The Two Sudans: Problems are linked - so are solutions

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By David L. Phillips and Ahmed Hussain Adam

February 5, 2014 - Sudan and South Sudan are a revolving door of deadly
conflicts. Comprehensive and sustainable peace can only be achieved through
parallel steps affecting conditions in both countries. Managing crisis in
one while neglecting the other is a stop-gap. If problems are linked, so
are solutions.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), with help from the
United States, mediated the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005.
The CPA ended the civil war between the North and South, which lasted 22
years and killed more than 2.5 million people while displacing more than 5
million. It guaranteed the people of South Sudan a right to
self-determination, including an option to remain a part of Sudan, and a
timetable for conducting a referendum on South Sudan's status.

Humiliated by the loss of South Sudan's oil-rich territories, Sudan's
President Omar al-Bashir attacked Darfur in 2003. What started as a
distraction from Sudan's other problems turned into a brutal genocide,
killing more than 300,000 people and displacing over 3 million.

The international community reacted to events in Darfur. The United Nations
and African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) was established in 2007 as the
world body's largest peacekeeping operation in history. The World Food
Program and other aid agencies undertook a massive relief operation. The
International Criminal Court (ICC) indicted Bashir for genocide, war crimes
and crimes against humanity. Americans mobilized to save Darfur through
grass-roots activities, raising awareness and demanding action by the U.S.
Government.

The international community pivoted its focus back to South Sudan when 99%
of its people voted for independence in January 2011. Diplomatic and
financial resources were redirected to the huge task of stabilizing South
Sudan, the world's newest nation.

Bashir responded by intensifying Sudan's military campaign in Darfur,
indiscriminately targeting marginalized groups in South Kordofan, Blue
Nile, and the Nuba Mountains. All the while, Bashir was taking steps to
undermine South Sudan's sovereignty. Bashir believed he could control a
weakened South Sudan and, by dividing its leadership, gain commercial
advantage.

What started as a power struggle between South Sudan's ruling elite erupted
into a full-blown ethnic war on December 15, 2013. The conflict, which
caused enormous human suffering to the entire population, pitted the Dinka
of President Salva Kiir against the Nuer of former Vice President Reik
Machar. The international community responded urgently to the crisis. U.S.
Special Envoy Ambassador Donald Booth played a critical role negotiating a
cessation of hostilities.

With international attention focused on the latest crisis in South Sudan,
Bashir predictably intensified operations against Darfur. Like 2009, when
Bashir threw out 13 international aid agencies, Bashir ordered the
International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to suspend operations and
leave Darfur. He will make sure there is no witness to his latest crimes.

Bashir is also massacring the people of South Kordofan and Blue Nile.
Piqued by an alliance of armed movements who fought last summer to defend
marginalized groups across the country, his latest offensive is an effort
to punish innocent civilians. Manyinnocent civilians in Sudan have recently
lost their lives or have been driven from their homes in Darfur, South
Kordofan and Blue Nile. Millions of non-combatants are in urgent need of
food, shelter and medicine.

After decades of violent conflict, effective international engagement must
focus on multi-track and parallel efforts to achieve comprehensive peace
and democratic transformation in Sudan and South Sudan.

South Sudan cannot be allowed to fail. Billions have been spent developing
its infrastructure and governance. South Sudan's implosion would have
staggering regional implications.

At the same time, the world must take steps to end Darfur's tragedy and
prevent the killing of other Sudanese. Genocide is still unfolding under
UNAMID's nose. UNAMID is more engaged in force protection and meddling in
flawed peacemaking activities than protecting civilians. Its monitoring and
reporting capabilities are extremely limited. Darfur is like a black box;
UNAMID cannot control conditions on-the-ground, and there is no real-time
reporting on events.

The UN Security Council needs to bolster UNAMID. To this end, UNAMID needs
credible leadership and a broader protection mandate to safeguard
civilians. It also needs better trained and equipped peacekeepers. An
enhanced early warning, monitoring, and reporting system would help
identify crises before deadly violence spirals out of control.

Bashir's appointment of General Mustafa al-Dabi, as his representative to
IGAD, sends a worrisome signal. General al-Dabi is known for crimes against
the people of Darfur, as well as divide-and-rule tactics when he served as
deputy chief of staff for military operations of the Sudan's Armed Forces
(1996-1999), and as Bashir's representative in Darfur (1999-2004). He also
performed dismally acting as the Arab League's chief human rights observer
in Syria in 2011.

The five-year anniversary of Bashir's indictment by the ICC is March 4,
2014. Bashir must not be allowed to murder with impunity. Member states
must demand accountability, and political transition. Bashir is maneuvering
to buy time and stay in power, while dragging the country into another
rigged election in 2015, as he did in April 2010.

Sudan and South Sudan have reached a fork in the road. Down one path lies
reform, peace and progress. Down the other lies more deadly conflict and
state disintegration. After so many years of war, the peoples of Sudan and
South Sudan deserve peace, justice and democracy.

*David L. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights
at Columbia University's Institute for the Study of Human Rights (ISHR) and
Ahmed Hussain Adam is a Visiting Scholar at ISHR. They co-chair the Two
Sudans Project.*

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