the oil pumps,
depriving Sudan of over half of its 110,000 barrels per day of crude
production.
Until fighting over Heglig began in late March South Sudan had seemed
to have accepted Heglig was in South Kordofan, as per a decision by
the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2009. But in recent
days South Sudan has reasserted its claim over the area and said it
will not pull out unless UN troops are deployed or Khartoum gives
guarantees Heglig will not be used a base to launch attacks on South
Sudan.
On Thursday James Hoth Mai, the Chief of General Staff of the Sudan
People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) said his forces "not going anywhere".
“Panthou [as South Sudan calls Heglig] is within our territory and we
are in our country. We have not crossed into anybody’s territory. We
are inside our country and we are there to stay."
Mai told a group of South Sudanese youth that the SPLA was ready to
fight the north Sudanese army, who on Friday announced a
counteroffensive in an attempt to retake the area.
"Let them come. We will meet where men meets. We will meet in the
middle and not inside the children and elderly people. We will face
them”, Mai declared amid applause.
He called on the youth across the nine-month-old nation to reconcile
their differences and unite against what he described as an invasion
by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) on South Sudan’s oil-rich Unity State.
Juba maintains that it took Heglig in response to a SAF ground
offensive and weeks of bombing inside South Sudanese territory.
Khartoum denies both charges.
Sudan’s president Bashir has formed a committee to oversee a
nationwide mobilisation of Sudan military and paramilitary forces and
a massive recruitment drive to respond to the border conflict and the
war in South Kordofan an Blue Nile which began last year.
South Sudan has announced a similar campaign in states the border Sudan.
"We will fight to die in our territory," the general said reiterating
his call on the youth to be ready for voluntary mobilisation and
training by the country’s army in order to respond to what he
described as “daily provocations in our oilfields”.
Juba suspects that Khartoum is using militias in Unity and other areas
states to destabilise the country so that Sudan can reclaim the oil
fields it lost when South Sudan seceded last year taking with it 75%
of oil production.
In January South Sudan shut off its 350,000 barrels per day of crude
output and refused to continue transporting its oil through the north
accusing Khartoum of having "stolen" around 6 million barrels of
southern crude since December.
Khartoum has not acknowledged that figure but has admitted taking oil
as payment in kind for what it says are unpaid fees. The border
conflict has raised fears of a return to all out war between the two
nations.
A 2005 peace expired in July 2011 South Sudan became independent,
bringing and end to the revenue from southern crude being split 50:50
with the north. Oil was one of the many issues fought over in the
two-decade war the led to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and is
vital for both governments; especially South Sudan.
According to Mai, the oil-rich Heglig area was named Panthou by former
Sudanese president Jafar Nimery after the discovery of oil in the
area.
The general argued that there was documentary evidence identifying
clearly that Panthou (Heglig) belongs to the republic of South Sudan
and that can be found in the British archive which demarcated
boundaries between the two regions when Sudan gained her independence
in 1956.
“Since when has Panthou been part of Sudan? This area has it original
name known has Panthou. It is an area deeply inside South Sudan
territory under Panrieng County, in what used to be called Western
Upper Nile, but late former Sudanese president Jafar Nimery named it
Unity State”, he said.
He explained that president Nimery changed the name of the area from
being western Upper Nile province and named it Unity after discovery
of the oil in 1970s with intention to annex the whole area to the
north but that did not work as it provoked the war.
The army’s spokesman, Colonel Philip Aguer, equally concurred with
views held by the General Mai, and explained that Panthou is an area
under Panrieng County and used to be inhibited by Dinka Ngok of Panru
clan before eruption of civil war and subsequent eviction of the local
people by the Sudanese army when the oil was discovered to allow
Chinese oil companies exploit it.
"It has never been part of Sudan. It is a historical place within
Panru area”, he said.
The senior military figures spoke after President Salva Kiir’s deviant
speech to South Sudan’s parliament where he listed the international
bodies and countries he had ignored in their calling the SPLA to
withdraw.
After Kiir’s speech Alfred Sebit Wani an MP from Central Equatoria
State said: “We have never supported return to war as it has been the
position of our president but if Sudan has decided to invade our
country, we shall all die with our army.”
(ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/SPLA-says-Heglig-is-South-Sudanese,42238
END4
5. Sudanese opposition declares plans to end war with South Sudan
April 12, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – Leaders of Sudan’s mainstream opposition
parties have announced they are due to meet on Monday, 16 April, to
discuss ways of extricating the country from its current war with
neighbouring South Sudan.
The National Consensus Forces (NCF), an opposition coalition including
the National Umma Party (NUP) led by former Prime Minister Al-Sadiq
al-Mahdi, the Popular Congress Party (PCP) of the veteran Islamist
Hassan Al-Turabi, on Thursday said that their planned meeting aims to
explore all possibilities of seeking a negotiated settlement to the
war.
The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum has already
declared public mobilisation following the occupation on Wednesday of
Heglig - an oil-producing town in the country’s border state of South
Kordofan - by South Sudan’s army.
“Our common direction is to play a role in stopping the war and
negotiate with all sides in order to prevent the country from sliding
back to an all-out war” said NCF’s Chairman Farouq Abu Issa in a press
conference at the house of the NUP’s leading member Mubarak Al-Fadil
in the capital Khartoum.
According to Abu Issa, the NCF has decided to put on hold all of its
other agendas pending the meeting on Monday, adding that it is no
longer possible to remain silent in the face of the current situation.
He further announced that the NCF is willing to sit down with all
holders of arms in order to reach a negotiated settlement to the war.
“We will move to spare our country this war without waiting for
approval from anyone” he said, in an apparent dig at the NCP.
It is unlikely that the NCP would be comfortable with any form of
direct contact between the opposition and South Sudan or any of the
rebels Khartoum accuses Juba of backing in the country’s border states
of South Kordofan and Blue Nile.
The NCP has already accused the opposition of precipitating panic in
the wake of Heglig takeover by spreading rumours about an imminent
scarcity of fuel as a result of losing Heglig
Al-Haj Adam Youssef, head of the NCP’s political sector and second
vice-president, said during a party meeting on Thursday that
opposition parties had instructed its members to form long queues in
front of petro-stations to delude citizens into believing that a
shortage of fuel is happening as a result of Heglig situation.
Youssef assured citizens that the supply of fuel is stable and that
the government would soon retaliate and reclaim Heglig.
(ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudanese-opposition-declares-plans,42231
END5
______________________
John Ashworth
Sudan, South Sudan Advisor
[email protected]
+254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile)
+211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile)
+27 82 050 1235 (South Africa mobile)
+44 750 304 1790 (UK/international)
+88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone)
PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya
This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily
reflect the views of any organisation
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