---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: "John Ashworth" <[email protected]> Date: 22 Jul 2013 18:05 Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Jonglei reflections To: "Group" <[email protected]>
A few reflections on the current situation in Jonglei, not necessarily in any logical order, attempting to highlight the complexity of the situation: - The six communities of Jonglei State signed a peace agreement in 2012 which led to encouraging signs of progress. While the current conflict is not completely disconnected from previous conflicts, nevertheless it is the re-emergence of Khartoum-supported dissaffected leader David Yau Yau which has triggered it. If Yau Yau can be taken out of the equation, through the amnesty offered by the president and by the efforts of churches and many within the Murle community, there will be an opportunity to build once again on the achievements of the Jonglei peace agreement as well as the new national reconciliation process. - The Jonglei peace agreement identified both lack of development and inequitable development in the state as key causes of conflict. Both the government and the aid community failed to address these issues promptly and effectively through providing peace dividends in the form of rapid response relief and development initiatives. This still remains a priority. - It is unclear exactly what is the motivation of the armed Nuer youth who have recently joined the conflict. Is it to take the law into their own hands and protect their community due to their perception that the government has failed to do so? Is it to fight the Murle in general or is it targeted more directly at Yau Yau? Is their ambition to defend their own border (and perhaps push a little beyond) or to expel the Murle from Jonglei State? Is it merely an excuse for more cattle raiding? Or a mixture of all of these? Are they still in contact with the Murle, or are they returning home (see 3 below), or have they split with some returning home and others remaining in the field? Has the prophet re-entered the fray? Some clarification would be useful. - It became clear during the Jonglei peace process that certain political leaders, both national and at state level, had their own interests in the conflicts. Is this still the case? While some are working for peace, others may be working to undermine it. What can be done to expose and minimise these dynamics? - Human rights abuses have been committed by all parties in the Jonglei conflict, including SPLA, as has been zealously documented by the international human rights industry. Presumably the overriding goal is to prevent/reduce human rights abuses. The best way to do that will be to end the conflict. When issuing public statements, however technically correct and morally upstanding they may be, it is important to ask whether issuing it at that particular point in time will aid or hinder the resolution of the conflict. - While the conflict in Jonglei is a human tragedy and a humanitarian disaster, it is nevertheless a single conflict in a single small part of the huge country of South Sudan, much of it confined to a single county. It has its own specific roots and dynamics. While it is indeed a massive tragedy, it is not correct to conclude that it is therefore a massive threat to the stability of the nation as a whole. John BEGIN 1. South Sudan: UN says 100,000 people are cut off from vital aid Violence leaves tens of thousands trapped in unsafe conditions amid fears country could descend into civil war David Smith in Johannesburg guardian.co.uk, Thursday 18 July 2013 10.15 EDT Some 100,000 people in South Sudan have been cut off from vital aid by fighting between government forces, rebels and rival tribes, the UN has warned. The South Sudanese army is threatened by a rebellion from a militia led by the politician David Yau Yau in the sprawling Jonglei state, while new clashes have erupted between the rival Lou Nuer and Murle tribes. The violence has left tens of thousands of people hiding in unsafe, malaria-infested swamps and sparked fears that the world's newest country could descend into civil war. It is flooded with weapons after decades of conflict with Sudan before it gained independence two years ago. Valerie Amos, the UN's under-secretary general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief co-ordinator, said: "I am alarmed by the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Pibor county in Jonglei, where an estimated 100,000 civilians have been cut off from life-saving assistance as a result of fighting between state and non-state armed actors, and the recent resurgence of inter-communal clashes. "The fighting is threatening the lives of ordinary people and has reduced the ability of humanitarian organisations to provide urgently needed help … as long as the fighting continues, delivery of aid will be limited and we will not get help to those who need it." The UN does not have enough helicopters to deliver aid to Jonglei where overland travel is impossible in the rainy reason. It has also expressed concern over an outbreak of measles among children, which can be fatal in such conditions. Médecins sans Frontières (MSF), one of the few aid groups operating in Jonglei, said more than 120,000 people had been forced to flee clashes between the army and Yau Yau rebels. Its teams have treated hundreds of wounded and are attempting to reach thousands more hiding in the bush. Raphael Gorgeu, MSF's head of mission, said: "We are currently treating, with the support of the ministry of health, 176 wounded, including 128 gunshot wounds, and so far we have performed 34 surgical interventions. We are expecting more to come. Our next priority is to ensure that patients in need of post-operative care and follow-up are flown to our larger MSF projects in Lankien, Nasir and Leer. Seven have already been moved." The UN has not published any casualty figures for the Jonglei fighting despite a large presence of peacekeepers. Critics believe it does not want to embarrass the government. South Sudan accuses its northern neighbour of supplying Yau Yau with weapons. Diplomats say the claims are credible but South Sudan's army is also fuelling dissent with abuses such as rape, killings and torture committed during a state disarmament campaign. Tribal conflict has worsened the situation, killing more than 1,600 people in Jonglei since South Sudan's secession. A UN source told Reuters that armed Lou Nuer youth had attacked several Murle villages in the past two weeks. Fighters loyal to Yau Yau, who is popular with his Murle tribe, had come to help retaliate. Separate tribal clashes were also reported in Unity state, which contains several oilfields. In one incident attackers apparently torched a hut in a village with a woman and three children inside. Earlier this month a group of US-based activists who supported South Sudan's independence warned that the country faced an "increasingly perilous fate" and was sliding towards "instability, conflict and a protracted government crisis" due in part to rampant official corruption and abuse of power. John Ashworth, a church adviser who has lived in South Sudan for three decades, played down suggestions that the fighting could escalate into civil war. "Despite the many deaths and the suffering associated with David Yau Yau's rebellion, it is nevertheless only a relatively limited insurgency in one small part of the huge new nation of South Sudan by a single disaffected leader and his supporters," he said. "Although it is destabilising a state in which only last year the six ethnic communities signed a peace agreement to resolve their differences, at this stage there is little sign that it might spread to other states." http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/18/south-sudan-un-people-aid?INTCMP=SRCH END1 2. South Sudan: Army Making Ethnic Conflict Worse Abusive Tactics, Lack of Protection, Send Civilians Fleeing JULY 19, 2013 Human Rights Watch "Yet again the government of South Sudan has utterly failed to stop armed Lou Nuer youth from moving into ethnic Murle areas, despite advance warnings that they were mobilizing. This failure, together with a spate of serious abuses by soldiers in the area, only reinforces the perception that South Sudan’s leaders are taking sides in this ethnic conflict." - Daniel Bekele, Africa director (Nairobi) – South Sudan has committed serious abuses against civilians in its anti-insurgency campaign in Jonglei state, Human Rights Watch said today. Soldiers' abuses and conflict with rebels have caused thousands of civilians to flee, making them especially vulnerable to recent large-scale attacks in an ethnic conflict in the same region. At the same time, the army, massed in largely empty towns, has failed to protect civilians from these attacks. President Salva Kiir should publicly condemn the attacks and ensure that authorities immediately investigate and identify all those responsible, including government officials. He should also publicly order the military to investigate and hold to account any abusive soldiers. “Yet again the government of South Sudan has utterly failed to stop armed Lou Nuer youth from moving into ethnic Murle areas, despite advance warnings that they were mobilizing,” said Daniel Bekele, Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “This failure, together with a spate of serious abuses by soldiers in the area, only reinforces the perception that South Sudan’s leaders are taking sides in this ethnic conflict.” The anti-insurgency campaign started in earnest in March 2013 against David Yau Yau, a rebel leader and political aspirant from the Murle ethnic group. South Sudan’s army and government have blamed a lack of command and control and the actions of rogue soldiers for the abuses and have said civilians were killed in crossfire between rebels and the army. Fighting between the Lou Nuer and Murle erupted in Jonglei state in the first week of July, when thousands of armed Lou Nuer men traveling on foot moved into remote areas of Jonglei’s Pibor county, an ethnic Murle area. The total number of casualties is not known. But on July 15, South Sudan’s army, the SPLA, and the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) airlifted nearly 200 injured Lou Nuer men to Bor, the state capital. Injured Murle, presumed to be in the hundreds, have yet to be located. Military officials told Human Rights Watch in July that the soldiers, hampered by rain and a shortage of troops, would only be able to protect civilians in towns, not in remote areas. However, almost all Murle civilians had already fled the towns during the anti-insurgency campaign, often after soldiers committed serious abuses against civilians. “People fled to the bush because of the conflict between soldiers and rebels but also because of soldiers’ abuses that have made them afraid to return,” Bekele said. “Outside of the towns Murle have no health or other services and are even more vulnerable to ethnic attacks.” Murle and international organizations working in Jonglei allege that the army supported Lou Nuer groups with weapons and other supplies. They say that soldiers provided water and food to the Lou Nuer attackers in the town of Manyabol during the first week of July. They also say that soldiers provided ammunition to Lou Nuer groups in Waat and Nyandit ahead of the Lou Nuer mobilization. Human Rights Watch has not been able to confirm the allegations, but they are serious and the government should urgently investigate them. The UN mission should also conduct a full human rights investigation and report publicly on the conflict and the human rights abuses in Pibor county since the conflict between Yau Yau and the government intensified in August 2012. South Sudan’s army deployed thousands of soldiers to Pibor county’s main towns – Pibor, Gumruk, Boma, and Manyabol – as part of the 2013 anti-insurgency campaign. Tens of thousands of civilians have fled towns after fighting between soldiers and Yau Yau’s group, and a string of serious abuses by soldiers against Murle civilians that Human Rights Watch documented, include killings and widespread intimidation. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said on July 18, 2013, that all six major population centers in Pibor had been abandoned with about 40,000 inhabitants displaced. At least 8,500 Murle are estimated to have fled to neighboring countries this year and around 7,000 to Juba, South Sudan’s capital. In Manyabol, for example, almost all civilians fled after soldiers shot a group of three chiefs and five other men in the center of the town on May 26. Witnesses told Human Rights Watch that the men who were killed were all unarmed. Community members and authorities from the area said that another four men from the community, including two policemen, were killed the same evening in the army barracks. In interviews with Human Rights Watch, witnesses reported a number of killings of civilians, including women and children, by soldiers in December, January, March, April, and May in or around the town of Pibor. Human Rights Watch also heard numerous accounts of verbal and physical abuse and looting of civilian property by soldiers over the months, especially in mid-May. These latest abuses follow serious abuses, including killings and torture, by the army during a disarmament campaign in 2012 and failures by the government to hold perpetrators of earlier ethnic violence to account (see below for details), creating an environment of impunity. Yau Yau’s forces have fought near the town of Pibor since late 2012, according to the UN, government authorities and others. Rebels have shelled the town, contributing to panic, and Yau Yau has publicly warned civilians to leave, saying his forces plan to attack it. However, dozens of displaced Murle interviewed by Human Rights Watch in June and July said that it was fear of further killings and looting by the soldiers in the town that made them flee. “We were hoping that the soldiers were coming to protect us (from Yau Yau’s forces), but instead they are killing us,” said a Murle civilian from Pibor who fled to Juba. The attacks in July have caused more displacement. Aid workers told Human Rights Watch that the recent attack caused most civilians to flee Gumuruk, the only remaining town in Pibor county with a significant Murle civilian population. Officials from South Sudan’s government and army should urgently condemn the attacks and ensure that all Lou Nuer fighters leave Pibor county and that those suspected of supporting or carrying out the attacks are investigated and arrested, Human Rights Watch said. “Soldiers have repeatedly committed serious crimes against civilians, which has fuelled distrust of the military and the depopulation of towns,” Bekele said. “South Sudan’s leaders should ensure that soldiers protect civilians rather than abuse them, and the starting point is to hold abusive soldiers to account.” Earlier Ethnic Conflict, Failed Government Response The government has repeatedly failed to protect civilians from similar ethnic conflict, including large-scale attacks in Jonglei, despite warnings, in 2009, and again in December 2011 and January 2012. At that time, an estimated 6,000 armed Lou Nuer attacked Murle civilians in remote areas of Pibor county, killing hundreds. A report by the UN mission on the 2011-2012 attacks and counter-attacks found that the army was too late to deploy adequate forces to protect Murle communities even though the mission had warned that Lou Nuer fighters were approaching. The mission documented the deaths of 612 Murle, and of 276 Bor Dinka and Lou Nuer in revenge attacks by Murle during the same period. The government’s response, however, did not effectively address the cycle of violence or fully carry out the mission’s recommendations. The government has supported piecemeal peace processes in Jonglei since 2012. But, it has not investigated the ethnic violence, taken steps to prosecute leaders responsible for attacks on civilians, or investigated claims that government officials may have been involved in organizing the violence. Rather than ensuring accountability for the crimes, the government delayed forming an investigation committee. Its primary response to the 2011-2012 conflict was an abusive disarmament campaign. In early 2012, South Sudanese forces began “Operation Restore Peace,” during which soldiers committed serious human rights violations. These violations have been widely cited as a major reason why large numbers of Murle youth joined the rebellion led by Yau Yau. The government has sent emissaries to try to persuade Yau Yau to accept a peace deal and have offered the Murle rebels amnesty. http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/07/19/south-sudan-army-making-ethnic-conflict-worse END2 3. YouTube video purports to show thousands of Nuer youth returning home, watched by UNMISS and SPLA, at Manyabol on 14 July 2013 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_fFxBIJWzw [NB: The text accompanying the video refers to them as "a government supported militia". That description is open to dispute. John] END3 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 79 832 8834 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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