---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Sat, Jun 23, 2012 at 7:05 PM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Sudan inches closer towards an Arab Spring To: Group <[email protected]>
1. Sudan inches closer towards an Arab Spring on Friday June 22, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – The protest movement that began in Sudan six days ago has gained momentum on Friday with serious demonstrations taking place throughout the day in various parts of the capital Khartoum as well as in other key towns. Sudanese activists posted dozens of pictures and video footages online showing clashes between protestors and police using tear gas in the streets of Khartoum, the capital of Al-Jazzera State, Madani, and Al-Obayid town in north Kordofan State. The protests started following Friday prayer in what anti-government activists online termed the “Friday of the Kataha [a Sudanese word for sandstorm]” as part of the “Sudan Revolts” campaign which began on Sunday, 17 June, with demonstrations mainly led by students against rising costs of living. The demonstrations erupted after the government moved to implement harsh austerity measures including termination of fuel subsidies. The move has stoked public discontent over economic conditions which have been worsening since the country lost three quarters of its oil production with the secession of South Sudan in July last year. Anti-government activists blame the situation on the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) which they accuse of a long list of failures including widespread corruption, misguided economic policies and warmongering. Eye witnesses told Sudan Tribune that several parts of Khartoum on Friday witnessed confrontations between police and security forces on one side and hundreds of protesters chanting slogans calling for the downfall of the regime. Police and security forces fired heavy tear gas to disperse the protesters and conducted wide arrests among them. At least 16 protesters have been arrested, activists told Sudan Tribune. The most serious zone of demonstration was in Al-Daim area in Khartoum, where protestors managed to occupy main streets and burn two police trucks, according to activists. Meanwhile, Sudan’s official news agency (SUNA) reported that the police had managed to contain “limited protests” in the capital Khartoum. SUNA quoted a police statement as saying that a number of citizens “not exceeding 150” had attacked a police patrol which prompted the latter to fire teargas. The statement added that no causalities were reported. "The situation is under control and the police did not use any fire arms or rubber bullets as has been reported by a number of TV stations," the statement added. Similarly, the NCP has downplayed the protest movement saying it is led by “some university students.” NCP’s spokesman Badr Al-Din Ahmad Ibrahim told the Sudanese Media Center (SMC), a pro-government news website, that the fact that “some university students” took to the streets is of “little significance” He further accused opposition political parties of standing behind the student protests. Sudan has hitherto escaped the contagion of popular protests that swept the Middle East and came to be known as the Arab Spring. But according to many witnesses, Friday’s protests were perhaps the most serious in the nation’s history since NCP took power 23 years ago. The US Department of State this week expressed deep concern over Sudan’s crackdown on demonstration, urging Khartoum “to respect the right of its citizens to freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly in order to raise their grievances” Amnesty International, a London-based Human Rights group, also called on Sudan to “end ruthless crackdown on protests” (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-inches-closer-towards-an,43015 END1 2. Sudanese protest over cuts amid security crackdown Sat Jun 23, 2012 1:26pm GMT * Protests fuelled by unpopular spending cuts * Sudan facing severe economic crisis * Smell of teargas hangs in air KHARTOUM, June 23 (Reuters) - Hundreds of Sudanese joined anti-government demonstrations in Khartoum on Saturday, witnesses and activists said, pushing protests against tough spending cuts into a second week despite a security crackdown. Fuelled by unpopular austerity measures, demonstrations spread throughout the capital a day earlier and expanded beyond the core of student activists who have dominated it so far. Activists have sought to use anger over a worsening economic crisis to spark an "Arab Spring"-style uprising against the government of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir. Security forces have responded by using teargas and batons to break up the demonstrations, which have broken out in a variety of Khartoum's neighbourhoods but have not exceeded more than a few hundred people at any one time. On Saturday, the smell of teargas hung in the air and smoke rose from burning tyres amid a heavy security presence in the neighbourhood of Al-Daim, which had also been the site of protests a day earlier. A Reuters correspondent saw around 300 to 400 demonstrators, but it was difficult to get a precise count because the protesters were dispersed in small groups throughout different streets. Activists also reported that protests broke out in at least four other neighbourhoods of Khartoum on Saturday, but it was not immediately possible to verify the reports independently. The police were not immediately available to comment. In a rare acknowledgement of the protests on Friday, the police said they had dispersed "limited" demonstrations that did not exceed 150 people. Sudan avoided the wave of unrest that toppled strongmen in neighbouring Egypt and Libya last year, but tough spending cuts announced this week unleashed a spate of demonstrations. The measures are aimed at coping with an economic crisis rooted largely in the secession of South Sudan a year ago. The new nation took about three-quarters of the country's oil output - previously Sudan's dominant source of state revenues, exports and hard currency. That left Sudan with a budget deficit of about $2.4 billion, a weakening currency and high inflation for food and other goods, many of which are imported. The two countries were supposed to work out a deal whereby the landlocked South would pay Sudan fees to export crude via pipelines and other facilities on its territory, but they have so far failed to reach an agreement. South Sudan shut down its crude output in January after Khartoum started taking some oil. African Union-brokered talks in Addis Ababa have yet to produce a deal. (Writing by Alexander Dziadosz; Editing by Alison Williams) http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E8HN0SY20120623?sp=true END2 3. Sudan at the Tipping Point: Protests in Khartoum May Portend Regime Change Eric Reeves June 21, 2012 Sudan is in the chaotic throes of what may well be the final act of the National Islamic Front/National Congress Party regime, which next week will have been in power for 23 years. An "Arab Spring" environment, which seemed improbable a year ago, has been created by a confluence of developments—and even the formidable security and military forces of the regime may soon be put to a final test by deeply unhappy Sudanese civilians. At the same time, there is evidence of considerable bitterness within the officer corps over renewed military confrontation with now independent South Sudan; there is also intense dismay within the ranks over the mauling the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) have endured in fighting against the forces of the Sudan People's Liberation Army-North in the Nuba Mountains. The army may no longer be the bulwark that it has been for the regime in the past. But ultimately, as has been the case in the past in Sudan, it is an imploding economy that has galvanized an increasingly broad spectrum of resistance. The now daily protests and demonstrations in and around Khartoum are the most conspicuous evidence. There is also a fierce crackdown on news reporting and a growing confiscation of newspapers. And for good reason: in the regime's mind there is much grim news to suppress—about the economy and about public disaffection with the aging kleptocrats who have created this mess. Despite this predictably brutal repression, economic realities in Sudan are bearing down on a country with the same demographics as other "Arab Spring" countries, including very large populations under 30, with no employment or even prospects for finding meaningful jobs. Trouble began when South Sudan achieved independence on July 9, 2011, despite a range of military and other provocations by Khartoum. Taking 75 percent of the region's oil reserves with it, the South refused to capitulate before Khartoum's extortionate demand for a $36/barrel transit fee for Southern crude moving north to Port Sudan; with talks at an impasse, Juba shut down all Southern oil production in January 2012. Khartoum's brinksmanship had failed, and this proved the final catalyst for accelerating economic collapse. Inflation is now over 30 percent (some economists believe the figure may be over 40 percent), and a paralyzing hyper-inflation may be impending. The IMF expects the northern Sudanese economy to contract by a staggering 7 percent this year; there are almost no foreign exchange reserves, making international trade and imports increasingly difficult and in many cases impossible. The Sudanese pound continues its precipitous decline, despite the regime's repeated claims to have recently received a large infusion of hard currency from another country (no particulars were provided). The current black market currency exchange rates suggest no one believes the cash infusion actually occurred. And looming over all of this is the gargantuan external debt burden Khartoum has incurred over many years, now approaching $40 billion—a figure so large that the current economy cannot possibly generate sufficient income to service, let alone repay, such debt. Unsurprisingly after the loss of virtually all oil revenues, the regime confronts huge budget gaps. These have led to cuts in subsidies for two of the most valued consumer items: fuel and sugar (from which many northern Sudanese receive a significant portion of their daily calorie intake). The cutting of the fuel subsidy could be especially damaging politically: "The Union of Sudanese Businessmen has urged the authorities to seek out alternative austerity measures as opposed to their 'catastrophic' intention of lifting fuel subsidies, warning that the move will put the government at risk." (Sudan Tribune, June 4, 2012) (emphasis added) The regime's claimed cuts in its party bureaucracy and government staff don't begin to address the present budget problems—or other economic issues that have been festering for years: gross mismanagement of the agricultural sector; profligate military purchases; non-transparent accounting; and extraordinary levels of self-enrichment. The consequences are increasingly conspicuous: even long-time economic ally China withdrew funding for a massive agricultural project in March when it became clear that Khartoum could not provide the crude oil collateral that Beijing required. Moreover, waging war is expensive and Khartoum's SAF is actively engaged in Darfur, Blue Nile, South Kordofan, and along the North/South border. Even the marked increase in use of militia forces is not sufficient to diminish these costs significantly. This aggressive military posture appears unlikely to change, since some of the most powerful and irrationally hawkish members of the regime seem determined to prevail militarily rather than engage in negotiations. Not only does this obduracy deeply endanger as many as 2 million civilians in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, as well as refugees in South Sudan, but makes international economic rescue politically impossible, as it should. Protests were inevitable, and this past week they have been growing in size and intensity. Two prominent foreign journalists have been arrested, an increasing number of newspapers have been confiscated, and journalists face a ferocious crackdown; the regime clearly fears that the message of the protesters will gain prominence going forward. And that message is clear, as Middle East Online reported yesterday: "Groups of students gathered in streets around the University of Khartoum, located next to the Blue Nile river in the city centre, shouting slogans such as 'Khartoum, rise up! rise up!' and 'The people want to change the regime!'" (June 20, 2012) Regime change won't come easily. The National Islamic Front/National Congress Party has been ruthlessly effective in creating security services tasked only with keeping these cynical men in power; the likelihood is very high that as protestors gain momentum, they will be met with brutality comparable to that in Syria. Men who came to power by military coup and are guilty of genocide will not hesitate in using whatever means are necessary to suppress democratic aspirations. But many Sudanese—after 23 years—have a sense that there is nothing more to lose. The moribund and self-serving sectarian parties—Umma and the DUP—are no longer the source of political opposition, and are widely perceived as irrelevant to democratic reform in Sudan. And for the marginalized people of eastern Sudan, Darfur, Nubia, Blue Nile, the Nuba Mountains, regime change can't come quickly enough. It will be bloody, very bloody—but the demise of the National Islamic Front/National Congress Party may be near. Those in Sudan aspiring to freedom and national democratic transformation deserve international recognition as well as strong and steady support. [Eric Reeves, a professor at Smith College, has published extensively on Sudan, nationally and internationally, for more than a decade. He is author of A Long Day's Dying: Critical Moments in the Darfur Genocide.] END3 4. Anti-government protests spread across Khartoum Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:54pm GMT * Anger rising over economic crisis * Police say contained "limited" protests * Protesters call for police to join them - witnesses By Alexander Dziadosz KHARTOUM, June 22 (Reuters) - Anti-government protests erupted across Khartoum where Sudanese took to the streets after Friday prayers in the most widespread demonstrations yet against spending cuts unveiled this week. The demonstrations, now in their sixth day, expanded beyond the core of student activists and spread into several neighbourhoods of the capital that had so far been quiet. Activists have been trying to use public frustration to build a movement to topple the government of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir. The smell of teargas hung in the air and broken rocks covered streets as riot police and demonstrators faced off throughout the city, witnesses said. Demonstrators burned tyres and security forces used batons to disperse them. Large demonstrations have been relatively rare in Sudan, which avoided the "Arab Spring" protest movements in Egypt and Libya. Security forces usually quickly disperse protests. Spending cuts and food prices have been the main impetus for the protests, but activists say they also share a wider set of complaints with Arab Spring protesters including corruption, police impunity and restrictions on media and other freedoms. The government, already fighting armed insurgencies in its western Darfur region and in two southern border states, has played down the protests. The potency of street demonstrations runs deep in public consciousness in Sudan, where popular protests toppled military rulers in 1964 and 1985, uprisings known as the October and April Revolutions. The country has faced soaring inflation since South Sudan seceded a year ago - taking with it about three quarters of the country's oil production. Protesters raced back and forth down dirt roads as police pursued them in large blue trucks and on foot, Reuters television footage showed. Numbers were hard to verify as pockets of hundreds of protesters swirled and dispersed in the capital, but may have totalled in the thousands throughout the day. About 400 to 500 protesters chanted "the people want to overthrow the regime" as they left the Imam Abdel Rahman mosque in the suburb of Omdurman, activists and two witnesses said. As security forces gathered, the protesters called for the police to join them, chanting: "Oh police, oh police, how much is your salary and how much is a pound of sugar?" The police fired teargas and then used batons as they clashed with the protesters, who threw rocks back at them. Witnesses said men in civilian clothes also attacked the demonstrators. In a rare acknowledgement of the protests, police said they had contained "limited" demonstrations in Khartoum which did not exceed 150 people. The protesters "damaged one of the police cars which compelled the police to use teargas to disperse the demonstrators without any injuries occurring among the citizens or the police," they said in a statement. BROADER BASE The protests have gone almost entirely unmentioned in Sudanese media. Several local television channels broadcast musical concerts on Friday evening. Unlike previous days, when the demonstrations were led largely by students, the protesters on Friday appeared to encompass a broader segment of the capital's population. At one protest in Omdurman, about 100 people chanted "Freedom, freedom" until police fired teargas to disperse them. Police also fired teargas to break up separate protests of a similar size in the central neighbourhoods of Burri, Khartoum Three and Al-Daim, which had previously been quiet, witnesses said. Demonstrations even touched the upscale Riyad and Amarat districts. Protests also broke out in the northern suburb of Bahri, which police dispersed with batons, activists and witnesses said. About 40 people joined one protest in the area, but stopped amid a heavy security presence, while around 100 people burned tyres at the other protest until police broke them up. Activists and witnesses said small protests also broke out in the cities of Wad Medani, Sennar and El Obeid. Activists posted images they said were of those demonstrations, but was not possible to independently verify them. Sudanese officials say they have little choice but to scale back fuel subsidies and take other measures to plug a budget deficit the finance minister has put at about $2.4 billion. The country had been supposed to continue collecting some revenues from South Sudan's oil because the landlocked new nation has to export its crude through the north. But the two failed to set a price, and South Sudan shut down its production in January after Khartoum started confiscating some oil. African Union-brokered talks in Addis Ababa have so far failed to yield a settlement. Both economies were already reeling from decades of conflict, U.S. trade sanctions and mismanagement. (Editing by Diana Abdallah) http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E8HM86720120622?sp=true END4 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 82 050 1235 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. 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