Southern Dissident Militias Since South Sudan’s independence, the scale of anti-government militia activity has been limited compared with the period between the April 2010 elections—when electoral losses motivated a number of rebellions—and the lead-up to independence in July 2011. Dissident forces continue to exist, but have largely operated from Sudan, making occasional incursions into Unity and Upper Nile state. However, the return of militia leader David Yau Yau to Jonglei state in 2012 poses a threat to the stability of the new country.
The decline in militia activity in 2011–12 was due in part to the integration of the forces of Yau Yau, Peter Gadet, and Gabriel Tang-Ginye into the SPLA in August and October 2011; and the deaths of Gatluak Gai and George Athor in July and December 2011 respectively. Following Athor’s death, his South Sudan Democratic Movement/Army (SSDM/A) came under the leadership of Peter Kuol Chol Awan. In February 2012, Awan also returned to the SPLA. Core SSDM/A forces and those under the command of Gadet, Gai, and Tang-Ginye have undergone an integration process with the army. While a number of Southern militias remained active, mainly in the Sudanese states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, support for them within South Sudan waned, as they were perceived to be removed from local issues, and were being used by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) to fight the SPLA-North. On 24 April 2013, Government of South Sudan (GoSS) President Salva Kiir issued a presidential amnesty for six militia leaders operating in Sudan and South Sudan; Gordon Kong, David Yau Yau, Oyuok Ogot, Bapiny Monytuil Wicjang, Johnson Olony, and Munto Abdallah Munto. On 26 April the South Sudan Liberation Army (SSLA) announced that they had declared peace with the GoSS; a large number of their troops, under the leadership of Bapiny Monytuil, Mathew Pul Jang, and Karlo Kuol soon returned to South Sudan fully armed with weapons supplied from the North, and now await resolution of integration negotiations. Shortly thereafter, the National Intelligence and Security Services detained family members of the SSLA defectors who had been residing in Khartoum, and confiscated some of their belongings. The threats from the other militia groups have decreased significantly, and the recent presidential amnesty and peace negotiated with the SSLA has traction. Yet if the SPLM/A fails to provide basic services to the very well armed SSLA forces now stationed in Mayom, Unity state, they run the risk that the SSLA fighters may once again return to the bush with their arms. The SPLA is however reluctant to provide for soldiers who were so recently mortal enemies, and past experiences with integration of rebel forces suggests it is unlikely to do so quickly. The other militia leaders have not accepted the amnesty but there are indications that Johson Olony’s Shilluk forces are considering the offer. Yau Yau’s militia remains active, and is gaining ground in Jonglei, destabilizing not only that state but also into Eastern Equatoria, Upper Nile, and Central Equatoria. In April 2012, the SPLA announced that Yau Yau re-defected from the SPLA. He had requested sick leave and went to Kenya, from there he proceeded to Khartoum, returning to Pibor via Blue Nile and Ethiopia in August 2012. He has since remained active in Pibor county. In April 2013, a new spokesman for the SSDM/A emerged, Col. Peter Konyi Kubrin, who in the Jebel Boma Declaration claimed that Yau Yau was now the militia’s leader. Greater Southern political cohesion in 2011–12 may have also contributed to a reduction in rebel activity. Independence and the renewed threat posed by Sudan—in political and military clashes with Juba over the transport of oil and Hejlij—generated a sense of national solidarity that temporarily overcame many divisions within South Sudan. However, the subsequent austerity measures and high inflation rates also had a negative impact on the government’s ability to provide basic services in most of the country, frustrating remote communities. The recent agreements between Sudan and South Sudan, and in particular the agreements in March 2013 on security measures along the Sudan-South Sudan border, has the potential to reduce the activity of Southern militia along the border area. But the ingredients for a resurgence of militia activity remain in place in South Sudan, as has been seen with the recent activity in Jonglei and the ground gained by the Yau Yau militia. The continued lack of space for political opposition means the use of violence remains one of the few ways to negotiate for political and economic improvements. The prevalence of cattle-raiding, the need for community self-defense measures in the absence of government-provided security, and the political and tribal fractures that exist in the government and military, are all internal factors that create a conducive environment for militias. In addition, with national elections anticipated in 2014, political factions will likely continue to fracture in the run-up to the polling, and with potential dissatisfaction with the results. There is increasing overlap between dissident militias and the activities of tribal militias. For example, the forces of Yau Yau, is capitalizing on the Murle’s heightened resentment over the SPLA’s repressive disarmament process there. Yau Yau is thought to have mobilized between 3,000 and 6,000 youths, though the exact relationship between the youths and the militia group is unclear. Yau Yau and his fighters may serve simply as conduits for arms and ammunition without having the youths’ actual allegiance. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the group includes non-Murle, as well. Weapons and ammunition that the Small Arms Survey believes Khartoum supplied to Yau Yau’s forces have been appearing in use in inter-communal conflicts in several areas throughout Greater Upper Nile. Despite difficult rainy season conditions in late 2012, fighting between Yau Yau’s forces and the SPLA resulted in significant losses for the SPLA. Early victories for the militia—including an attack on the SPLA near Likuangole that resulted in about 150 SPLA deaths—were followed by SPLA successes in October 2012. Further clashes between Yau Yau’s forces and the SPLA took place in Likuangole during early November. On 2 December 2012, one of Yau Yau’s commanders, Capt. Duag Kuburin (not to be confused with Col. Peter Kubrin, spokesman of the SSDM/A) defected to the SPLA with 183 of his soldiers. In January 2013, President Kiir delegated Murle political leaders to initiate peace talks with David Yau Yau. The delegation travelled to Pibor on 26 January and sent a group to talk with Yau Yau in Kelo. However, they failed to meet Yau Yau, and only spoke with his deputy, Kong Kong. With the failure of the Murle leadership to meet with Yau Yau, the SPLA initiated a military response in March to try and contain Yau Yau, which has largely failed and Yau Yau has gained ground including capturing the symbolic town of Boma in eastern Jonglei state. The SPLA has experienced significant losses, and there have been reports of over 1000 SPLA dessertions, some of which have defected to Yau Yau. As the military has indiscriminately targeted the Murle community, local support for Yau Yau has continued to grow. In May 2013, the SPLA was able to recapture Boma town, although Yau Yau’s militia seems to be attracting support from other groups including Boya, Toposa, Shilluk, and possibly some Nuer and Dinka who feel politically disenfranchised. Militia leaders Johnson Olonyi and Alyuak Ogot, both Shilluks whose spheres of operation and influence reside in the Shilluk areas along the western bank of the Nile in Upper Nile state, have made occasional incursions from locations across the border in South Kordofan. Olonyi commands an estimated 700-800 men. Divisions among the SSLA and Olonyi’s forces had surfaced in August 2012. Divisions between Olonyi and Ogot have also been reported, but where they fall in the SSLA divide is unclear. The SSLA and Olonyi forces had reportedly been based at ‘Kilo 23,’ a base between Hejlij and Kharasana where the groups have undergone training. Khartoum has reportedly used these forces in its counter-insurgency against the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North in South Kordofan. Although there had been initial rumors that the Shilluk militia had accepted the presidential amnesty in April 2013, Olonyi released a statement that he had not surrendered, and never planed to surrender to the “SPLM Regime.” However, in May 2013, the Shilluk king reported that Olonyi had sought, and been granted, his pardon for the 2010 killing of a Shilluk chief, which is a significant indication that peace talks with the Shilluk militia are underway. Despite Peter Gadet’s integration in August 2011, he remains a volatile figure due to his record of repeated defections. In March 2013 he was deployed to head up the SPLA’s military actions against Yau Yau’s militia in Jonglei. There have been some rumors of attempted assassinations of Gadet by both Yau Yau and the SPLA in recent months. With the death of Paulino Matiep, the Bul Nuer former commander of the civil war-era South Sudan Defense Forces (SSDF), Gadet may step into the late Matiep’s role as the leader of the largest spoiler element within the SPLA. The role of former SSDF commander Gordon Kong going forward also remains in question. In May 2012, 250 of his men under the command of John Duit defected to the SPLA. Updated 4 June 2013 Click below for information on the following insurrections: - George Athor in Jonglei state<http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/facts-figures/south-sudan/armed-groups/southern-dissident-militias/HSBA-Armed-Groups-Athor.pdf> - Gatluak Gai in Unity state<http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/facts-figures/south-sudan/armed-groups/southern-dissident-militias/HSBA-Armed-Groups-Yau-Yau.pdf> - David Yau Yau in Jonglei state<http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/facts-figures/south-sudan/armed-groups/southern-dissident-militias/HSBA-Armed-Groups-Yau-Yau.pdf> - Gabriel Tang-Ginye in Jonglei state<http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/facts-figures/south-sudan/armed-groups/southern-dissident-militias/HSBA-Armed-Groups-Tang.pdf> - Peter Gadet in Unity state<http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/facts-figures/south-sudan/armed-groups/southern-dissident-militias/HSBA-Armed-Groups-Gadet.pdf> Please visit the Arms and Ammunition Tracing Desk<http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures/arms-and-ammunition-tracing-desk.html>page for reports documenting weapons captured from dissident militias in 2011-12. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "South Sudan Info - The Kob" group. 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