Timeline of Recent Intra-Southern Conflict This timeline can also be downloaded in PDF form here<http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/facts-figures/south-sudan/HSBA-South-Sudan-Conflict-Timeline.pdf> .
*June 2013--*South Sudan President Salva Kiir orders the dismissal or forcible retirement of some 170 Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) top officers. Most had opposed the abandonment of their former Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) comrades-in-arms. Kiir also deprives Vice-President Riek Machar of his interim powers, preventing him from assuming power if the presidency became vacant, and suspends two key ministers: Deng Alor, John Garang's former right-hand man during the war years and later second vice-president of South Sudan, and Kosti Manibe, minister of finance and economic planning. Both are charged with corruption. *22 July*--In contrast to previous official government statements, Riek Machar announces that the Southern government has decided to support the unilateral referendum on Abyei. The government immediately rescinds this statement. *23 July--*Kiir fires Riek Machar along with the entire presidential cabinet. SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum is also 'temporarily suspended.' Pagan had been the prime mover in the pipeline cut-off in January 2012 and is known as a hardliner against Khartoum. *Late July*--Kiir suspends the governors of Lakes state, Chuol Tong Mayay, and Unity state, Taban Deng Gai, on charges of corruption. Mayay and Gai, as well as the ministers suspended in June, are high-ranking SPLM member engaged in various disputes with the president. Deng Alor is angry at Kiir's 'laissez-faire' attitude on Abyei, Pagan Amum is hostile over the oil pipeline deal and at the abandonment of SPLM-North, and Taban Deng Gai is a supporter of Machar. All had announced their intentions to either stand against Kiir in the 2015 presidential elections or to support his opponent. *1* *August*--Kiir announces a new cabinet of technocrats without substantial political experience, and including well-known friends of Khartoum such as Telar Ring Deng, Riek Gai, and Abdallah Nhial Deng. *2 August*--Kiir solemnly promises Khartoum to stop all aid to SPLM-North, which he has always denied providing. *7 August*--A parliamentary vote rejects Kiir's nomination of Telar Ring Deng, the best-known pro-Khartoum politician, as minister of justice, the first time this has ever occurred. *23 August--*Salva appoints James Wani Igga, president of parliament, to the vice-presidency. He is confirmed three days later. *Late August and early September*--Several meetings between the Sudanese National Intelligence and Security Services and South Sudan's Secret Service take place in Khartoum. Former Secret Service boss Edward Lino, who with Machar had supported the Dinka-organized Abyei referendum, had been fired. The new Southern Secret Service is more accommodating to Kiir. *3 September-*Kiir flies to Khartoum to finalize the agreement concerning the cutting off of support to the SPLM-N and to confirm the 27 September 2012 oil agreement. *11 September*--The chairman of South Sudan's Bureau of Statistics, Isaiah Chuol Aruai, declares that as long as his office has no money there will be no census and that, without a census, there can be no elections in 2015. *13 September*--Kiir appoints rejected minister of justice appointee Telar Ring Deng to the post of special judiciary advisor. *November--*Sudanese President Omar al Bashir flies to Juba to cement the final implementation of the 27 September 2012 oil agreement, demanding terms for the progressive pay-as-you-go disbursement of the USD 3 billion special compensation fund. The compensation money was included in the agreement but no timetable had been set for its disbursement. This new agreement raises the transit fee from some USD 10 to around USD 33 per barrel of crude transiting through the pipeline (the exact figure remains secret). By agreeing to this demand, Kiir gains a closer relation with Bashir but loses bargaining power. *6 December*--The loose opposition comes together and holds a press conference to announce a large public rally on 13 December. The Catholic archbishop pleads with Machar and Rebecca Nyangdeng to wait and negotiate. *12 December*--The rally is postponed for a week and a meeting of the SPLM National Liberation Council (NLC), the party's highest decision-making body composed of about 150 SPLM leaders from across South Sudan, is called to discuss issues of leadership, the constitution, and codes of conduct. *13-14 December*--The NLC meets but does not reach any conclusion on whether to approve the party's draft documents, including the constitution, in their current form, and cannot reach an agreement to amend the existing documents. *15 December*--The NLC meeting reconvenes but Kiir orders Major General Marial Ciennoung, commander of the presidential guards, to disarm the guards in the barracks at Bilpam. The Dinka elements are immediately and secretly re-armed, but the Nuer are not. Ciennoung's second in command, a Nuer, physically assaults him, witnessed by the Nuer gaurds, who break into the armoury and re-arm themselves. The two groups clash. *16 December*--Eleven senior government officials are arrested. These are: Majak d'Agoot, Oyai Deng Ajak, Deng Alor, Gier Chuang Aluong, Pagan Amum, Ezechiel Gatkwoth, Cirino Hiteng, John Luk Jok, Chol Tong Magay, Kosti Manibe, Madut Biar Yel. Machar flees northwards after fights in which all of his bodyguards were killed or captured (and later executed). Presidential guard recruits kill Nuer civilians in Juba over the next two days while Nuer insurgents kill smaller numbers of Dinka civilians in Bor town, where the SPLA 8th Division commander Peter Gadet, the former rebel commander tasked with suppressing David Yau Yau's forces, re-joins the opposition. *18 December*--Gadet takes control of the two main military camps of Pan Pandiar and Malual Chaat, Jonglei, capturing artillery and about thirty tanks in the process. Of his 13,000 troops, about 9,000 mostly Nuer join the mutiny and attack the quarters where Dinka soldiers were cantoned. *19 December*--SPLA opposition forces two Indian UN peacekeepers in an attack on a United Nations compound in Bor. *24 December*--Pro-Kiir forces retake Bor, freeing a large number of IDPs who had taken refuge in the UNMISS compound. After Ugandan combat helicopters attack the town during the battle, the US Osprey helicopters that were trying to rescue displaced persons were fired upon by Gadet's men, who mistook them for Ugandan crafts. Four US personnel are wounded in the incident. Further north, pro-Machar forces capture Malakal. *27 December*--Ugandan Sukhoi Su-30 jets begin to bomb Bor in the hope of clearing it from former 8th Division soldiers, without much success. Using 23 mm guns, the SPLA opposition down two Mil Mi-24 combat helicopters that accompanied the jets. On the same day, at a meeting of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Nairobi, the mediation team orders Machar to come to the negotiation table within four days 'or else the region would have to resort to other measures', according to Ugandan President Museveni. Museveni continues to deny that his troops are engaged in combat in South Sudan, saying that the Ugandan People's Defence Force (UPDF) has only limited forces in Juba, where they are tasked with evacuating Ugandan nationals from the country. *29 December*--Pro-government forces reoccupy Malakal. *30 December*-- Pro-government forces re-take Bor. *31 December*--Peace talks start in Addis Ababa but quickly hit a difficulty when Machar demands the immediate release of the detained former members of government. *1 January*--Former SPLA forces loyal to Machar retake Bor and start marching down to Gemmeiza, said to be accompanied (or preceded) by 25,000 Nuer 'White Army' under their Prophet Dak Kueth. Most of this force withdraw eastwards from the battlefield while some 3,000-4,000 of its young men join Riek's forces. *2 January*--The conflict broadens considerably when pro-Kiir forces try to counter-attack but are defeated at Gemmeiza. The president, trying to gather more forces in Juba, asks garrisons from Nzara, Morobo, and Yeï to send men to the capital. Instead, most mutiny and join the rebellion, but in an uncoordinated way, notifying Machar only afterwards. Limited fighting develops in Maridi (the anti-Lord's Resistance Army contingent coming from Nzara) and in Yei. Meanwhile, Equatorian politician Alfred Lado Gore, who had managed to flee Juba, starts to raise guerrillas among the Bari, the Madi, and the Pojulu. *4 January*--A large SPLA column, accompanied by a river column along the Nile, leaves Juba for Bor. Both forces are ambushed at Pariak 35 km south of Bor. The result is a disaster for the governmental force: General Abraham Deng is killed and the column suffers heavy losses. *5 January*--Ugandan President Museveni sends significant (2,500-5,000) reinforcements to South Sudan, still denying that he has any combat troops there. Some of these troops are involved in still another attempt at counter-attacking towards Bor but have to withdraw back to Juba after suffering fairly important losses. Following these successive government and UPDF defeats, by 7 January Machar's forces reach all the way south to Rejaf, just across the Nile from Juba. Meanwhile, the Central Equatorian oppostion take up positions directly south of the capital while Malakal is been retaken by pro-Machar forces. *7 January*--Rebel leader David Yau Yau signs an armistice with the government while some of his men attack the eastern Lou Nuer areas now largely empty of White Army fighters after many joined Machar's forces. Anti-Yau Yau Murle elders send a delegation to Addis Ababa in order to dissociate themselves from the former rebel now turned ally to Kiir. On the same day, Sudanese President Bashir arrives in Juba and declares that he is ready to negotiate the creation of a joint SPLA-Sudanese army force to secure the oilfields. The next day he denies having made this proposal; later his government renews the offer (18 January) before denying it again (20 January). *10 January*--Central Equatoria Governor Martin Kenyi and the governors of Western and Eastern Equatoria meet and declare their unwavering support for Kiir. In parallel, they start recruiting local militias among the Mundari (Kenyi's tribe) as well as among the locally displaced Dinka near Nimule. This is a countermeasure to Alfred Lado Gore's anti-Kiir militias recruitment. Madi elders tried to proclaim their neutrality. *11 January*--International envoys (IGAD, the European Union, and the United States) go to South Sudan to meet Machar, asking him to sign a cessation of hostilities declaration. He refuses as long as the eleven detainees are not freed; he also tightens his circle of forces around Juba after defeating another attempt of the government troops to retake Bor. *14 January*--The Ugandan parliament tries to debate sending of new troops to South Sudan but is prevented from doing so by Defence Minister Crispus Kiyonga. *16 January*--President Museveni finally admits the presence of Ugandan combat troops in South Sudan, just as UPDF reinforcements, supported by strong air cover (four helicopters and four jets), start to move north again, re-taking Bor on the afternoon of 18 January. Contrary to the government's declaration, the force that re-took Bor included less that 20% SPLA troops, the rest being UPDF. *20 January*--The government attacks Malakal with new troops from two different sides; Malik Agar's SPLM-N troops (mainly Maban Muslims) from the north, and Johnson Olony's South Sudan Democratic Movement/Army (SSDM/A) from the East. Nuer Acting Upper Nile Governor Garoth Gatkwoth is absent, having gone to the eastern counties to turn off the oil pipelines. The combined force of SPLM-N and SSDM/A retake Malakal, but not completely. There is still much fighting in and around the town, accompanied by civilian killings: the pro-government forces are killing Nuer indiscriminately, including those who had taken refuge in a church, while Nuer peasants in surrounding villages organize to kill all Shilluks to punish them for Johnson Olony's attack. *23 January--*Cessation of hostilities agreement signed between the government and the opposition in Addis Ababa. Neither of the two key points being negotiated (the release of the eleven detainees in Juba and the evacuation of the Ugandan forces) receives any definitive resolution, both being treated as matters of 'intention'. *24 January*--Light skirmishes in Bor. Government troops attack from Bentiu and Malakal, pushing towards the oil-producing areas. *26 January--*UPDF troops reach Malakal, causing serious concern both in Addis Ababa and Khartoum over Kampala's ultimate strategic aims. *29 January--*Seven of the eleven detainees--Deng Alor, Gier Chong Aluong, Cirino Hiteng, John Luk, Chol Tong Magay, Kosti Manibe, and Madut Biar Yel--are released with the support of Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who received them in Nairobi. Majak d'Agoot, Oyai Deng Ajak, Pagan Amum, and Ezekiel Gatkwoth, remain in South Sudanese custody. In Addis Ababa, Norwegian foreign minister Borge Brende calls on Uganda to begin to reduce and ultimately withdraw the UPDF from South Sudan. Updated 30 January 2014 ----- Original Message ----- *From:* Small Arms Survey <[email protected]> *To:* [email protected] *Sent:* Thursday, January 30, 2014 5:15 PM *Subject:* The Intra-Southern Conflict of 2013-14: Update from the Small Arms Survey Please click on the link below for the latest update from the Small Arms Survey's Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) for Sudan and South Sudan: *Timeline of the Intra-Southern Conflict of 2013-14 (30 January 2014)* A timeline of events from the dismissal or forced retirement of 170 senior SPLA officers in June 2013 to the release on 29 January 2014 of 7 of the 11 senior politicians arrested in December. Includes details of military engagements between the dissenting forces and the SPLA, assisted by the UPDF, over Bentiu, Bor, and Malakal. http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures/south-sudan/conflict-of-2013-14/timeline-of-events.html <http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=51702634&msgid=494329&act=L18Q&c=1083900&destination=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.smallarmssurveysudan.org%2Ffacts-figures%2Fsouth-sudan%2Fconflict-of-2013-14%2Ftimeline-of-events.html> For more HSBA Facts & Figures, visit: smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures-latest-updates.php<http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=51702634&msgid=494329&act=L18Q&c=1083900&destination=smallarmssurveysudan.org%2Ffacts-figures-latest-updates.php> For questions, comments on content, or feedback, contact: Jonah Leff Project Coordinator HSBA for Sudan and South Sudan Small Arms Survey [email protected] - Follow the HSBA on facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Human-Security-Baseline-Assessment-for-Sudan-and-South-Sudan-HSBA/194808597217645<http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=51702634&msgid=494329&act=L18Q&c=1083900&destination=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpages%2FHuman-Security-Baseline-Assessment-for-Sudan-and-South-Sudan-HSBA%2F194808597217645> - Follow the HSBA on twitter: https://twitter.com/SudanHSBA - Subscribe to receive email updates on HSBA findings: www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/publications/sign-up-for-new-publications.html<http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=51702634&msgid=494329&act=L18Q&c=1083900&destination=%20%20%20%20www.smallarmssurveysudan.org%2Fpublications%2Fsign-up-for-new-publications.html> NB Some readers have reported that their firewall blocks links from these messages. 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