---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Wed, Jan 30, 2013 at 8:36 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] USA to increase use of drones in Africa To: Group <[email protected]>
1. US signs deal with Niger to operate military drones in west African state Mali Islamists' war reveals paucity of west's intelligence on Sahel and Sahara but Pentagon's move could backfire, analysts warn Paul Harris in New York and Afua Hirsch in Accra guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 29 January 2013 19.26 GMT The US government appears close to opening a new front in its fight against Islamist militants by planning a new base for surveillance drones in the west African country of Niger. American forces are already assisting a French offensive in neighbouring Mali that is aimed at recapturing the country's northern desert territory from the hands of Islamist rebels. On Monday the US signed a military agreement with Niger that paves the way legally for US forces to operate on its soil, prompting a series of reports that the Pentagon was keen on opening a new drones base there. That news appeared to be confirmed by Niger government sources, who said the US ambassador in Niamey, Bisa Williams, had asked Niger's president, Mahamadou Issoufou, for permission to use surveillance drones and had been granted it. "Niger has given the green light to accepting American surveillance drones on its soil to improve the collection of intelligence on Islamist movements," a Niger government source told Reuters. In Washington a diplomatic source told the Guardian that the recently signed deal, known as a "status of forces" agreement, was very broad. "There are no constraints to military-to-military co-operation within the agreement," the source said. The deal with Niger had been under negotiation for some time but had got a sudden burst of urgency after the dramatic events following the French intervention in Mali. Though French-led forces have swept militants from key cities in northern Mali, the conflict has focused diplomatic efforts on the security threat posed by Islamist groups in the vast wilderness of the Sahel and Sahara. It is believed that the US only currently desires surveillance drones to be deployed to Niger though the agreement could pave the way for more aggressive armed drones in the future. A spokesman for the Pentagon did not return requests for clarification by email and telephone. The move would be the latest in a gradual expansion of American surveillance drones in Africa, which have so far been operated from Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. It would represent an acknowledgement that the north and west African regions are becoming a key battleground in the fight against Islamist groups. Aside from the conflict in Mali, Nigeria is plagued by violent Islamists extremists in its northern provinces and Algeria recently saw a high-profile and bloody attack on western workers at an oil industry facility. US military consultant Robert Caruso said that any base in Niger would probably be similar to the one already in Burkina Faso and use a variety of manned and unmanned craft to carry out spying and monitoring missions. Caruso said it would make up for a lack of human intelligence in the region. "The reason we are having to push so many drones to the Sahel is because we don't have any human intelligence in the region – either through friendly countries providing it, or through espionage," said Caruso. "We should have humans on the ground, but we don't. When it comes to Mali, US policymakers really don't know what's going on." However, the use of drones, even if just on surveillance missions, is controversial. American drone strikes have been used to deadly effect in countries such as Pakistan, Yemen, Afghanistan and Somalia but have caused outrage among civil liberties groups over the secrecy that surrounds their operation and the high incidence of civilian casualties. The London-based Bureau of Investigative Journalism has monitored American drone strikes all around the world and calculates that in Pakistan alone there have been some 362 strikes since 2004. They are estimated to have killed up to 3,461 suspected militants in the country and as many as 891 civilians. Due to the US's broad definition of "militant", many experts believe the number of dead civilians may be much higher. But despite the controversy, President Barack Obama has made the use of drones one of the centrepieces of his national security strategy, overseeing a huge increase in their deployment. If the use of drones in the Sahel did escalate beyond simple surveillance and into active strikes, some experts warn that the US risks a considerable backlash. "The use of drone strikes in the Sahel would become very problematic," said one senior diplomatic source, who did not want to be named. "There are already serious issues with identification of targets and reliability with drones elsewhere, even in Pakistan, where the CIA has a network of informants. But in north Africa they have no idea who they are dealing with whatsoever." The source added that there was a paucity of intelligence as to who exactly US forces would be targeting when it came to local Islamic groups. "The US has no one integrated into these organisations. Intelligence is extremely poor. "These groups and subgroups and splinter groups are capable of division at a moment's notice. You might know something about one group but you know nothing about the other. It is an extremely unstable situation," the source said. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/29/niger-approves-american-surveillance-drones END1 2. U.S. to Expand Role in Africa Military Pact With Niger Brings American Forces Closer to Conflict in Mali WSJ Updated January 29, 2013, 6:58 a.m. ET By ADAM ENTOUS and SIOBHAN GORMAN The U.S. signed an agreement Monday with the West African country of Niger that clears the way for a stepped-up American military presence on the edges of the conflict in neighboring Mali. The U.S. and France are moving to create an intelligence hub in Niger that could include a base, near Mali's border, for American drones that could monitor al Qaeda-linked militants in Mali's vast desert north, U.S. officials said. The Obama administration has agreed to provide air tankers to refuel French warplanes targeting rebels in Mali, sharply expanding the level of U.S. involvement in the campaign. WSJ Pentagon Correspondent Adam Entous reports. Photo: Getty Images. The moves show the extent to which the U.S. and France are girding for what could be an open-ended campaign against the militants in North and West Africa. U.S. and French officials said they see Niger as a logical hub for intelligence-collection operations nearby in Mali, where France has deployed warplanes and ground troops to drive Islamist militants from cities and towns they have held for months. War planners say small air strips in Niger could be used as launching pads for spy missions and strikes. The signing of the so-called status-of-forces agreement with Niger was a necessary precursor for American military operations there, officials said. U.S. officials said discussions with Niger on a drone base were at an early stage. The U.S. and Niger started negotiating the status of forces agreement last year to provide legal protections for American military personnel operating in the country. Talks took on added urgency after France launched its military mission in Mali on Jan. 11 against al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, or AQIM, and affiliated Islamist militants in northern Mali. The agreement is likely to be announced in Niamey, Niger's capital, on Tuesday, U.S. officials said. The agreement signed Monday with Niger is meant to expand cooperation "to counter shared threats in the region," a U.S. defense official said. U.S. officials said the agreement doesn't set out the precise number of American military personnel who would be based in Niger, nor does it prescribe what roles they will play. There are now fewer than 50 U.S. military personnel there. U.S. operations in Niger to aid the French military campaign would represent a significant escalation by the U.S. U.S. officials said new drone bases are needed near Mali to monitor militant activity because the U.S. doesn't have any in or near the new war zone. People in a crowd shouted at suspected Islamist extremists in the back of an army truck in Gao Tuesday Western war planners say small landing strips in Niger near the border with Mali are ideally located for missions using drones, manned surveillance aircraft and possibly U.S. special-operations units. That is because the airstrips in Niger are closer to militant havens in northern Mali than airstrips near Mali's capital, Bamako, in the south of the country. The Obama administration has been wary of getting pulled into a new conflict in Mali, but hasn't ruled out the use of armed drones or special-operations units to help target al Qaeda militants—if intelligence agencies conclude that they are plotting attacks against the U.S. homeland, U.S. officials said. The Wall Street Journal reported this month that the U.S. was ramping up intelligence collection efforts over Mali, and considering deploying unarmed drones and providing targeting information to the French. The New York Times reported on its website on Monday that the U.S. military command for Africa, known as Africom, was making preparations to establish a drone base in Niger or possibly another nearby country. Africom declined to discuss any plans for deploying drones—which are sometimes called "ISR," in military parlance—to Niger. "We don't discuss specific planning efforts, and in particular, we do not discuss specifics related to ISR, and intelligence matters," said Col. Tom Davis, a spokesman for the command. American military personnel in Niger would likely provide counterterrorism training to local forces and help the country with border security, in addition to helping gather intelligence on al Qaeda in Mali, officials said. Other countries in the region are also seen by U.S. officials as possible hosts for drone bases. U.S. and French officials are concerned about any spillover of the fighting into neighboring countries, including Algeria, which, at the urging of Paris, has moved forces to try to close its long desert border with Mali. French officials said the goal is to prevent fighters from crossing the border to escape advancing French and African forces. U.S. officials said they want to step up cooperation with the government in Algiers to fight AQIM and associated militant groups, as Algeria is one of the few capable governments in North Africa that fervently oppose Islamist militants. Current and former officials said the Central Intelligence Agency or the U.S. military may be able to reach a deal in which Algeria provides a drone base in exchange for equipment and training. The Algerians have been fighting Islamist militant groups since the 1990s, when they stepped up their effort to counter extremists with the help of the CIA. The agency forged a good relationship with its counterparts there and Algeria was able to tamp down the threat considerably. The Pentagon has small numbers of personnel and equipment scattered across Africa. The largest concentration is at Camp Lemonnier, a French-U.S. base in Djibouti, used to launch drone strikes in Yemen. The base is the headquarters for a task force of 2,000 Americans. In addition to the U.S. personnel now in Niger, about 100 were sent to the region last year to help in the hunt for the Lord's Resistance Army, a rebel militia in central Africa. Africom is based in Germany, and has personnel on the continent at regional African organizations, such as the African Union. The agreement with Niger, "would provide a U.S. foothold, a launching pad, in the region to try to stem the threat of Islamic extremism in the region," said Seth Jones, a former Pentagon adviser and an al Qaeda specialist at the Rand Corp. He said U.S. officials have a "very serious concern" that even if the French succeed in Mali, the Islamic extremist threat will continue to spread in the region in countries such as Mauritania, Nigeria and Niger. After a two-week legal and policy review, the White House agreed to provide three air tankers to refuel French warplanes over Mali. The U.S. also is providing cargo planes to transport French troops and equipment. The U.S. military has forged a relationship with its counterparts in Niger for a decade, dating to the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, Mr. Jones said. The Niger military staged a coup in 2010 after then-President Mamadou Tandja attempted to extend his term. The military junta scheduled a presidential election for 2011, returning power to civilian authorities and clearing the way for stepped-up U.S. military support. — Julian E. Barnes contributed to this article. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323644904578270374130708196.html?mod=WSJ_World_LEFTSecondNews END2 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 82 050 1235 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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