---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Fri, Nov 9, 2012 at 7:19 PM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] South Sudanese Dissident Militias To: Group <[email protected]>
Southern Dissident Militias (08 November 2012) Covering the status of armed militia activities in Jonglei and the North-South border areas, and the reemergence of David Yau Yau. For questions, comments on content, or feedback, contact: Jonah Leff HSBA Project Coordinator Small Arms Survey [email protected] Southern Dissident Militias Since South Sudan’s independence, the scale and severity of anti-government militia activity has been limited compared with the period between the April 2010 elections—when electoral losses motivated a number of rebellions—and the lead-up to independence in July 2011. Dissident forces continue to exist, but have largely operated from Sudan, making occasional incursions into Unity and Upper Nile state. However, the return of militia leader David Yau Yau to Jonglei state poses a threat to the stability of the new country. The decline in militia activity is due in part to the integration of the forces of David Yau Yau, Peter Gadet, and Gabriel Tang-Ginye into the SPLA in August and October 2011; and the deaths of Gatluak Gai and George Athor in July and December 2011 respectively. Following Athor’s death, his South Sudan Democratic Movement/Army (SSDM/A) came under the leadership of Peter Kuol Chol Awan. In February 2012, Awan also returned to the SPLA. Core forces from the SSDM/A and those under the command of Gadet, Gai, and Tang-Ginye have undergone an integration process with the army. In April 2012, the SPLA announced that Yau Yau had again defected from the army. Greater Southern political cohesion in the last year may have also contributed to a reduction in rebel activity. Independence and the renewed threat posed by Sudan—in political and military clashes with Juba over the transport of oil and Heglig—has generated a sense of national solidarity that has temporarily overcome many divisions within South Sudan. But the ingredients for a resurgence of militia activity remain in place in South Sudan. The continued lack of space for political opposition means the use of violence remains one of the few ways to negotiate for political and economic improvements. The prevalence of cattle-raiding, the need for community self-defense measures in the absence of government-provided security, and the political and tribal fractures that exist in the government and military, are all internal factors that create a conducive environment for militias. There is increasing overlap between dissident militias and the activities of tribal militias. For example, the forces of Yau Yau, a Murle civilian, re-launched a campaign in Pibor county in August 2012, capitalizing on the Murles’ heightened resentment over the SPLA’s repressive disarmament process there. Yau Yau is thought to have mobilized between 3,000 and 4,000 youths, though the exact relationship between the youths and the militia group is unclear. Yau Yau and his fighters may serve simply as conduits for arms and ammunition without having the youths’ actual allegiance. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the group includes non-Murle, as well. Despite difficult rainy season conditions, fighting between Yau Yau’s forces and the SPLA has resulted in significant losses for the SPLA. Early victories for the militia—including an attack on the SPLA near Likuangole that resulted in about 150 SPLA deaths—were followed by SPLA successes in October 2012. Further clashes between Yau Yau’s forces and the SPLA took place in Likuangole during the first days of November. The government’s next moves will be important determining factors in the future of Yau Yau’s rebellion. If the military response indiscriminately targets the Murle community, local support for Yau Yau will likely grow. As of October 2012, Murle leaders were making a concerted effort to convince their communities to resist recruitment by Yau Yau. According to the SPLA, the army will stay in defensive positions to allow these efforts to show success, after which they will open communications with Yau Yau. However, Yau Yau’s threat forced the SPLA to suspend its civilian disarmament campaign in Pibor county at the end of October to focus on hunting down Yau Yau sympathizers. Other militia groups remain sources of concern for the South Sudan government but have been largely quiet in the last six months. Following Gadet’s integration, James Gai Yoach assumed leadership of the South Sudan Liberation Army (SSLA). The stated goal of the SSLA remains the overthrow of the government in Juba, on the grounds that the regime is corrupt and will not allow political dissent. This predominantly Nuer militia group is thought to have between 1,200 and 3,000 fighters. The SSLA currently operates out of the borderlands north of Unity state in South Kordofan. Offensives in November 2011 in Mayom county, which left a reported 70 dead, and in April 2012 in areas close to Unity state, were the largest SSLA attacks in the past year. The latter engagements were conducted concurrent with fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the SPLA in and around the Heglig area. Militia leaders Johnson Olonyi and Alyuak Ogot, both Shilluks and whose spheres of operation and influence reside in the Shilluk areas along the western bank of the Nile River in Upper Nile state, have made occasional incursions from locations across the border in South Kordofan. Olonyi commands an estimated 700-800 men. Divisions among the SSLA and Olonyi’s forces have recently surfaced. In early August, internal discussions reportedly led to fighting between Yoach and deputy Kolchara Nyang on one side and Bapiny Monytuil and Matthew Pul Jang on the other. The fighting resulted in Nyang’s death. The reasons for the splintering remain unclear. In October 2012, security forces raided Yoach’s house in Khartoum and arrested him and his bodyguards as a gesture of Sudan’s intention to implement a series of agreements signed with the Southern government in September 2012. Yoach’s influence within the SSLA may already have been on the decline following the internal schism in August. According to the SSLA, Monytuil has assumed leadership. Divisions between Olonyi and Ogot have also been reported, but where they fall in the SSLA divide is unclear. The SSLA and Olonyi forces are reportedly based at ‘Kilo 23,’ a base between Heglig and Kharasana where the groups have undergone training. Khartoum has reportedly used these forces in its counter-insurgency against the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North in South Kordofan. Despite Gadet’s integration in August 2011, he remains a volatile figure due to his record of repeated defections. With the death of Paulino Matiep, the Bul Nuer former commander of the civil war-era South Sudan Defense Forces (SSDF), Gadet may step into the late Matiep’s role as the leader of the largest spoiler element within the SPLA. The role of former SSDF commander Gordon Kong going forward also remains in question. In May 2012, 250 of his men under the command of John Duit defected to the SPLA. Updated 8 November 2012 More details online at: http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures/south-sudan/armed-groups/southern-dissident-militias.html END ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 82 050 1235 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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