SPLM splint a potent hope for South Sudan fledging democracy
Jul. 15 Featured, Uncategorized 8 comments
BY: Deng Vanang, JUBA, JUL/15/2013, SSN;
Eight years in power is a long time for any party mindful of its
citizens and visionary enough to help the country make great strides
in good governance and economic development. It is within eight years
United States elected President makes dramatic changes in government
and leaves a mark behind with honors a satisfied man. Although this
shouldn’t be the case with South Sudan, a country that emerged
recently from twenty one years’ civil war, South Sudan could have done
better than what we see. No doubt it is a giant that has punched below
its weight.
With robust civil service system established in 1972-1983 by
autonomous regional government, youthful manpower, immensely untapped
material resources, generous friends readily available to lend a hand
and dozens of international experiences to learn from, South Sudan
undoubtedly has a good beginning.
Unlike many of her peer African states each of which started off with
less than five graduates and without good will from the departing
colonialists the time they gained their independence, South Sudan
should instead count her blessings than grumble perpetually.
The watch word of being a new born country that is tirelessly turned
into yet another national anthem casually sung by government officials
even at awkward places and times is not in the right place. On top of
these advantages, South Sudan achieved her independence at a time of
rapidly growing latest science, technology and information system,
which one South African official told us while we were in South Africa
in 2008, could help build a new country to the level of his country
within fifteen years.
The official opined that all the infrastructures we saw were gradually
built to where they are five hundred years ago. But given the modern
technology, South Sudan with its valuable resources can reach where
South Africa is within the next fifteen years. That is from 2005 to
2020.
What is needed by South Sudanese people and their government is a
combination of love for one another, unity and hard work, he
continued. Unfortunately what everybody knows South Sudanese lack all
these social ingredients and without which the road to better life for
all is undeniably long and tortuous.
Lacks of these vital elements that develop a nation have been
compounded by what I call wanting balance of power within the ruling
elite.
SPLM as mass party, the status it inherited from liberation era has
subconsciously worked against itself as it does to the development of
South Sudan entirely. The overzealous position has impeded the growth
of democracy as much as it deprived the country of economic growth
through corruption apart from gnawing insecurity encouraged by
staggering tribal and nepotistic tendencies.
Before explaining this in detail, what Nelson Mandela quoted when
being sworn in 1994 as a President of multi-racial South Africa serves
its purpose today as Great Mandela reels in pain in his sick bed. He
was quoted as saying lack of strong opposition to best advice the
ruling ANC is an Achilles heels of new found rainbow nation of South
Africa.
His colleagues might have taken it as a betrayal of the party that
crawled out of backwater of gruelling hundred years’ liberation
struggle while observers could view the concern as crocodile tears
sarcastically shed by the man who vanquished his opponents. Little did
they know Madiba was magnanimous with victory in the quest for
Posterity, a rare commodity in most self-seeking African leaders of
the day.
>From then on, ANC powerful position Mandela foresaw as a disadvantage
rather than a privilege is now taking its tolls on the country. ANC is
becoming more arrogant to listen to the voice of reason and in this
state of indifference South Africa is sliding deeper and deeper into
an abyss of corruption and dictatorship in every passing day. Many of
its supporters, including Mandela’s Thembu clan king are now fleeing
the ANC house they painstakingly built with sweat, tears and blood to
the former enemy, the Whites led Democratic Alliance party that is
magnificently ruling Western Cape Province out of eight other
provinces plagued by usual Blacks’ curse, the poor governance.
Reason being ANC black elites are extremely growing richer at the grim
expense of the black majority that are increasingly growing poorer and
disenchanted with the party they thought was messiah that descended to
liberate them. Even the ongoing hullabaloo within ANC inner circles
about keeping alive good old Mandela for eternity is not that love
about the world iconic figure. The party rather fears the death of
Mandela will snap the last string that connects the populous black
electorate with the leadership which shall mark the beginning of an
end of the ANC kleptocratic elite.
Equally South Sudan is no different from South Africa’s shilling
experience. Here SPLM is an ANC under which all the opportunists have
taken cover to enrich themselves. The two powerful tribes, the Dinka
and Nuer have brought under strangling hold all means of political
tyranny that embodies change such as population, economy, defence and
security forces and what have you, whether in dictatorship or
democracy.
This collusion rather than coalition has militated against concerted
efforts towards effecting what is necessary for the long suffering
South Sudanese including the Nuer and Dinka ordinary citizens. But
fortunately enough, the collusion is currently in tatters for the
referendum euphoria that once united the tribal gangs has precipitated
since the advent of country’s independence with rivalry of the past
making a tumultuous return, now eating deep into an all time fragile
unity of the country.
Other smaller tribes cannot be blamed for joining the monster they
could not beat. They are in under the dictate of natural survival
instincts far from sheer necessity. This over bearing political
dominance of the two has not only brutally killed ideological
diversity upon which any progressive country is built but also
destroyed the balance of power that makes reforms and regime change
possible.
In this monolithic bipolar-tribal system being small as a tribe is
becoming a curse since such system is built irrespective of charisma
needed to select leaders. Hence, obviously, no window of opportunity
for a person from small tribe to emerge on the top and lead the
country in the midst of struggling elephantine tribes in this vast
jungle called South Sudan.
The party cannot be expected of ushering in reforms since
retrogression is a revered king wielding both stick and carrot against
any cadres already cowed into toeing the party line by fear and
poverty. South Sudan being a poor country with people frightened by
devastating civil war they emerged out of its ashes the other day is a
proven sanctuary of merciless dictators and insatiable kleptocrats who
silence the hungry with dangled carrot while they frog march
opposition with a rod placed on the back.
In this scenario, opposition permanently remains the ground only
trodden by a few dare devil hardcore elements that value dignity in
rags and death than swinging potbellies in shame and regrettable
indignity.
In the face of such predicaments democracy is a road so narrow that is
dared pass through at one’s peril in this small and struggling part of
the world since it is a death bed for those who choose to fight and go
hungry.
Those who cry wolf that SPLM has lost direction are even hypocritical.
They are simply crying by themselves, of themselves and for themselves
to take over a charade they could not inherit while outside it.
For from day one of its inception in September 1983 SPLM is a
political organization born blind and it has never ever trodden in the
right direction with regards to meeting popular demand of South
Sudanese to be independent and how best the war could have been fought
against the North. Instead it went in zigzags traversing several miles
for the liberation of the whole Sudan with an aim of changing the way
the country was governed.
Uganda President Yoweri Museveni in the second independence
anniversary best captured that dilemma when he said the past war was
long and unnecessary trying to solve an obvious problem. Neither has
the movement been accountable and transparent to people from Itang
refugee camp in Ethiopia all through to the battle fields where it
commandeered food and cattle rations respectively.
Ruled in Marxist style reign of terror in the areas it controlled.
Jailed and killed the dissident voices who dared question the
direction in which the big man was heading the restive masses. It only
adopted self-determination under both local and international
pressures as temporary measure to calm ever restive masses with an
exit strategy.
This strategy was to kill self-determination with an election during
the interim period the big man hoped would deliver him the national
Presidency of the whole Sudan. Once that was accomplished, he would
turn around and eliminate those who would try to agitate for South
Sudan referendum.
With the big man gone mysteriously, the successor succumbed to the
popular will. He knew his weakness and cleverly turned it into
strength. The General knew he was no match to Field Marshal to be able
to win the Presidential election. Due to corruption, mismanagement and
tribalism he perpetuated down South he knew he had a poor score card
to use as a spring board to win over the northern part of the country
that was still holding out.
By technically responding to Southern demand for independence, the
SPLM in its abrupt U-turn has done what it always does. That is
betraying people of Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile it misled
into joining liberation of whole Sudan that never was. This is the
huge debt the country is now paying in an alleged relation with
SPLM-North the Sudan government decries as interference in its
internal affairs to which it is responding in kind by backing Southern
rebels and closing oil pipelines traversing through its territory.
How Democracy works
Democracy doesn’t thrive in an environment where one party is too
extremely powerful except where there are two or more political forces
shaking one another’s might. One may be in power while the rest are
outside threatening to take over the contested power trappings. Rather
than willingness, it is the fear in the party in power to be removed
if it under performs that makes it deliver much needed services to the
needy poor.
That is why the populous and powerful Nuer and Dinka being in one
party in a tribally charged country like South Sudan can never augur
well for necessary reforms to come about. If the two tribes are not
going to split the SPLM, South Sudan will not shed off a failed state
tag tied to its long tail of decadence.
The rivalry between the two tribes is viewed by some as setback which
is not true. It is rather the strength of South Sudan body politics to
quickly liberalize and democratize so long as the two peacefully
oppose and shake up each other powers, a move that will resultantly
effect change in the process for all.
Now it is exactly what the chiefs from these two tribes are engaging in.
In this urban political battle the President is currently winning the
psychological warfare against his Vice President. The logic is simple.
Machar as usual is no respecter of the interests of his long time
allies. He embraces johnnycomelateliers at the expense of those he
endures long and hard times with as it is exemplified in recent change
of allegiance between Taban Deng and Joseph Nguen Monytuil.
Unlike his Vice, President has what it takes to dangle before those
who are desperately in need of positions and better lifestyle in the
cities. This, notwithstanding, will not translate into electoral
victory at the end for Machar has the masses behind him disillusioned
by Kiir’s eight years poor governance. The masses shall be more
endeared to his dialectics as opposed to Kiir’s historical narratives.
Kiir is a man of history courtesy of SPLM/A liberation struggle. If he
retains the chairmanship in the upcoming SPLM convention, he will do
everything in his powers to appeal to the former SPLM Torit faction
strong holds against the past SPLM Nasir faction controlled areas
which eventually diminished and lost out to the former.
And what will be Machar political vehicle Kiir will derogatorily
regard it as yet another failed Nasir faction camouflaged in different
form. In rebuttal, Machar will not use history for in practical terms
in this minefield he is a failure.
Not a failure in theory because it was his talents, patriotism and
compromise SPLM mainstream used as fodders to succeed while it
simultaneously rubbished him as a traitor and concomitant failure.
Machar’s achievements are very much hidden in the history and too
abstract to the ordinary citizenry to understand. Than waste time
explaining the abstract, he will certainly find comfort in the
philosophy of dialectical materialism.
That is, reasoning out to the electorate how and why Kiir government
has irredeemably under performed. In so doing he should not allow
himself to be vague about it as it is the case now in the media. He
needs to breakdown Political and economic corruption, insecurity, lack
of rule of law and troubled foreign policy into details since it is
where the devil lies best to the understanding of the common man and
woman on the dust filled streets and far flung villages.
Goes further down as to how grave such mal-practices diminished their
bread and endangered personal security, education and health of their
children.
The two rivals should not even waste plenty of time trying to
penetrate into each other tribal enclaves of Nuer and Dinka since the
final victor will be one who bags the larger support of other 62
ethnic groups. Each of whom will not penetrate the other ethnic base
electoral-wise but the ethnic bases are only suitable in their
psychological warfare to frustrate each other.
Machar’s feel-good attitude that he has what it takes in Dinka land to
win the upcoming elections is not in place and the same fact applies
to Kiir in the Nuer heartland. Both only have politicians and
intellectuals from the two ethnic rival communities who will not win
substantial votes for them in rural areas where votes actually are.
Kiir is much aware of this than Machar. That is why he is telling Bor
community either subtly that he is still their son despite the
circumstances by making Anglican Archbishop Daniel Deng Bul the
chairperson of National Reconciliation and Healing as he frustrates
Machar. And he will certainly bring closer Bor community to the warmth
of his Presidency as elections gets nearer.
It is the same method he uses not to arrange any Dinka politician
before anti-corruption Commission as much as he visits any Dinka area
where natural or man-made disaster strikes. He is telling Dinka
community as history entails their unity, which they use to beat
others into line, is far more important and a pre-requisite to the
maintenance of South Sudan leadership from which the community pride
and economic advantage over the rest emanate.
The same replica will be in Nuer land as both camps shall closely
monitor each other while campaigning in tribal strongholds and any
blunder shall be used with maximum effect. The Nuers hitherto accuse
their Dinka cousins of not being grateful to them for not
reciprocating their goodwill leadership gestures. It is through the
support of late Peter Gatkuoth Gual Uncle Abel Alier used to win
Southern regional elections in 1970s and 80s.
The same repeated itself when Samuel Gai Tut sided with Akwot Atem
against his nephew Dr. John Garang over the SPLM/A leadership. While
William Nyuon Bany was loyally supportive to Garang against Nuer led
Anya-nya Two. They can as well cite how Bullen Alier and Santino Deng
Teng frustrated the Liberal Party leadership of Both Diu in 1953 as
well as that of Philip Pidak Lieth as Deputy President to Aggrey Jaden
in SANU by William Deng Nhial in 1964.
This belligerent stand shall remain in force and won’t be swayed by
any other Nuer Kiir will make Vice President in case he sacks Machar.
Instead will rather provoke more anger since the Nuer will view it as
Kiir’s stubborn determination to deny them the top job by keeping them
subjugated in the Vice Presidency of which they are fatigued and don’t
longer need.
Kiir’s preference of another Nuer to become Vice President over James
Wani Igga or anybody from Equatoria against SPLM current hierarchy and
its entrenched traditions will backfire even more. For it will
subsequently alienate his supporters in Equatoria and wholesomely hand
over the vote’s rich region on silver platter to Machar.
The President’s alleged plan to usher in reforms in the government as
the way of making Machar irrelevant shall not only be held back by
power struggle between him and his vice President but also his
selective anti-graft war, diminishing resources to deliver much needed
services, heavy handed response to criticism by human rights groups as
a result of government paranoia and of course lack of enough time to
do the miracles within less than two years before 2015 general
elections.
All the above enumerated factors shall work in favor of Machar.
Already Machar’s quest for Presidency doesn’t enable the president to
convene either political bureau meeting or party convention where
serious decisions, if any, could be taken and which he is unsure of
going his way.
Some of these decisions could be the passage of party basic rules
already decried by his opponents as dictatorial with an aim of rigging
him in for another term in the office in which he failed to do
anything tangible for the last eight years and nothing is expected
from another five-year term he is begging to be given.
Now his option is to embark on undeclared state of emergency, a de
facto one which made him during the independence celebration to ferry
in ten thousand strong troops loyal to him into capital city Juba and
other nine states capitals where he will appoint his die-hard allies
as Governors so that any negative reaction to any plan he makes shall
be contained through brute force.
In this inauguration of totalitarian dictatorship, the army is not
spared either. The President is said to be toying with an idea of
appointing an army chief of General staff with an iron fist to
galvanize the fractured unity in the army already divided by tribal
and regional loyalties against his opponents.
This lame duck strategy won’t help his government and neither the
country but shall only maintain him in a too shaky position of
non-performance he thinks will hand him yet another five year term he
couldn’t otherwise manage to get through free-for-all democratic
elections.
To camouflage the wanton despotism he will certainly be tempted to
form an inclusive government that will only do his bidding than
responding to public interest. The strategy shall serve the intended
purpose of saving face by keeping Machar and other opponents in state
of limbo.
However, Machar and allies can still see some silver lining in Kiir’s
wild plans. In the heat of SPLM internal power struggle, the North
Sudan shall take an advantage by stonewalling Abyie referendum, taking
more lucrative disputed border territories and again turning off oil
tapes, further strangling planned reforms in Kiir government it
accuses of aiding the SPLM–North.
While on the other hand Machar himself can heighten sabotage of
President’s decisions and actions as he equally agitates for radical
change from within that will force Kiir into sacking him so that his
supporters’ spontaneous reaction to the bad news shall usher in
violence beyond the president’s control and possibly bring him down
leaving in its wake profound anarchy in the country.
Viable solution
The only viable option to save the country from degenerating into the
anarchy is for the president to reach out to his opponents from within
and the opposition so as to form an all inclusive government of
national unity on 50/50 power sharing basis between ruling SPLM and
entire opposition with the free hand to create a clear road map in the
run up to 2015 elections.
The purposed government will prepare a soft landing ground for the
next elections and the upcoming elected government so that it is not
going to spend the first of its five year term putting in place proper
laws and institutions to be able to deliver basic services while
people continue to languish in dire needs.
In fulfilment of this nobility, the unity government shall set five
goals for itself to achieve in public interest and country’s
stability. The new government in pursuit of this noble goal can as
well become the legal arbiter between SPLM warring factions since it
will force them to hold their convention as the neutral Political
Party Council shall dictate and those will be losers will opt for a
peaceful divorce to form a party of their own in order to compete in
the slated elections.
In this strategy all political forces including SPLM opponents shall
rest assured to implement proper execution of the following agenda as
demonstrated below. The government of national unity with incumbent
President, Vice President and a new Prime Minister selected from
opposition with two deputies can work in consultative basis.
While the parties work hand in hand in the national unity government
can establish an inclusive Constitutional review commission to come up
with laws that will address current land grab, failed anti-corruption
war and reform judiciary. Establish Political parties Council to
register political parties as may be required by law. Order the
establishment of an inclusive National Election Commission as well as
allow the timely conduct of population census.
Restructuring the army and civil defense forces shall also come in
handy before the highly anticipated first post independence polls.
In response to popular demand, the constitution will obviously
accommodate federalism, a password for my pet subject, regionalism, I
love with passion as a solution to this country myriad of problems
since decentralization has been misused by some to ride rough shod
over the rest, causing irreconcilable divisions and likely
disintegration of the country.
So far both President Kiir and Vice President Machar have contradicted
themselves on federalism. The President recently engaged in organizing
regional conferences as opposed to his decentralization or unitary
system doctrine while Machar criticized them as balkanization of the
country along regional lines which diametrically contradicts his quest
for federalism, a regionalism in disgust.
To me it is only federalism to make states semi-autonomous that has
the potential of detribalizing and liberalizing South Sudan. It is the
same purposed system of governance that can level political playing
field for all – big and small tribes.
Should South Sudanese think of three Greater regions comprising
constituent autonomous states than about their tribes within their
sub-regions, there will be a semblance of unity in South Sudan. For
under threat of being outwitted politically and denied economic
opportunities by rival region, people of each region must strive to
work together in order to be in power.
Within each region big tribe will need smaller tribes and trade off
some of its power for support lest they are taken away by another big
tribe in the rival region, eventually depriving it of power.
Consequently each region will form a regional political bloc that
unites its ranks and piles and as a result of falling short of
winning, it will form a coalition with another in a run–off election.
In this power game all tribes in the regions shall have the same value
and respect to accord one another since one will not make do without
the other, big or small.
Deng Vanang is a Journalist and member of National Executive Committee
of the leading opposition party, SPLM-DC.
All the views expressed above are his and not attributed to SPLM-DC as
the party.
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8 Comments
Kenyi Lo Equatoria
July 16, 2013 at 10:10 am
Deng,
Thank you so much for this analysis. It is liberating.
Reply
Majongcol
July 16, 2013 at 4:13 pm
Your analysis is fake. Kiir must go ahead with his plans to fire
the traitors of this nation
Reply
KikisikKikisik
July 16, 2013 at 9:29 pm
Excellent analysis —- Keep it up brother!
Reply
AW joseph
July 16, 2013 at 11:54 pm
Dear Majongcol,
Being a Dinka we expect nothing new from you or alternatives for
better South Sudan for all of us to enjoy.
A great thinker of his time, Ernest Benn was once quoted of saying
“that Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether
it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong
remedy”, that is exactly what the SPLM/SPLA did since 1983-2013.
What is new that SPLM/A’s Dinka has done to people of South Sudan?
The CURRENT SPLM REGIME is dysfunctional, chaotic, lost direction and
lacks vision.
Instead of giving the current Regime more keys for opening and
closing doors of the country through one man one vote, it is better to
change the locks.
What will stop this power hungry Dinka savages from obtaining
another fake 98% election result. We witnessed the burning of houses
and killing of those South Sudanese who had openly said they would
vote for the unity of Sudan. .
To my knowledge Dinka SPLM/A will accept nothing other than
victory at all cost
Reply
Manyok R.
July 17, 2013 at 2:32 am
And then at the end of firing both of you would go to hell!
Believe it or not. That era of isolation and demonization is over. It
ain’t gona work this time round. Be prepared to deal with loss of easy
looting public funds for yourself-interests. Salva Kiir is no more!
Reply
zacharia
July 17, 2013 at 6:36 am
what i have realized all dinka are so emotional with kiir in their
comment, even if he is wrong, but i am not worried, this will be over.
kiir is not a GOD, he is a president but not for all people, only for
the dinka people, and the reality is, he is not so accepted by
non-dinka and they are the majority.
that is a hope by itself, he will go and the dinka will as well
go, this is not a knigdom guys… get lost……..wau nar
Reply
Gabriel
July 17, 2013 at 8:19 am
Machar will not and never be an alternative to president Kiir Mayardit.
Reply
simon peter
July 17, 2013 at 4:50 pm
I think president should thank all the Southerners for giving him
those years. we just respect the independence of our country. you are
not fit in any how. educationally, politically and socially. Your are
the first and will be last primitive president ever. try to understand
the warning. and thanks.
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