South Sudan Economy : need for political and economic measures - Article <http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article46119#tabs-1> - Comments (8) <http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article46119#tabs-2>
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Much of the real causes of these austerity measures maybe of high(est) speculations, but also not precluding extremely high level of corruption, mismanagement of natural resources (mainly oil revenue) and somewhat a seemingly a largely perceived very young and somewhat incompetent government of the Republic of South Sudan, the RSS. In this article, I share as a lay person’s my contributions and not on behalf of any entity in the RSS, I will, here, and at my own personal accord and opinion attempt to delve on major factors impacting on the economic hardship conditions being felt by many South Sudanese today. I will also highlight some concerns on oil and the strained relations between Juba and Khartoum being a direct factor in the current extremely deteriorating economy. It is worth noting that both neighbouring nations; the RSS and the Sudan have both been undergoing extreme economic hardships, perhaps resulting from the same factor; economically super heavy oil revenue-reliant, no oil forthcoming from the RSS and Khartoum’s ’dirty’ tricks resulting to subsequent economic tightening measures on both countries’ average populations. For the RSS, and as maybe known to many, by end 2011, under rather ’clouded’ circumstances, a dispute with the (North) Sudan, the RSS government was ’pushed’ in January 2012 to shut down the nation’s entire oil production. Until then, oil revenues totalling about $400 million per month, had represented 82 percent of South Sudan’s gross domestic product and 98 percent of RSS government revenues. At this juncture, it is worth noting, and very strongly so, I always held a personal and policy opinion, like many other ’sound-minded’ South Sudanese; ’oil must be used to propel other economic-generating revenues; e.g. agriculture, animal, fishery produces and other vast natural resources development which, the RSS is abundantly endowed with...’ as to the ’quick enrichment, faster spent and vanished into thin air oil revenue....only!’ Needless to add, oil is perishable and honestly, in the absence of a clear work-force and development plan, oil revenue alone can render people to become ’lazy’. So how have both these two fairly new neighbour countries been economically negatively affected since January 2012? In Jan 2012, I was approached by several foreign missions including government officials and oil companies alike who were shocked by the RSS government oil-shutdown Jan 2012 decision. These foreign entities, admittedly and arguably so, voiced concerns that the (RSS) revenues would fall drastically. They also added that our estimated ’GDP’ would also fall or may collapse. This was at the backdrop of a very brief and short-lived relative ’prosperity’ enjoyed in the RSS, which, prior to early 2012 was considered one of the world’s fastest ’growing economies’. In all my discussions with these foreign entities, I always and persistently stated, intermittently, the below concerns and facts. As be-known to many, when the RSS seceded from the former ’greater’ Sudan, the RSS took its oil which is rightfully in its jurisdictional national borders amounting to no less than 75% of Sudan’s oil production which was, no less than 70% of (North) Sudan’s national revenue too. It is worth noting here, though the oil as a natural resource is in the South (RSS), however, the export infrastructure, pipelines and the port are in the Sudan (north). I ascribe to the ’school of thought’ that the current economic stalemate could have been far more ’harmonious’ and peaceful and of course, of huge economic gains to both Nations; the RSS and the Sudan (North), if only and had Bashir’s government been adhering to its part of the bargains and not dilly-dallying over moving genuinely and swiftly toward greater cooperation agreements which, could have been reached amicably way before our Independence in 2011. Sadly and consequently, the economic bottle necks impacted on political issues whence both countries failed to settle a number of border issues and could not agree on tariffs or fees for use of oil pipelines into the Sudan. I also recall very vividly, to my utter shock and disbelief that in December 2011, the Sudan (North) unilaterally and in ’broad day-light’ robbery-like, diverted South Sudanese oil to its own refineries for illegal sale on international markets. South Sudan responded, obviously, by shutting down its wells. That said, we remain optimistic that the RSS government would unfold more viable economic way forward, with or without Khartoum. We earnestly yearn for an RSS government to initiate much broader-base politico-economic planning national concerned-groups consultations, related policies and programme and, of course, subsequent frameworks including e.g. diversification of other national resources (as briefly mentioned above) and infrastructure etc. Regional cooperation agreements and implementation frameworks e.g. the Lamu project, regional and international trade-development cooperation endevours. The RSS borders several African countries and each one is an outlet for the RSS, it is paramount this is looked at critically along people-people relations, security, trade and cooperation etc. However, as this may take a considerable amount of time and most definitely varied resources including expertise, I would like to add my voice and earnest appeal on RSS almost dire need for immediate economic bridging measures and argue for the RSS government. This is not because I work for the SPLM, the ruling Party, but as a citizen whose stomach is biting, like many more millions other South Sudanese country-wide. It is the average citizens who are suffering today in the RSS! Much this may sound awkward to some individuals, but I honestly feel a genuine sympathy for the RSS Minister of Finance, Hon. Kosti Manibe’s 2012 budget and his relentless related efforts which include, his projections, the government’s monthly expenditure to be $250 million (from or about $400 million) and its income to be $25 million (monthly). But by end 2012, the RSS government revenue had only reached $12.6 million monthly; half of Hon. Kosti’s shoe-string estimated income projection. By all means, September 2012 was a ’terrible’ month for the RSS. Not only our national revenue were at baby crawling pace as above, but as well and through an AU-mediated summit meeting in Addis Ababa in late September 2012, RSS President Cde. H. E. Salva Kiir Mayardit, signed several agreements with Omar al-Bashir, his (North) Sudanese counterpart. As part of the deal, President Cde. Mayardit agreed (perhaps reluctantly so...but for the sake of moving forward and ’something better than nothing’...) to pay a commercial tariff to pump South Sudanese oil through the Sudan (North). He also agreed to make several payments to the North, amounting to over $3 billion. Perhaps, in consideration of the Sudan’s (North) own fiscal crisis brought on by the loss of oil revenues following the RSS secession. This agreement created a lot of condemnation by the RSS public who felt already ’cheated’ by the (North) Sudan in its continued rip off the RSS oil. HOWEVER, just as happened, unfortunately, this may sound of a pessimism-like, Khartoum with its Bashir’s led government, and just as seen since its forceful ascend to power in 1989, has a long track record of always having something else up its sleeves! To-date; March 2013 we are yet to see crystal-like and promising signs that the September 2012 agreement will be followed by Khartoum. Are there any good prospects really? ONE MOST SINCERELY HOPES SO! I do not want to turn this article into a ’Khartoum-bashing’ one, rather for the sake of my persuasion effort here, I would like to add that the World community must hear the RSS government a little more compassionately this time round, more so with keen long-term economic vested interests too. Hear me out. Over the past one year, the RSS government in Juba has been appealing for international assistance, but donors have been too reluctant to fill the gap. The international community instead continues to propose austerity and more such measures, including across-the-board cuts of up to 26%. The RSS is perhaps, and especially Juba is one of the most expensive countries and cities in Africa. Slashing salaries and service debts is a sure ticket to institutionalized corruption; corruption will be at all levels not only at the top level. My grave concern ’are we creating an even more serious and chronic governance problem’ sure to be hardest to eradicate for such an infant country and government? FURTHERMORE, I would like to strongly urge and add my voice that the regional and the international community must exert real and serious political pressure on Khartoum to meet its obligations (this time) of the September 2012 agreement. However, the pace and methodology of what’s going on in Addis by the AU is pretty dismal to say the least. Much time and issues are being watered down and prolonged. On the other side, the RSS government on its turn has a lot to do in order to restore faith in it as a government, young as it is. ADMITTEDLY, I ’see’ why or what could be factors, among others, behind the donors’ reluctance to assist in filling the economic shortage. Our RSS government has an obligation to demonstrate to both its citizens its fight against corruption, ineptitude and to lay out convincing viable immediate-long-term econo-development plans including intrinsically sound economic governance and transparent fiscal systems. However, the RSS needs all the support that can be to sail through this hardship period as it has made considerable concessions so far. I will conclude with the one and most important not only eco-development but a plain piece of wisdom; our ONLY and most important viable option as a new Nation and in the long run is the diversification of our other national resources including the development of our agricultural land and water amongst others. We need to develop a far more coherent ’master’ politico-economic-legal development plan and framework. Whilst we must ensure to attract small-medium and large scale investors, we paramountly must ensure to safe guard and protect our people’s interest, habitat, national resources for now and future generations. *Suzanne Jambo is a South Sudanese lawyer, communities & human rights activist and is the current SPLM Secretary for External Relations and can be reached via email: [email protected]* -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "South Sudan Info - The Kob" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
