---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Mon, Feb 17, 2014 at 8:56 AM Subject: [sudans-john-ashworth] Dr Riek Machar speaking "in the bush" To: Group <[email protected]>
"Mr Machar's appeal for help from the international community could backfire as it also exposes his isolation and vulnerability. Observers say he lacks the military hardware to hold territory. While he may have tacit diplomatic support from the US... it is unlikely he will obtain military backing." It could be added that he has virtually no support within South Sudan except from some elements of his own community; virtually every other community has turned against him, more so after the actions of the White Army in Malakal and Bor. While there is criticism of President Salva Kiir, the majority of South Sudanese appear to have rejected violence as a means of changing the government. The feeling on the ground is that even if President Salva were to step down, Dr Riek is not the person to replace him, and indeed that his rebellion and the actions of his followers call into question even the possibility of him sharing power. John BEGIN South Sudanese rebel leader appeals for international support February 13, 2014 7:25 pm By Katrina Manson in Nairobi The leader of South Sudan's rebels has called for international support to oust Ugandan forces from the country, saying their presence violates a ceasefire reached last month between the government and the rebels. Uganda has been criticised for failing to redeploy the forces it sent into South Sudan in support of embattled incumbent President Salva Kiir, despite it being a key condition of a shaky ceasefire agreement signed with rebels last month. Washington is among those calling for Uganda "to pull back". Riek Machar, a former vice-president turned rebel leader, said Uganda was a threat to regional peace. "I need support to expel the Ugandans," Mr Machar told the Financial Times by satellite phone, saying he was speaking "in the bush". "The rest of the world is beginning to see the point that Uganda is a menace in the region; Uganda will bring regional conflict," he said. A close aide to Mr Machar said his side was looking for a "godfather" to send in military equipment, although both he and Mr Machar declined to name a potential backer. The Ugandan military has claimed that its soldiers, supported by heavy equipment, have single-handedly recaptured some key towns from the rebels. The South Sudan crisis erupted in Juba, the capital, in December after a fallout between Mr Kiir and Mr Machar, his sacked deputy, led to clashes between rival army factions that quickly split the country in two. Mr Machar, who at the time was canvassing support for a presidential bid, says Mr Kiir erroneously accused him of plotting a coup to disguise his own "dictatorial tendencies". Regional and international mediators brokered a ceasefire in early January, but since then sporadic fighting has continued. Thousands have been killed and close to 1m displaced by the conflict, which has also disrupted oil production. The two sides returned to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa earlier this week for further peace talks, but ending the civil war in the world's newest country has so far proved beyond the efforts of regional and global diplomacy. The continuous fighting could reignite a historic faultline between Uganda and Sudan - another regional military heavyweight and from which South Sudan seceded in 2011 following decades of war. Although both countries are publicly backing Mr Kiir, tension between the two has been growing. Ali Karti, Sudan's foreign minister, has publicly urged Yoweri Museveni, Ugandan president, to withdraw from South Sudan. "We hope the Ugandan forces will withdraw without endangering the agreement of peace . . . this matter should be addressed," he said in an interview, adding: "Mr Museveni has promised before so many times that he will not support any negative forces of Sudan." Sam Kutesa, Uganda's foreign minister, said ahead of the resumption of this week's peace talks that his country had no plans to withdraw its troops from South Sudan. Mr Machar's appeal for help from the international community could backfire as it also exposes his isolation and vulnerability. Observers say he lacks the military hardware to hold territory. While he may have tacit diplomatic support from the US, which has rejected Mr Kiir's claims of a coup, alongside supporters in Sudan and possibly Ethiopia and Eritrea, it is unlikely he will obtain military backing. Nevertheless, Mr Machar has also shown his forces can still attack major towns and bring oil production to a stop. As a veteran bush fighter during the decades of war against the Sudanese government, he is also prepared to sit out the fight. Analysts say no peace deal can succeed without bringing him into the fold. Regional mediators have floated the idea of an interim government or power-sharing between Mr Kiir and Mr Machar, but the rebel leader expressed scepticism. "Power sharing with Salva Kiir? I don't know; I question that," he said. on.ft.com/1bt9kW9 END ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 79 832 8834 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52662 - 00100, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. 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