---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Thu, Apr 19, 2012 at 11:32 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] "Insects" of South Sudan To: Group <[email protected]>
A senior international church leader said to me yesterday, "many statements, including those of AU and UN, seem to suggest that South Sudan just woke up one morning and decided to invade and occupy Heglig. And then they go ahead to apportion equal blame to the two states. We have to find a way of countering this perspective." The international discourse seems to be based on Khartoum's narrative. This must be balanced with Juba's narrative, not in order to support Juba's claim, but in the interests of resolving the problem. A one-sided approach will not lead to lasting peace. As Juba's Spokesperson Dr. Barnaba Marial says, “I think it is good that the Security Council first listens to the story of Heglig, and I think they have not listened adequately from our point of view" (article 6, below). Indeed South Sudan did NOT just wake up one morning and decide to occupy Heglig. It should be remembered that President Salva Kiir has always followed a policy of refraining from military action. In the run up to the referendum and independence, he specifically instructed his commanders not to be provoked by Khartoum's military aggression, and not to retaliate. This policy proved remarkably successful and helped to deliver a peaceful referendum and independence. The President then continued to pursue a similar non-military policy for 9 months or so after independence. Khartoum has walked out of negotiations, made unreasonable demands (eg demanding more than ten times the international standard fees for transit of South Sudanese oil through its pipelines), abrogated agreements which it had already signed (eg the peace deal with SPLM-N, the agreement on the status of South Sudanese in Sudan, to say nothing of the Abyei Protocol), continued its military occupation of the disputed area of Abyei, harassed South Sudanese in Sudan, continued to attack South Sudan's former allies in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile, siphoned off (or stolen) a percentage of South Sudan's oil, attempted to build illegal pipelines, forcibly occupied the disputed area of Jau, bombed refugee camps and civilians well inside South Sudan, supported South Sudanese rebel movements (and allowed them to abduct and forcibly recruit South Sudanese in Sudan), stifled cross-border trade, and much more. As article 5, below, points out, "the Khartoum government has been launching ground and air attacks against [South Sudan] since it declared independence July 9 [2011]". During all of this, South Sudan's army did not retaliate offensively, limiting itself to pushing SAF out of Jau but stopping when it reached the current border (which is not the 1956 border). President Salva Kiir's policy of restraint was not popular in South Sudan; people were asking, "What is the matter with him?" Now, after nine months of restraint in the face of intransigence and provocation by Khartoum, South Sudan has finally decided to assert itself a little, by following an SAF force which attacked South Sudan back to their base, the disputed town of Heglig/Panthou, and ensuring that it could no longer be used as a jumping off point for further aerial and ground attacks on South Sudan. It also made the political point that Heglig/Panthou is disputed, that the current border is not the 1956 border, and that it is erroneous to insist that a town is north or south of the 1956 border until the 1956 border has actually been demarcated to the satisfaction of both sides. It seems to be a very popular move amongst the people of South Sudan. The result is that the international community leaps to blame South Sudan, which has been so restrained for so long. At the same time, President Omar Hassan al Bashir has now declared that his aim is to change the government in Juba, which he has described as "insects". Surely this is a rather serious matter, when a president declares that he will take military action to overthrow the government of another sovereign state? Can we now expect the international community to severely censure Khartoum and make it clear that any attempt to change the government of another sovereign state will be met with the strongest possible sanctions? Can we expect them to cease their "moral equivalence" and recognise that there is an aggressor here - and that aggressor is not the "insects" of South Sudan? Urging both sides to make peace is fine, but which is the side that has consistently refused to make peace, and which is the side that has acted in a restrained manner and genuinely tried not to be drawn into armed conflict? Note that South Sudan has offered to withdraw from Heglig/Panthou if the UN puts a neutral force there (articles 2 and 6, below), an offer which the international community is unlikely to accept because Khartoum will not agree. Again, which side is refusing to make peace in Heglig? I don't think I will ever understand the international community! The BBC makes two errors in article 1, below. Firstly, it is not true that Heglig is "generally recognised as Sudanese territory". Many analysts who actually know what they are talking about (as opposed to journalists, diplomats and politicians) argue that it is disputed. Millions of South Sudanese, Nuba and others "generally recognise" that Heglig belongs in South Sudan. Secondly, both sides do NOT "claim" Abyei. South Sudan claims that the residents of Abyei should have the referendum which they were promised in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement to decide whether Abyei should be part of Sudan or South Sudan; Khartoum has blocked the referendum and occupied the area militarily. John BEGIN 1. Sudan president seeks to 'liberate' South Sudan BBC 19 April 2012 Last updated at 01:03 Sudan President Omar al-Bashir has said his main goal is now to "liberate" the people of South Sudan from its rulers following recent border clashes. The former rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) has ruled South Sudan since it seceded from Sudan in July 2011. President Bashir described the SPLM as "insects" that needed to be eliminated. Fighting between the two countries has now spread to another area, further adding to fears of all-out war. South Sudan seized the Heglig oil field - generally recognised as Sudanese territory - eight days ago. On Tuesday fighting broke out north of Aweil in South Sudan, about 100 miles (160km) west of Heglig. The South Sudanese military said 22 soldiers had been killed, with casualties on both sides. 'Disease' Mr Bashir told a rally at his party's headquarters that the SPLM needed to be removed. "We say that it has turned into a disease, a disease for us and for the South Sudanese citizens. The main goal should be liberation from these insects and to get rid of them once and for all, God willing." The reference to insects is an apparent play on the SPLM's Arabic name. He told the crowd that his message to the SPLM was: "Either we end up in Juba and take everything, or you end up in Khartoum and take everything." The BBC's James Copnall in Khartoum says the comments sounded like a declaration of war. President Bashir also predicted that "within a few hours you are going to listen to good news from your brothers in Heglig". Sudan army officials made similar comments when they started a counter-attack on Friday. After President Bashir made his comments a South Sudan minister called for negotiations. "We can only resolve this through talks with the African Union," Minister of Information, Barnaba Marial Benjamin, told Agence France-Presse. On Tuesday international envoys to Sudan told the United Nations Security Council that both sides were "locked in the logic of war". A Sudanese foreign ministry official said Sudan would end the occupation of Heglig "by hook or crook". Our correspondent says civilians in both Sudan and South Sudan are volunteering to join paramilitary forces. But he says others are involved in protest movements, saying they do not want this war against people who were recently their fellow citizens. They feel bad leadership has led them to the verge of all-out war. A non-Sudanese source close to the border talks told the BBC that during years of discussions before its independence, South Sudan never claimed Heglig as part of its territory. In a separate development, the world's newest country became a member of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday. Analysis James Copnall BBC News, Khartoum President Bashir's speeches can be divided into two categories. In the first he reads a pre-prepared speech, and sticks to it. In the second, he improvises - and often takes a much harder line. This latest effort clearly fits into the second category. If the President acts on his words, Sudan and South Sudan are at war. The essential messages - that he intends to get rid of the SPLM, and what started in Heglig can only finish in Juba or Khartoum - can mean only this. President Bashir may calculate that in difficult economic times he needs an external enemy to unite the nation behind. But the Sudanese Armed Forces are already overstretched. They haven't been able to fully overcome rebellions in Darfur, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, and they also failed to hold onto Heglig. South Sudan is also less well equipped militarily than Sudan, and shutting down its oil resources deprived it of 98% of its revenue. All out war would be disastrous for both, but that is the direction they are heading. Main disputes between the two Sudans Transit fees the South should pay Sudan to use its oil pipelines Demarcating the border Both sides claim Abyei The rights of each other's citizens now in a foreign country - there are estimated to be 500,000 southerners in Sudan and 80,000 Sudanese in the South Each accuses the other of supporting rebel groups on its territory The current spate of fighting is the worst since South Sudan's independence last year, which followed two decades of civil war between Mr Bashir's government and the SPLM. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17761949 END1 2. Sudan's Bashir vows to "liberate" South Sudan Wed Apr 18, 2012 7:18pm GMT * Border clashes worst since South Sudan seceded * Prolonged fighting would damage fragile economies * Rebels in Sudan's Darfur region also report attack By Alexander Dziadosz and Ulf Laessing KHARTOUM/JUBA, April 18 (Reuters) - Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir vowed on Wednesday to "liberate" South Sudan from its ruling party, a sharp escalation of rhetoric after fierce border clashes that edged the African neighbours closer to all-out war. There has been growing alarm over the worst violence seen since South Sudan split away from Sudan as an independent country in July under the terms of a 2005 peace settlement. Global powers have urged the two sides to end the fighting. South Sudan seized the contested oil-producing Heglig region last week, prompting Sudan's parliament to brand its former civil war foe an "enemy" on Monday and to call for a swift recapture of the flat savanna region. In a fiery speech to members of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) singing military songs, Bashir repeatedly referred to the South's ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) as "insects", a play on their Arabic name. "Our main goal is liberation of the southern citizens from the SPLM," Bashir said. "This is our responsibility before the Southern people." He went on to predict "good news" from Heglig within a few hours, but also suggested tensions would not end until the South's ruling party collapsed. He did not specify how that might happen. "The story began in Heglig, but it will end in Khartoum or Juba," Bashir said. Shortly after the speech, South Sudan's army (SPLA) spokesman said the South's forces had repulsed "a very big attack" on Heglig, which is known as Panthou in the south. There was no immediate comment on this from Sudan or independent confirmation of the claim. Earlier on Wednesday, Sudan and South Sudan accused one another of launching attacks on a new front. South Sudan's army said a total of 22 soldiers died in the fighting. Both countries are economically dependent on oil. Any protracted fighting would severely hit their economies. "AN EXPLOSIVE SITUATION" Distrust runs deep between the neighbours, who are at loggerheads over the position of their border, how much the landlocked South should pay to transport its oil through Sudan and the division of national debt, among other issues. South Sudan says Heglig is its rightful territory and has said it will only withdraw if the United Nations deploys a neutral force there. In Juba, around 1,000 South Sudanese gathered at a rally, chanting: "Down with Bashir". They also criticised U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon after the U.N. Security Council had called on South Sudan to pull out from Heglig. "Down with Ban Ki-moon!" Alfred Lado Gore, environment minister and a senior SPLM official, told the cheering crowd. "We managed to win our independence and we will win Heglig and (the disputed region of) Abyei." Russia, a permanent U.N. Security Council member, called on South Sudan to withdraw immediately to defuse "an explosive situation" in Heglig. Sudan said it had repulsed an attack on Tuesday by South Sudan's armed forces near the Bahr al-Arab river, known as the Kiir River in the south. "Limited forces from the SPLA carried out an attack on the area to divert the efforts of the armed forces working to liberate the Heglig region," the state-linked Sudanese Media Centre quoted a local military official as saying. The report said the fighting took place 62 km (39 miles) south of Mairem which, maps show, is on the boundary between the Sudanese regions of South Kordofan and Darfur, the scene of a separate insurgency against the Khartoum government. South Sudan's military spokesman, Philip Aguer, confirmed the clashes took place but said the SPLA had not tried to enter Sudan's territory. The fighting broke out after southern troops were shelled while trying to collect water, he said. "They reacted, and fighting erupted between them," Aguer said. "Our forces crossed the river, crossed the bridge briefly, but the command recalled them back." He said 15 Sudanese soldiers and seven SPLA troops were killed, figures impossible to verify independently. In a sign rebel groups in Sudan might be trying to take advantage of the tensions, insurgents based in Darfur said late on Tuesday they had destroyed a Sudanese military base and taken control of a town. The reports from a faction of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) loyal to Minni Minnawi could not be independently verified, and Sudan's army spokesman was not immediately available to comment. In Khartoum, Sudanese foreign ministry official Omer Mohamed told reporters Sudan would continue to press diplomatic as well as military efforts to recover Heglig. "We have to end the occupation by hook or crook, by either way." The 15-nation U.N. Security Council on Tuesday reiterated its call for Sudan to stop air strikes and South Sudan to withdraw from Heglig. It also discussed imposing sanctions on the countries if they did not stop the clashes. Sudan said sanctions should only be directed against South Sudan, who it accuses of violating its sovereignty. (Additional reporting by Michelle Nichols at the United Nations and Steve Gutterman in Moscow; Editing by Maria Golovnina) http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL6E8FIE4E20120418?sp=true END2 3. Bashir vows to “free” South Sudan’s people from SPLM April 18, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – Sudan’s President Omer Al-Bashir escalated war rhetoric against South Sudan on Wednesday, saying that Khartoum’s goal is to rid southerners of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Juba. Sudan and South Sudan have been fighting around disputed border area of Heglig since it was occupied by the southern army last week amid growing fears that the recently-separated countries are heading for all-out war. Addressing a mobilization rally organized by the youth sector of his ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum, Al-Bashir promised that the coming hours will bring “good news” from Sudanese forces fighting, as he said, on the outskirts of Heglig. He accused South Sudan’s ruling party, the SPLM, of seeking to execute what he termed as the agendas of world powers to oust the government in Khartoum before threatening to do it the other way around. “Either we end up occupying Juba or you end up occupying Khartoum but the boundaries of the old Sudan can no longer fit us together, only one of us has to remain standing” Bashir said. The Sudanese president said that liberating Heglig would be the first step towards achieving the main goal which, according to him, is to “completely annihilate” the SPLM, describing it as an insect that must be crushed. He further pledged to liberate South Sudan’s people from the SPLM and correct in the process what he described as their “mistake” of helping the SPLM to rule in Juba. “We have promised the south’s people to free them from the SPLM rule immediately and we bear a responsibility before the south’s citizens after we contributed to establishing the SPLM rule in the South” he said Al-Bashir vowed that Sudanese forces will teach South Sudan a lesson in ’Jihad’ and patriotism. He disclosed that he told the head of the AFrican Union (AU) mediation team Thabo Mbeki not to get too happy after the accord signed last month in Addis Ababa because the south’s leaders are "agents" being played by world powers. According to Bashir, the former South African president acknoweledged that he was right in a phone conversation that took place after the Heglig events. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/Bashir-vows-to-free-South-Sudan-s,42308 END3 4. Sudan, S.Sudan clash on new front as UN mulls sanctions Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:09am GMT * Border clashes worst since South Sudan seceded * Prolonged fighting would damage fragile economies * Rebels in Sudan's Darfur region also report attack By Alexander Dziadosz and Khalid Abdelaziz KHARTOUM, April 18 (Reuters) - Sudan and South Sudan accused each other of launching attacks on a new front near their contested border, stoking fears of a return to all-out war in the oil-producing region. The reports of the fresh fighting south of the Sudanese town of Mairem late on Tuesday came as the U.N. Security Council discussed imposing sanctions on the African neighbours if they did not stop the escalating border clashes. There has been growing alarm over the worst violence seen since South Sudan split away from Sudan as an independent country in July under the terms of a 2005 peace settlement. South Sudan seized the contested oil-producing Heglig region last week, prompting Sudan's parliament to brand its former civil war foe an "enemy" on Monday and to call for a swift recapture of the flat savanna region. Both countries are highly dependent on oil. Any protracted fighting would severely damage their economies and disrupt the surrounding region. Distrust runs deep between the neighbours, who are at loggerheads over the position of their border, how much the landlocked South should pay to transport its oil through Sudan and the division of national debt, among other issues. ACCUSATIONS Sudan said it had repulsed an attack on Tuesday by South Sudan's armed forces (SPLA) near the Bahr al-Arab river, known as the Kiir River in the south. "Limited forces from the SPLA carried out an attack on the area to divert the efforts of the armed forces working to liberate the Heglig region," the state-linked Sudanese Media Centre quoted a local military official as saying. The report said the fighting took place 62 km (39 miles) south of Mairem which, maps show, is on the boundary between the Sudanese regions of South Kordofan and Darfur, the scene of a separate insurgency against the Khartoum government. South Sudan's military spokesman Philip Aguer confirmed the clashes took place, but said the SPLA had not tried to enter Sudan's territory. The fighting broke out after southern troops were shelled while trying to collect water, he said. "They reacted, and fighting erupted between them," Aguer said. "Our forces crossed the river, crossed the bridge briefly, but the command recalled them back." In a sign rebel groups in Sudan may be trying to take advantage of the tensions, insurgents based in Darfur said late on Tuesday they had destroyed a Sudanese military base and take control of a town. The reports from a faction of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) loyal to Minni Minnawi - one of the three most prominent rebel groups in the region - could not be independently verified, and Sudan's army spokesman was not immediately available to comment. The 15-nation Security Council on Tuesday reiterated its call for Sudan to stop air strikes and South Sudan to withdraw from Heglig. "Council members discussed ways to leverage the influence of the council to press the parties to take these steps, and included in that a discussion potentially of sanctions," U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice told reporters. Rice, who is the Security Council president for April, gave no further details on possible sanctions that could be imposed. On another diplomatic front, South Sudan's President Salva Kiir is due to make a state visit to China - a major investor in both Sudan and South Sudan - before the end of the month. South Sudan's Information Minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin said Kiir would discuss "strengthening bilateral relations - political, economic, everything" and that the Heglig crisis would also be on the table. "I think they (China) have influence, and so their role is important," he said. South Sudan has accused Sudan of launching air strikes on some of its major oilfields. Sudan has denied launching air strikes but said its ground forces had attacked southern artillery positions that had fired on the north. South Sudan seceded from Sudan in July, six months after a referendum agreed under a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of civil war that killed more than 2 million people. (Additional reporting by Michelle Nichols at the United Nations; Editing by Andrew Heavens) http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL6E8FI3Q820120418?sp=true END4 5. Sudan's President Threatens to Overthrow South Sudan By Salma El Wardany and Jared Ferrie - Apr 19, 2012 12:59 AM GMT+0300 Sudanese President Umar al-Bashir vowed today to overthrow the South Sudan government, as the south pledged to defend itself and called for a return to negotiations. “Our main target from today is to liberate South Sudan’s citizens from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement,” al- Bashir said in a speech aired on Sudan TV. “This is our responsibility before our brothers in South Sudan,” he said. South Sudan’s deputy information minister, Atem Yaak Atem, said the Khartoum government has been launching ground and air attacks against his country since it declared independence July 9, and accused Sudan of trying to overthrow his government by supporting militia groups. “We don’t see any reason for full-scale war as long as there is room for negotiation,” he said today by phone from Juba, the South Sudanese capital. “We have been telling them we are ready for negotiation.” South Sudan seceded from the north following a 2005 peace deal that ended two decades of war. It assumed control over about three-quarters of the formerly unified nation’s daily oil output of 490,000 barrels. Most of the crude is pumped by the China National Petroleum Corp.,Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Bhd. and India’s ONGC Videsh Ltd. Sudan said today it’s calling on the UN Security Council to end South Sudan’s week-long occupation of the oil-rich Heglig region. South Sudan’s army seized the region, which both countries claim, on April 10 after a series of border clashes, prompting Sudan to withdraw from African Union-led negotiations and to mobilize its army. “The story began in Heglig, but will end in Khartoum or Juba,” al-Bashir said. “There are two choices: Either we end up in Juba or they end up in Khartoum. The old borders cannot take us both.” While the south would defend itself, Atem said his government has “no plan to attack or occupy anybody’s territory.” END5 6. UN Urged To Listen To Heglig’s History: Government The South Sudanese government yesterday responded to the United Nations’ proposed sanctions on her if it did not withdraw her troops from the contested oil rich region of Heglig. By Waakhe Simon Wudu JUBA, 19th April 2012 [Gurtong] The UN yesterday morning has threatened to impose sanctions on Sudan and South Sudan if they did not cease from current hostilities that are now worsening humanitarian situation in the two countries. Despite South Sudan’s position to withdraw from Heglig, the United Nations needs to listen to the history of the militarily ceased region from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) last week, the government’s Spokesperson Dr. Barnaba Marial said. "Well, it is a very unfortunate sort of proposed decision. I think the best thing is to get informed why Heglig has now become a "hot spot" that can even lead to imposition of sanctions,” Dr. Marial told the media in Juba. “I think it is good that the Security Council first listens to the story of Heglig, and I think they have not listened adequately from our point of view. We would be glad to tell them about the story of Heglig which is Panthou that it is part of South Sudan," Marial said. Prior to the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) take-over of Heglig, tensions between the two nations are now high as they resorted to war of statements with Khartoum branding South Sudan government her “enemy”. Meanwhile South Sudan reiterated her commitment for diplomatic talks with Khartoum, on Monday Marial stated six conditions the international community should take into consideration before her withdrawal from Heglig. “The issue of withdrawal on the government side is not an issue. It is an indication we are moving towards peace. But certain conditions must be met,” Marial said. He pointed six conditions that were already sent to the international community; the United Nations and the African Union, (AU) he said. 1. There must be immediate cessation of hostilities along the border areas. 2. There must be immediate demarcation of the agreed upon border areas. 3. There must be immediate demilitarization in all the contested areas and deployment of international monitors. 4. There must be immediate end to the continuing of exploitation of natural resources in the disputed areas. 5. In reference to the disputed areas we would like to prefer the international court of arbitration because if we can not agree in the AU we can go for international court of arbitration in The Hague so that it's decided upon, and 6. There must be immediate withdrawal of Sudan Armed Forces from Abyei Last Tuesday, the SPLA recaptured Heglig after repulsing the Sudan Armed Forces from the region. The International Community has so far condemned the move, calling the military occupation “illegal” and South Sudan to immediately withdraw her forces from the area. However, South Sudan has insisted with President Salva Kiir last week warning unless the international community intervenes with equal justice on the two countries; SPLA will not withdraw and will head up to Abyei also a disputed region. Dr. Marial has of latest reiterated that; “our statement is very clear. The government of the RSS is committed to the viability of two states….we would like to make this clear. The RSS is fully committed to negotiations and does not wish to engage in military confrontation. We are still on defensive.” Analysts have however expressed critical economic challenges if UN meant to impose the sanction on the infant nation with one of the highest maternal, child mortality rate and illiterate population in the world. http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial/tabid/124/ctl/ArticleView/mid/519/articleId/6828/UN-Urged-To-Listen-To-Hegligs-History-Government.aspx END6 7. Sudanese conflict may hinge on which economy falters first April 18 2012 at 05:00am iol Business Report The outcome of the dramatically escalating border fighting between Sudan and South Sudan is more likely to be determined by which of the two faltering economies collapses first than by relative military prowess. South Sudan, which seceded from Sudan in July last year, seized the disputed Heglig oilfield last week, edging the two former civil war foes closer to full-blown conflict than any time since the South gained independence. But rather than sparking an all-out military confrontation, each side’s aim may now be to target one another’s oil facilities and wait for their opponent to crumble under armed insurgencies, popular unrest and fuel shortages. “It is a question of which side can maintain the basic governance and military structures longer,” a Sudan expert with government contacts said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The two countries have already driven their economies to the brink of implosion since South Sudan split away, cleaving the vital oil industry in two. Squabbling over oil payments and border fighting has withered combined crude output – previously the main source of foreign currency and state revenues for both countries – from around 500 000 barrels a day before partition to just over a tenth of that. Food prices are soaring on both sides of the border and their currencies are reeling as officials scramble to make up for the sudden loss of revenues in countries that were already reeling from years of war, mismanagement and US trade sanctions. But despite their weaknesses, both sides have consistently reckoned they have the upper hand on their foe, partly explaining why fighting has escalated despite the obvious fact that neither side can actually afford to fight a war. “Khartoum is fighting for its survival,” said Peter Bashir Gbandi, a deputy for the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in South Sudan’s national assembly, during an emotional Juba panel debate packed with bellicose comments and broadcast live on radio. “Khartoum is economically khallas, collapsing,” he said, using the Arabic word for “finished”. Uprisings With popular uprisings convulsing the Middle East, many in South Sudan have predicted Sudan’s President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, in power since a 1989 coup, will soon meet the same fate as leaders in neighbouring Egypt and Libya. If the South can hold out a few months longer, the reasoning goes, Sudan’s people will surely overthrow their government and replace it with a regime more receptive to Juba’s demands. Khartoum, on the other hand, sees a good chance South Sudan – already hit by domestic rebellions, horribly violent cattle raiding and widespread poverty – will soon run out of money and descend into ungovernable chaos. The result is what Harry Verhoeven, a University of Oxford researcher who has studied Sudan extensively, calls a “war of attrition”, in which both sides wait for the other to crumble internally or run out of the funds and fuel needed to wage war. With its MiG and Antonov planes, Sudan still has a huge advantage in terms of air power, which even South Sudan’s military spokesman admits Juba’s forces can do little but “take precautions” against. But even before Heglig fell, Sudan was fighting insurgencies on three fronts – the western Darfur region and the South Kordofan and Blue Nile border states – and South Sudan may be betting Khartoum cannot afford to stretch the military further. “As we speak now there are demonstrations in Khartoum. You cannot fight, you cannot open another front in southern Sudan if you already have four fronts to fight,” SPLM deputy Gbandi said. That may explain why South Sudan’s rulers have been unrepentant about the occupation of Heglig, even under pressure from the US and other global powers. In a speech to parliament last week, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir chided UN chief Ban Ki-moon for asking him to withdraw his troops. “I told him you don’t need to order me because I am not under your command. I am a head of a state.“ Fuel prices Juba’s defiance was probably a sign it believed it could catalyse regime change in Sudan, Verhoeven said. “If Khartoum falls, of course, the SPLM thinks we’re looking at a very different game and everyone will forget their gamble.” And yet many in Khartoum’s ruling National Congress Party are likely to take a similar view of the South, despite the shock of losing Heglig. Officials often contrast Sudan’s diverse economy with that of South Sudan, which depended on oil for 98 percent of state income. “If there will be war after the loss of oil it will be a war of attrition. But it will be a war of attrition hitting them before us,” President al-Bashir told state television a few days after the South’s oil shutdown. Sabir Hassan, a former central bank governor who co-chairs Khartoum’s economic negotiations team, insists the country is still better off than its southern neighbour despite the chance it will have to import more fuel now. “In the south there is no economy as such. It is a salary-based economy,” he said. “Experience has shown that our economy has some resilience when it comes to facing such crises. We have had crises which were very similar to this before.” Some foreign experts and advisers estimate that South Sudan may struggle to pay for imports and support its currency within a couple of months without outside help, as assessment officials in Khartoum are certainly aware. Oil shutdowns The loss of Heglig knocked out about half of Sudan’s 115 000 barrel-a-day oil output. Landlocked South Sudan shut down its own roughly 350 000 barrels a day in January in a row over how much it should pay to export crude via Sudan. And while friendly governments could offer some financial support to avert economic disaster in either country, both may struggle to secure enough loans to see them through the crisis, especially while the threat of war looms. A flashpoint for both countries is fuel prices – a red line for unrest in many poor countries this year, such as Nigeria. Sudan and South Sudan have seen long queues as motorists tried to stock up on petrol in the past week. Four filling stations in Juba visited at the weekend had run out of fuel. In Khartoum, rumours have spread that the government may have to cut fuel subsidies after losing Heglig, despite official assurances that the state has enough reserves to handle the crisis. Food prices are another worry. The loss of foreign currency from oil revenues has driven up the cost of imports, especially in South Sudan, where staples like rice and tomatoes are trucked in at a premium from Kenya and Uganda. Any halt or delay in state salaries could also make it harder for either side to keep its government functioning. In Bor, the capital of South Sudan’s Jonglei state, a government worker this month said his ministry’s budget for cleaning, water and other services had already been halved under government austerity measures. “When it touches salaries, this is where the problem comes in,” he said. There are similar risks in Sudan. One Sudanese economic expert with political ties estimates that three quarters of the budget goes to Sudan’s military, security forces and high-level officials. If true, that does not leave much room to trim spending without hitting sensitive areas. “The government is unable to get us out of this miserable situation,” the expert said. But he said a bloody political transition could lead to a “Somalia situation”, and fear of chaos like that affecting the failed state could deter many Sudanese from rising up. – Reuters http://www.iol.co.za/business/business-news/sudanese-conflict-may-hinge-on-which-economy-falters-first-1.1278311 END7 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 82 050 1235 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. 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