Analysis of the SPLM Crisis: Which group will win the party’s leadership?
By Peter Gai Manyuon December 11, 2013 (SSNA) -- On December 10th 2013 in Juba, the Vice President of South Sudan known by the name Comrade Wani Igga also known as South Sudanese “Comedian” denied the fact that, there is no crisis within the Leadership of the ruling party (Sudan People’s Liberation Movement) following the press Conference that was organized by the first Deputy Chairperson of the party Dr Machar and his huge group that consists of seniors and experience politicians of South Sudan. And more interestingly Igga dismissed the allegations as an attempt to “mislead those not following events in the leadership”, which is confusing the huge audiences in the Republic of South Sudan. However, when you make comparison between the two groups, you will find only confusing and internal war within party that might lead to end of the ruling party and the regime. Having contextualized the political crisis behind the ruling party known by the name SPLM will lead to something else rather than allowing democratization to take place within the party leadership. Some people have taken it as a joke of the day but to the way, I have analyzed the agenda behind the scene , there might be a big problem that might either occur on the 14th of December 2013 or the other day, if am not mistaken. Individuals writers have leveled the issue as some things for regionalism which is not the case, one of the writer mentioned that, the group with Dr Machar is full of the people from Greater Upper Nile which is not the case because when you look in to the both sides of the splits, you realized people have mixed up which is good in the politics of the Republic of South Sudan. Hence looking at the group of Machar that consists of the most known liberators and political cadres of the Sudan People Liberation Movement for example ; there is Dr Machar himself, Mother of the New Nation Mama Robecca Nyadeng, Pagan Amum, Alfred Ladu Gore, Taban Deng Gai, Dr Majak Agot, Adwok Nyaba, Gier Chuong Aluong, Former Ambassador Lul Gatkuoth,Deng Alor Kuol and many more, you will find that this very group consists of people with strategies and also they have popularity from their backgrounds where they come from in the Republic of South Sudan. Each Individuals Analysis from Dr Machar Group and Mama Nyadeng Looking at someone like Dr Machar, you find that, he is most like by the entire Nuer Community globally with almost 99%, for example, you cannot decamping Machar from villages among the Nuer sub-clans and I hope most people can agree with me in this observation. And among the entire Republic of South Sudan, he is also having popularity then Mayardit himself, if you are disagreeing move to all the ten states of South Sudan, you will find my analysis is binding and most interestingly, the issue of the self-determination that Machar adopted from Hon Both Diu who was the first Member of the Parliament representing South Sudanese by then have gave him a recognition that will not be forgotten by the people of South Sudan. Looking at the person like the Mother of the Nation Nyadeng De Mabior, you find that, he was the first wife of the late Hero that sign the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the Leader of the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) until his death in helicopter crashed in 2005, the Credit of Dr John Garang is counted to her right now in the Republic of South Sudan and also she is right now moving with the people who are term as Dr John Garang ‘s “ Boys” and when you look in to Garang Boys, you find that most of them were holding very senior positions in the government of South Sudan and most of them are still working in the government of Kiir as well, looking at someone like Taban Deng Gai who was a Governor of Unity State for almost a decade, James Hoth Mai who is still a General chief of General Staff of the Sudan People Liberation Army (SPLA), Wiyai Deng Ajack the former Minister of the National Security in South Sudan, Gier Chuong Aluong former Minister of Roads and Bridges , Pieng Deng who is currently the IGP for South Sudan Police Serve and many more, you will find that, she is surrounded by a strong sons that are all strategies in South Sudan. More so, coming to someone like Alfred Ladu Gore who is like mostly by almost Equotorians in South Sudan, Ladu have 80% popularity within Central Equotoria State and he is also a senior Diplomat who knows International politics regional politics as well. And coming to Dr Adwok Nyaba and Pagan Amum, you find that these very guys have much popularity more than Dr Lam Akol Ajawin among the Chollo Intellectuals and Community as well. Looking at that simple analysis, can you tell me, that groups of Dr Machar will not succeed in their politics within SPLM? Can you tell me, that Group is not very strong then kiir Mayardit group? Individual analysis about Kiir Group and his vice Wani Igga In the group of President Kiir Mayardit, there is Kiir himself Wani Igga, Magok Rundial, Dr Anna Itto plus small fellows who lack support from their constituencies in the Republic of South Sudan. Kiir himself was a Leader of the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) from the death of the late Garang up to date and also the President for decade in the Republic of South Sudan, where there had been insecurity, corruption, tribalism and nepotism, you find that, Kiir himself have decreased his popularity among the people of South Sudan in that sense. South Sudan have been labeled as the failed state number four in the whole world due to weak leadership paralyzed by lack of good consultations and more so, South Sudan have been leveled as the third Country that is promoting corruption and tribalism based on the Transparency International research and findings globally. Coming to Comrade Wani Igga, Igga have no support from the Bari people himself, he is the man who always moved alone in the politics without backup from his Community. He had been the speaker for long time, and no single good article was pass in regard to the freedom of expression in South Sudan Legislative Assembly and he call himself a leader of people. How can you call yourself a leader of people when you don’t advocate for the wills of the people of South Sudan. He is just known of his “comedy” in South Sudan. And worse of it, he does not have any percentage from other part of the Republic of South Sudan. Analyzing Magok Rundial who is the current Speaker of the South Sudan legislative Assembly, you find that the man is only like by his family members not even the people of Koch County in Unity State; he is in the parliament based on accommodation from President, he thoughts Magok might have support from the people of Unity State which did not happen and will never happen based on what I know as the individual person. Furthermore, looking at someone like a Telar Ring Deng who always survives through deals and fake papers that were identified by the legislation in the early July this year 2013 and more so (he) Telar lack grass root based from the Atut Community of Yirol West in Lakes State. The question is; will President Kiir survive in the hand of those crooks that lack backup and good repetition from the faces of the South Sudanese Community? Combined analysis about SPLM The current Crisis of the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) that started early this year 2013, will lead to the political disintegration, instability and mistrust among the senior Members of the ruling party in the Republic of South Sudan and lastly it might affects the people of South Sudan in one way or the other. Hence looking at the way Press Conference that was organized on the 6th of December 2013 in Juba by the senior Members of the ruling party that include Dr Machar, Pagan Amum, Mama Robecca Nyadeng, Alfred Ladu Gore, Deng Alor, Gier Chuong Aluong, Lul Gatkuoth, John Luk, Taban Deang Gai and other dignitaries within the party, you can realized that things will not be find in South Sudan beginning from 14th of December onward. The current dissolution of the Sudan People Liberation Movement structures by the Chairperson of the party and the President of the Republic of South Sudan, General Salva Kiir Mayardit had caused insecurity, mistrust and lack of Integrity and Transparency within the party itself. Analysis about South Sudan The issue of Kuarmidit in Nuer Language, Benydit in Dinka Language, Uthur Maduong in Lou Language, Matad among the Bari speakers will increase problems in South Sudan, every one want to be a leader when he/she lack intellectual dynamism, good leadership approaches him/her. What a confusing situation is South Sudan heading to? Key Recommendations: The two groups should come together and find the solution regarding the leadership crisis within the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) party because fulling robs will lead to serious crisis that might take South Sudan up to square one again, which no one wishes because war is not good for the same people who are known of the blackness and other identities. President Mayardit who is also the Chairperson of the party should really look at the South Sudanese people views over the convention of the party, most people are demanding for the election of the party leadership with a vigor and ululations. Vice President Comrade Wani Igga should not use words that lack legitimacy when he is addressing the public’s because his repetition is low among the people of South Sudan at whole, he thoughts whatever he say is good but analytically, he always digress from the realities and facts. Conclusion The way I have viewed the two groups that are trying to fight over the party leadership, they might not reached the last agreement from the both parties ,therefore I think the almighty, God of the Earth and Heaven should look for good way to solve thing very ironical issue so that South Sudanese should stay in peace and harmony. The author is Independent Journalist and a Columnist, who had written articles extensively with South Sudan News Agency and Juba Monitor Newspaper daily on the issues of Democracy and Human Rights; you can contact him through; [email protected] . 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