Sacking Riek Machar is not politically prudent
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By Mapuor Malual Manguen
July 22, 2013 - Speculation is rife in the country that President
Salva Kiir Mayardit may sack his Deputy and main political rival Dr.
Riek Machar Teny. Machar who has been Vice President since 2005 and
has openly expressed interest to vie for the seat of the ruling Sudan
Peoples’ Liberation Movement currently occupied by his boss, President
Salva Kiir Mayardit.
Since Machar declared his interest for the presidency come general
election slated for 2015, he has upped on his criticism of Kiir’s
reign. He has cited corruption, tribalism, and poor international
relations as failures of President Kiir’s leadership and has
challenged the President to step down for him.
It is against this backdrop that rumour has been swirling that
President Kiir may show his defiant deputy and rival the exit door. If
such a move is to happen, President Kiir will require the two-thirds
majority members of National Legislative Assembly as per the
requirement of National Transitional Constitution of South Sudan. If
the president takes this line, he must be prepared to satisfactorily
convince lawmakers why he would want to sack his deputy. Moreover, the
Republic of South Sudan is already mired in polarized ethnic tensions
and tribalism. To sack Dr. Machar would exacerbate the already muddied
relations of some rival communities in the country.
Politically, Dr. Riek Machar is playing his card very prudently. He is
taking advantage of woes that South Sudan faces and has faced since
gaining independence two years ago as an opportunity to woo support of
the masses.
Based on his political undertones, he projects himself as a reformist
and pro-democracy when he states that his intention to run for
presidency is healthy and should not cause any tension. This assertion
could sound sweet in the ears of democracy promoting countries who are
pushing for democratization of the world’s youngest nation. Therefore,
if President Kiir sacks his deputy, it will be political suicide on
his part because it will definitely alienate some of his friends in
the West as they would see him as dictatorial.
Nevertheless, just as the timing of Machar’s declaration for
presidency is significant for the interest of popularization of his
agenda, it is equally risky in the same measure. The elections are
still two years away. If the President does not sack him, he may
isolate Machar politically by alienating him from his political
backers. If allegations that former Governors of Lakes and Unity
states were supporters of Machar’s presidency for 2015 are anything to
go by, then it could be a strong indicator of the beginning of his
political isolation. State Governors, County Commissioners, National
Ministers and any other senior officials play an important role
between presidential aspirant and masses or voters. Kiir could use the
advantage of being the appointer and statehouse incumbent to get a
firm grip in the grassroots. The early declaration by Machar will make
him score poorly in this area. The rumor of Cabinet shuffle in the air
could see pro-Machar Ministers kicked out and replaced with loyalists
of President. Such a move will leave Machar more isolated and an
insignificant vice-President. Out of frustration, it could leave him
with no option but to resign his post voluntarily and become an active
opposition outside of government.
The author is a freelance journalist and columnist based in Juba. He
can be reached at [email protected]
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