Political months Ahead: How Kiir manoeuvred his deputy and
neutralised his venom
President kiir (right) with VP Machar (left). Photo: AP
By: Lueth Bol Dengker
June 26, 2013 (SSNA) -- The south Sudan’s leadership conference will
be an interesting episode to watch. It will be an all-out war.
However, the most interesting part is when the top two will perhaps go
one on one. Whoever wins, will win by a knock-out, not by points. This
is the only way you can win a match and embarrass a referee, who is
squaring up with your opponent to influence the outcome otherwise.
Political landscape
The current and future political landscape in the south Sudan is
apparently poisonous-one that everybody fears, and a rocky place to
ride. In such environment, only political Asti odes will survive. The
SPLM convention will mark water shed and protests for the politicians
who will not make it. But those protests will add salt to the wound
.Regional conferences have been conducted, with Bhar-el-gazel,
endorsing president kiir .Equatoria, might have followed a similar
note. If that endorsement is anything to go by, then the president
will take it all.
With the upper Nile region left, and from the look of things, Machar’s
supporters may outnumber the incumbent’s, and toe the line to endorse
him. There are no significant inroads that such a move could alter the
overwhelming balance of support for the president, before the
election. On the other side of the coin, you will find out that the
opposition parties are climbing a ladder without steps. This means
that they have no formidable platform or network that will bring
diverse thinking intellectuals together to post a powerful opposition
to the government. I wanted to say that the opposition parties are
comprised of a group of “garden boys” who are neither team players nor
game changers. Whatever, they articulate is a “bear hall talk” and a
cosmetic exercise simultaneously.
As I have already stated, in a future to be seen, the most primary
decisions and policies are made within SPLM party structures and will
continue to do so. This is because the SPLM is the most irreversible
tsunami of south Sudan’s politics. You must be a 140 pounds political
giant, to be able to instigate a wind of change, against such a
dominant party.
The outcome of political debates and political battles in the SPLM and
its branches will continue to shape the content of the government. The
key role modules in this arena are the SPLM and the SPLMYL and
possible alliances.
The SPLM youth league, under its current leader has been a mouth piece
since the days of our late leader, and is perpetuating the same nature
now, upon which I can assert that; there is no leadership in the youth
league, because the current leadership, has elements factored with
selling -out the legacy of the youth league and a double agent -
abusing the league’s platform to save the master at all costs. With
his sell-out tendencies, his master will be be-abled to capitalise. He
is a traitor who can never be trusted to carry out the mandate of the
youth to its logical conclusion.
The league is in disarray, however, current status of the youth wing
will not change the outcome of that conference then, or in 2015
general elections, but it will dramatically do thereafter. The youth
fells that they are not represented because the current leadership
constitutes the group of “house boys” who were nominated at the back
yard, not whom the youth elected, and only represents the interest of
the master less they are fired. It is highly inconceivable that a
house boy can easily be turned against his master unless his master is
deposed.
This is why it is crucial to comprehend the style of contest within
the SPLM and its youth wing by measuring the roles each will
eventually play when the battle is at stake. Who wins the war or who
wins the battle, will be determined by the dynamics of such styles in
across the spectrum.
One of these styles is that; patronage rather than ideology is now the
key inertia of the SPLM politics and will shape the run up to the
convention. It is still inevitable to discern some ideological
consistency’ regarding the factions that coalesced around Dr Machar
and President Kiir. Kiir, looks set to defy the political harmony and
that is where his problem is’ because if he doesn’t, he risks losing
power. And if he continues defying the SPLM Legacy; it’s not a sin to
second Machar’s warning that; SPLM will be a “football”.
What makes the president so irritant rather articulate is that; he
knows’ once he lose power, he will never be back to the throne and he
would have gone a failed president. He must have tasted the glory of
being in the state house and insists not to buy that luxury of losing
it. So, he will do anything in his power to win by hook or crook. You
may level him incompetent at your own peril. But that is not the
point. In Africa you don’t have to worry about being a success or a
failure, or even abuse of human rights. What you need to do is, steal
public money, build mansions and buy the poor to vote for you when it
comes to elections. Question is; how long are you going to be
stealing? There is no doubt’ the buyers and the bought are all
thieves. The difference is; the buyer is the big thief and the bought
is the small thief, all bear the same conviction.
If you still are wondering what simple strategy Mr “Tiger” is capable
of, then you might not have monitored his personality from the angle
of incident.
It is simple; smile and laugh in the public, but in reality you behave
like a monster, a tyrant who will target perceived enemies without
mercy, and because of that fear few dare to speak openly." That is why
in South Sudan, everybody feels irritated even with a closest friend
because majority has become a security personnel. In this regard,
people fear the army of spies that surround the crown. Without a code
of conduct, not because those codes do not exist, but because they
have relentlessly been violated, these spies are fiercely willing to
silence discerning voices of reasons by detention, brutal attacks or
even massacre them, in an effort to install complete fear in the
“opposing and opposition” in order to take full control of the
embattled party and build a fault consensus, that will pave the way
for a long reign of the incumbent and subsequently seal power
struggle.
As I strongly suggest that power should remain in Bhar-el-gazel for
some time {I understand it is not a kingdom}, I also belief in the
accommodation of those individuals who have the potential. You can
call me silly, stupid and many more, in so much that I would, if you
do not agree with me that we, Bhar-el-gazelese have been the face of
the revolution and had been extremely sidelined in the leadership
circles during the struggle. Power, being in Bhar-el-gazel, is a
privilege, the same way as it has been for Upper Nile years ago, and I
belief we are not immune to the chance we have now. However, we do
need to be killers, dictators and triblists, rather act as people
holding the keys of authority and perfection.
However, the run-up to the national convention is primarily about
access to state resources for the benefit of particular interest
groups irrespective of their ideological attributions. It is for this
reason that SPLM and its alliances, will stand behind Kiir. It also
explains why the president striped his vice of the powers he once was
given ,and why he purged those rumoured to topple him, replacing them
with his closest, allies in order to strengthen his grip on the party.
While there is a group of the discontented fellas, those opposed to
the president has not consolidated into a coherent faction, and
consists of a spiralling, confused and an often realigning mess, a
group of power angry politicians without an agreed champion’. Indeed,
the vice president has put himself in this uncomfortable spot, by
availing himself to run for presidency. Mr Machar needs to calculate
his steps well. First, he must know that he is not going to win.
Secondly, if he runs against the incumbent, and doesn’t win, he will
most certainly lose his position within the SPLM and in the
government. If, by sympathy, he is retained, then he will lose
influence because he would have been neutralised.
The author of this article, is a south Sudanese living in Australia.
He can be reach at [email protected]
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