---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Sun, Oct 6, 2013 at 12:59 PM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Sudan: the winds of change or another false dawn? To: Group <[email protected]>
1. Sudan: the winds of change or another false dawn? Sunday, October 6th, 2013 | Omar Abdullah Ismail and Lee Jay Walker Modern Tokyo Times The current crisis in Sudan appears to be an afterthought because great attention throughout the Middle East and North Africa is being focused on Egypt, Iran and Syria. It seems that death and terrorism in Iraq is deemed natural and no longer of major concern since allied forces left this nation. At the same time, the failed state in Libya is taken for granted. In other words, Colonel Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein have met their maker and now both nations can struggle to find their own way out of their respective crisis. Therefore, current events in Sudan seem to be passing the world by despite news reaching the general public. In truth, it is difficult to find any real logic to the mass media and senior international politicians. After all, with approximately two thousand people being killed in Kosovo on both sides the international community intervened and took part in the de-Christianization of this land. However, when approximately 4 million mainly black African Animists and Christians were killed by the Islamist and Arabized policies of the Khartoum government during the Second Sudan Civil War of 1983-2005; then no outside intervention despite allegations of forced starvation policies by the Arab led government(s) of this period. Of course, regional nations and powerful Western nations involved themselves during many political initiatives in Sudan but the leadership in Khartoum didn’t worry about a “Kosovo style intervention.” The above reality and the brutal war in Darfur and in other parts of modern Sudan is further evidence that political elites in Khartoum can sit tight. After all, when the going gets tough the “international reach” will not threaten the central leaders of this nation. The same applies to other parts of the world with a prime example being Myanmar (Burma) where many mainly Christian ethnic groups have been fighting central forces for decades. Of course, geopolitics is a clear factor in this reality but Sudan in the past was a gateway in the spread of militant Islamist forces to regional nations in this part of Africa. Once more the leadership in Khartoum is being questioned by the Sudanese people but the military angle remains powerful. Yet despite the security apparatus being used against the people of this nation it is clear that many desire a fresh start. Also, the endless cycle of internal wars and open manipulation of politics and religion is zapping the energy out of this nation. On top of this, you have mass unemployment, which is estimated to be hovering around 30 per cent, added to rising prices over the last two years and a depreciating currency. Therefore, this reality is forcing some Sudanese people to take up desperate measures and openly challenge the state apparatus and the current leader of this nation. The upshot of this desperation is that approximately two hundred demonstrators have been killed by security forces in the last week according to some sources – government figures are much lower. Despite this, only murmurs can be heard internationally despite the demonstrators in Sudan having genuine grievances. It therefore appears that currently major players internationally don’t have any international agenda towards this nation. In other words, while America and the European Union were collectively smarting in Egypt from their failed Muslim Brotherhood “love in;” the mass media in the West and Qatar had a free reign to picture events from a pro-Muslim Brotherhood perspective. However, when it comes to Sudan then the media circus which is openly manipulated by Gulf and Western powers is clearly in “mute mode” – despite reporting about the current crisis. This reality means that you don’t have any sensationalized headlines to whip up hatred towards the Khartoum government. Reports coming out of Sudan state that the demonstrations are limited in size and scope compared with events in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. However, this reality highlights that the current government of Sudan will use force quickly against any perceived threat. On the Deutsche Welle media website it is reported that “The latest protests broke out on Monday after a government decision to cut subsidies caused fuel prices in Sudan to virtually double overnight. The country has come under severe financial pressure since the secession of South Sudan two years ago, which saw Khartoum lose 75 percent of its crude-oil production capacity.” “The demonstrations amount to the worst unrest Sudan has experienced since al-Bashir came to power in a 1989 coup. Al-Bashir has managed to cling to power over the past 24 years despite armed rebellions and US economic sanctions, as well as an indictment issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for alleged war crimes committed in Sudan’s western Darfur region.” Khalid Tigani, the chief editor of the weekly newspaper Elaff, states that “The government faces, literally, bankruptcy due to the very difficult financial and economic crisis.” Equally alarming he continues by stating that “The economic situation will keep deteriorating.” Tigani also makes it clear that while the government may not fall immediately. It is still clear that “the process of its dismantling has started.” However, President al-Bashir in the past survived many difficult periods and he knows that losing power could lead to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. This reality means that he knows that the stake is extremely high for him personally. Therefore, it is very difficult to know if events will naturally peter out (1); if the political situation will spin out of control given the complex reality of modern Sudan in relation to many internal conflicts and the loss of income related to energy resources to South Sudan (2); if the demonstrations will grow in numbers thereby making his rule untenable (3); or if al-Bashir will implement reforms whereby other political movements partake more in the decisions of government albeit under the ruling party (4). It appears that the majority of analysts believe that the number one option is currently the most likely outcome. This is based on the reality that the numbers of people demonstrating isn’t too sizeable at the moment. Also, the people of Sudan know that al-Bashir will use force quickly. Yet in the past energy resources could buffet difficult economic periods in the most built up areas of Sudan. However, this time Khartoum and other powerful areas also appear more vulnerable because of the loss of revenue to South Sudan after the division of this country. In other words, the economic factor is much greater than in the past within the power base of Khartoum. Therefore, while internal wars unleashed many pitfalls for al-Bashir and the people of Sudan, the central areas of power remained under firm control despite many periods of discontent. Given this reality, it is difficult to predict the current situation but it is clear that al-Bashir faces new threats to his grip on power. http://moderntokyotimes.com/2013/10/06/sudan-the-winds-of-change-or-another-false-dawn/ END1 2. Sudan secret agent admits in court that police gave orders to shoot at demonstrators KHARTOUM | 3 Oct Radio Dabanga An officer of the secret police in Khartoum admitted today, Thursday, in court that he received orders from the police high command to fire on demonstrators with live ammunition. Sergeant Hafiz Mohamed Abdallah confirmed to the judges of Haj Yousif Court that he had to use live bullets to quell the protests against the hike of fuel prices. According to doctors, about 210 people were killed during the demonstrations over the past few days. The secret agent confirmed the accusation that police officers dressed in civil clothes fired on people with live ammunition. Agents had to testify during the trial of 35 demonstrators accused of violence, sabotage and assault acts on public and private property. One of the defence lawyers, Mutasim al Haj, told Radio Dabanga that the judge interrogated the secret agents: “Their testimony was extremely important. It was the first time that they officially acknowledged that the police high command ordered the shootings”. Al Haj is member of a team of 12 lawyers defending the arrested demonstrators. The court set bail for the detainees at SDG20,000 ($5,000). The remarks in court contradicted a report provided by the Minister of the Interior, Ibrahim Mahmoud Hamid. He repeated earlier remarks that the police did not stop any demonstration, but were just hunting for criminals. In a report to the Council of Ministers he blamed 'certain groups' of being responsible for the uprising. He told the media after the meeting of the Council of Ministers that 42 fuel stations were destroyed, nine pharmacies have been damaged, more than 40 buses were destroyed and two companies, five banks and two government buildings were attacked. The Minister indicated that some money was stolen, adding that most of it has been recovered. The angry mob also destroyed eight police centres, 81 smaller police road cabins, and 35 police cars were torched. The government is adhering to its account of 34 people killed, including one police officer. 'No one killed by police' The governor of Khartoum, Abdul Rahman Al Khidir, flatly denied that any of these people were shot. He said after the cabinet meeting: “Police forces have never used firearms. All of the 35 people who were killed, were killed by criminal hands”. One of the leaders of the opposition National Consensus Forces, Alshafee Khidir, called the report of the top government officials "a fabrication; a complete forgery". Speaking to Radio Dabanga he said: “If it is true that criminals have access in our city to kill people, it will make the police responsible for insecurity. The Minister should immediately step down, since he is in charge. If the governor says it was criminal hands that killed the demonstrators, I fully agree; but they were all government hands.” https://www.radiodabanga.org/node/56852 END2 3. Head of doctors’ union taken into custody by Sudanese security October 5, 2013 (KHARTOUM) - Sudan’s security forces have briefly detained the head of Sudan Doctors’ Union (SDU) Ahmed Al-Sheikh, from his office in down town Khartoum on Saturday. Al-Sheikh had earlier told several news agencies that the number of victims in the recent protests amounted to 210 deaths, pointing that those who were shot were pockmarked with bullet holes to head and chest. He added that they are keen to be present in the hospitals to treat the injured, saying that they are planning to set up two clinics in Omdurman and Khartoum north to assist the wounded. Al-Sheikh’s wife later told Al-Arabiya TV that her husband was released on Saturday night, saying that he was questioned about statements issued by the SDU calling for a general strike. Last week, violent clashes erupted between the demonstrators and security forces in different parts of the Sudan following the government’s decision to remove fuel subsidies leading to at least 34 deaths according to official figures and more than a 200 according to activists, opposition, and human rights organizations. Sudanese authorities say they have arrested 700 people in connection with the riots, but denied using live ammunition against protesters, accusing outside elements of firing at demonstrators. This week a journalist has infuriated the interior minister Ibrahim Mahmoud Hamid, the governor of Khartoum state Abdel-Rahman Al-Khidir and the information minister Ahmed Bilal Osman when he accused them of insisting on “lying” with regard to the killing of protestors. The journalist, Buhram Abdel-Moniem, who works for Al-Youm Al-Tali daily newspaper, snatched a question in the lively broadcasted press conference held by the government officials on Monday and addressed the podium saying “Why do you insist on lying?”, and continued “All evidence prove that protestors were killed by bullets fired by the militias of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP)”. Abdel-Moniem said he was arrested afterwards and taken for questioning by National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) agents and later released. Furthermore, more than two dozen said in a memo addressed to president Omer Hassan al-Bashir appeared to accuse government of deliberately targeting protestors by shooting them. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article48329 END3 4. Sudan’s ruling party showing fresh signs of rebellion against Bashir October 5, 2013 (KHARTOUM) - Several figures within Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) who signed a memo last week calling for the cancellation of recent cuts in subsidies and an end to the bloody crackdown on protesters, refused to appear before a commission of inquiry formed by the party. The economic measures triggered some of the worst protests Sudan has seen in years, with the death toll surpassing 200 according to Amnesty International. The memo, which was sent to president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir and initially signed by 31 NCP members, criticised the government’s decision to remove subsidies on fuel and other basic commodities, saying it “harshly” impacted on Sudanese citizens. The signatories, who included former presidential adviser Ghazi Salah Al-Deen Al-Attabani and MP Aisha Al-Ghabashawi, said parliament had not been consulted over the latest economic measures, which were opposed by sections of the NCP. “Alternatives [to lifting subsidies] were proposed by individuals, experts and political forces but the substitutes were given no consideration and the government insisted on implementing the measures as they are indifferent to their impact and the extent of citizens’ ability to endure them”, said the memo. The head of the NCP organisational sector, Hamid Sideeg, announced on Friday that his party has formed a committee chaired by national assembly speaker Ibrahim Al-Tahir to query those whose names appeared in the petition that was circulated publicly. Reliable sources told Sudan Tribune that Ghazi, Ghabashawi and several other signatories refused to appear before the party’s commission of inquiry, pointing that out that the body has no legal basis. The same sources asserted that the group, known for their reformist agenda, would step up its rhetoric against the party’s dominant group if it continued to implement policies harmful to the Islamic Movement (IM), which is considered the ideological arm of the NCP. Sources close to Al-Attabani denied rumours that he has been detained or put under house arrest, citing a social visit he made to the Naima area in White Nile state on Friday before returning to his home in Khartoum North. Disputes within the NCP escalated against the background of divergent positions on the public protests which have lasted for two weeks. One senior source told Sudan Tribune that a meeting at the NCP’s leadership office last Thursday saw a sharp confrontation between president Bashir and three of the memo’s signatories. The source said that Al-Attabani and Ghabashawi had outlined the reformists’ vision and criticised the government’s economic measures, as well as its response to the protests, calling for a reversal of recent cuts in subsidies and more political freedoms. Al-Attabani responded to claims by Bashir’s that the government is intending to approve a new constitution which allows political pluralism, saying the problem is that the NCP has little appetite to play by the rules. He added that past experience clearly showed that the NCP did not respect the constitution which was drafted and approved by its own institutions, saying that if the government had respected the constitution it could have prevented the war in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. The ex-head of the NCP parliamentary caucus further stressed that government institutions should abide by the laws as outlined in the constitution and take tougher action to fight corruption. One of the memo signatories, Fadl Ahmed Abdullah, told the UAE-based Sky News Arabia that they reject Bashir’s probe and described al-Tahir as “part of the problem”, saying he is not qualified to stand on the committee. The spokesperson for NCP reformists, Abdel-Ghani Ahmed Idris, told Sudan Tribune from his residence in London that the party is no longer governed by rules and regulations but the “gun”, adding that the party’s institutions function only to implement the decisions of the dominant group. He added that it has become clear that the NCP is “unreformable”, hinting to a possible split from it. The first split within the NCP took place in 1999 following a bitter power struggle between Bashir and Islamist leader Hassan Al-Turabi, with the latter subsequently ousted from his post as parliament speaker. Al-Turabi later established the Popular Congress Party (PCP) and has since been a vociferous critic of the very regime for which he orchestrated the army-backed seizure of power in 1989. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article48328 END4 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 79 832 8834 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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