---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Thu, Feb 20, 2014 at 6:43 PM Subject: [sudans-john-ashworth] Despite Truce, Malakal Under Attack Again To: Group <[email protected]>
1. South Sudan talks continue amid violence The cases of political detainees remain a sticking point in negotiations, says South Sudan's foreign minister. Richard Nield Last updated: 20 Feb 2014 08:33 Al Jazeera Three weeks after a ceasefire agreement was signed on January 23, there are few signs that newly resumed peace talks are likely to bring an end to a conflict in South Sudan that has already claimed thousands of lives and displaced an estimated 800,000 people. The government of South Sudan will not release four political opponents from detention in Juba until the conclusion of the judicial process, according to foreign minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin. The government has also resisted calls for the withdrawal of Ugandan troops, and is unwilling to accommodate the return to the administration of its political opponents. The release of the four detainees, who include the suspended secretary-general of the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), Pagan Amum, remains a key sticking point in the peace negotiations with opposition forces, which resumed in Addis Ababa on February 11. In late January, the government released seven of the 11 political detainees held for their alleged involvement in what it claims was an attempted coup in mid-December. The seven released detainees have agreed to participate in peace negotiations as a neutral third party allied neither to the government nor the SPLM in opposition. "I didn't understand their decision," said Riek Machar in an interview with Sudan Tribune on February 16. "We only differ in the armed resistance. Their decision doesn't help the cause, but it is their choice." Confusingly, the ministry of justice said that despite a lack of evidence to charge the seven men, they have been released on bail. "If there is more evidence going to come up they can still be questioned," said Benjamin. The investigation into the remaining four detainees is ongoing, said Benjamin: "Once the investigation is complete and there is an indication that the evidence... qualifies them to be released they will equally be released, and that is the message of the president." Pardon possibility? The four men face charges of treason, along with three others not in detention, including former vice president Riek Machar, the nominal leader of the opposition, and Taban Deng, the lead negotiator for the opposition at the Addis peace talks. "If they are found guilty, of course there is a law they will be sentenced," said Benjamin. "If there is not any evidence they will be released." Under South Sudanese law, if convicted of treason, the seven men face the death penalty. President Salva Kiir may choose to pardon the men, but only at the conclusion of the judicial process, said Benjamin. Few analysts believe that the government has any basis for the charges against those who remain detained. "They were picked up by the government straight away - they were having tea," said a former international negotiator in talks between Sudan and South Sudan. "I can tell you one thing about a coup, and that's that you don't sit around afterwards having tea." The South Sudan government is under considerable international pressure to release those detained. In an agreement on the detainees signed on January 23, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, the mediator of the talks, declared that the organisation and its partners are "firmly committed to undertake every effort to expedite the release of the detainees". In early February, the US state department also called for their release. But there is a clear sense that the government is using the detainees as a bargaining tool in the peace talks as a means of avoiding further concessions if and when substantive talks get underway. "The four detainees that remain in detention is a clear violation of the spirit of the [January 23 ceasefire] agreement," said the former negotiator. "There is no need to wait for a pardon, the president can grant an amnesty, and the ministry of justice has the power to stop an invesigation. The government is trying to disqualify these people from a political career." The peace talks were delayed from their scheduled resumption on February 7 as the opposition threatened to boycott their resumption pending the resolution of the detainees issue and commitments on the withdrawal of Ugandan forces stationed in the country. But, as with the ceasefire talks in January, the SPLM in opposition dropped its preconditions having received assurances from IGAD that their grievances would be addressed during the talks. Benjamin conceded that the negotiating parties could mandate the release of the detainees "if that decision is taken by the peace process... and if the government has inserted its signature on whatever it is that has been decided". But the foreign minister offered little hope that the government is prepared to make concessions on the withdrawal of Ugandan forces, or even to acknowledge the extent of their participation in the conflict. Despite widespread reports of Ugandan military support as far north as Malakal in Upper Nile state, the minister insists that they have not played a combat role in the crisis. "There were no Ugandan forces in Malakal and [Unity state capital] Bentiu," he said. The minister was evasive over reports that the Ugandan air force has provided support to the government in its campaign against rebel forces. "By international law you can have bilateral agreements with friendly countries," he said. "We have a memorandum of understanding which we signed with the Ugandan government... We are co-operating with them in so many areas." On February 14, South Sudan's defence minister, Kuol Manyang Juok, admitted in an interview with the local Eye radio that the government is "footing the bill" for the involvement of Ugandan forces in operations linked to the internal conflict. Thousands displaced Despite the ceasefire agreement on January 23, there have been independent reports of violations by both sides. On January 30, staff of Doctors Without Borders (MSF), an international medical aid organisation, evacuated a hospital in Leer in Unity state citing "ongoing insecurity" that had "forced thousands of people into the bush". MSF did not specify who was responsible for attacks on the town, the birthplace of Riek Machar, but a rebel statement claimed that government forces "advanced on Leer town on February 1 destroying everything in their path". Fighting resumed in Malakal in Upper Nile state on February 18, according to Toby Lanzer, UN Humanitarian Co-ordinator in South Sudan. Philip Jiben, a spokesman for the Upper Nile state government, confirmed that Malakal has come under attack from rebel forces, but denied opposition claims that the town has been wrested from government control. Benjamin attributed the ceasefire breaches to Riek Machar's lack of "command and control" over opposition forces, but also admitted that the government did not always have mastery of its own troops. The massacre of Nuer civilians in Juba in December "was carried out by indisciplined troops who took their own agenda within the government forces", he said. "There's a belief that there's a military solution to the problem, but there isn't," said Annette Weber, head of the Middle East and Africa research division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. "It's a political and institutional problem." IGAD began the deployment of ceasefire monitors on February 2, but there is little hope that the 18 monitors promised by the January 23 ceasefire agreement can bring an end to the fighting. "We need a minimum of 60-70 people to have an effective monitor," said Benjamin. In addition to the implementation of ceasefire monitoring mechanisms, peace talks in Addis Ababa are also expected to address "relief assistance" and "the political solution to the problem," said the minister. A political solution, though, seems as far away as ever. The government remains unwilling to consider a political accommodation with opposition figures in the SPLM. "I cannot say people can be brought back," said Benjamin. "If you are fighting because you want to get your job, I don't think that is the proper political solution. That is to have a proper democratic process, where leadership of army, party, government is elected on a democratic basis." Benjamin also ruled out the resignation of President Salva Kiir for the sake of a peaceful settlement. "Why would he step aside? He was elected leader with 93 percent. If there are others who want to challenge him, then they will have to do so in 2015." The ambitions of Machar and Kiir remain a fundamental stumbling block to the eventual success of the talks. "Riek Machar's goal is to become president of South Sudan and Salva Kiir doesn't want to leave power," said Peter Biar Ajak, director of the Centre for Strategic Analyses and Research in Juba. "The president wants to use the system as much as possible to stay in power. These things are difficult to reconcile." Kiir has been widely criticised for his authoritarian approach to the governmment of South Sudan in the past year, but in taking up arms against the government Machar has done little to enhance his own reputation. "The feeling on the ground is that even if President Salva were to step down, Dr Riek is not the person to replace him," said John Ashworth, a Juba-based analyst. "Indeed, his rebellion and the actions of his followers call into question even the possibility of him sharing power." http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/02/south-sudan-talks-continue-amid-violence-2014216123418968176.html END1 2. Despite Truce, Satellites Confirm Malakal Under Attack Again February 19, 2014 | Satellite Sentinel Project New Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP) imagery shows more than 535 huts in and around Malakal have been destroyed in recent clashes, in direct violation the January cessation of hostilities agreement between South Sudan's combatant forces (see Figure 1) DigitalGlobe's analysis confirms that at least 57 huts in a residential area of town were destroyed, likely as a result of renewed fighting between the South Sudanese army and the armed opposition. (see Figure 2) The destruction of another 77 huts in Malakal's market area is evident in imagery collected on February 17, and 40 percent of market stalls are visibly destroyed or severely damaged. (see Figure 3) More than 400 huts were destroyed in the east of the city. Malakal has changed hands at least twice in recent weeks, and SSP previously reported on war crimes committed in the town during the last bout of violence. DigitalGlobe Analytics review of recent imagery over Malakal, including coverage from February 12, 2014, confirms that the damage shown to civilian structures in this report occurred since that time. The safety of hundreds of thousands of civilians -- those fleeing the area, those trapped within the town, and those at a U.N. compound in Malakal -- is immediately at stake. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan compound, which currently houses 21,600 displaced persons, is now caught in the crossfire between rebel and government forces. UNMISS condemned the attacks and called on fighters to respect the inviolability of the U.N. premises, warning that the clashes would exacerbate an urgent humanitarian situation. Julia Albert-Recht, the International Medical Corps (IMC) Programme Manager in Malakal warned that "the renewed fighting is having a devastating knock-on effect for civilians in Malakal." She cautioned that continued fighting will limit IMC's doctors' ability to operate, leaving civilians in "real danger" since its doctors won't be able to " get out to help them." Albert-Recht added, "There are thousands of innocent families in Malakal who need health and nutrition assistance which they won't get because of this latest round of fighting." IMC reports that it treated over 100 people hurt in the fighting on February 18 alone. Over 56,000 displaced people are in Malakal town, but outside the protection of the U.N. base. While combatant forces battled on Malakal's streets, inter-communal clashes broke out within the U.N. camp among Nuer and Dinka displaced people. The U.N confirms that 10 people were killed as a result of the recent fighting and that many others were treated at the base hospital for injuries. A multi-ethnic city housing Shilluk, Nuer, Dinka, Bari and many other ethnic groups, Malakal has historically been a bastion of diversity. Nonetheless, as a result of the recent fighting, reports from credible sources of violence and door-to-door searches along ethnic lines are widespread. Malakal holds the key to control of South Sudan's lucrative oil fields at Paloch, which is just 90 miles away and houses an oil complex where a key crude oil processing facility is situated. As of the time of publication, there were conflicting accounts of who currently controls Malakal. (see Reuters and Voice of America, Radio Tamazuj). An aid source told France 24 and Agence France-Presse that rebels had launched a "very big, coordinated attack" and government-aligned warplanes had flown over Malakal. Enough Project's ground sources reported heavy gunfire between government forces and rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement In Opposition forces (including White Army elements) around Malakal's airport. One local ground source reports that the attack on Malakal came from the north, along the Melut - Malakal road, and that by mid-day forces had seized the airport and taken command of northern entrances to the city. Upper Nile state authorities asserted that clashes broke out at 7 a.m. in the town's northern, southern and central areas. By the SPLA's account, rebel forces aligned with Riek Machar reportedly attacked Malakal in an effort to recapture the town from the government. South Sudanese Presidential spokesman Ateny Wek Ateny claimed to the BBC that rebels were "well-equipped," using AK-47 assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, and machine guns. But the armed opposition asserts that South Sudanese government forces, with Ugandan support, attacked rebel positions in Malakal. Philip Aguer, who denies that Ugandan forces are in Malakal, alleged thar clashes were ongoing in the town. Upper Nile state officials also asserted that the government remained in control of the town and airport. The Satellite Sentinel Project has been tracking violations of the cessation of hostilities agreement since it was signed in late January. SSP previously reported on a government offensive on Leer town in Unity state. Recently, South Sudanese army Lt. General Malual Ayom Dor, who heads military operations in Jonglei, publicly confirmed another violation of the cessation of hostilities agreement, that his "forces fought [against Machar's troops] in self-defence until we managed to push them away and take control of [Gadiang]" U.N. Assistant Secretary-General and humanitarian coordinator Toby Lanzer confirmed that hostilities broke out in Malakal, and highlighted the need to protect non-combatants. Humanitarian aid organization Oxfam has said those trapped in Malakal are "very afraid" due to the fighting. An assessment by humanitarian agencies found that attacks in Malakal and the surrounding area have sent at least 10,000 people fleeing north toward Rom, a transit point for displaced people heading to Melut. In addition to local and displaced South Sudanese people caught amid violent clashes, there are also more than 125,000 Sudanese refugees from Blue Nile state, who fled fighting and attacks from the Sudanese government only to be at risk now in South Sudan's Upper Nile state. http://satsentinel.org/report/despite-truce-satellites-confirm-malakal-under-attack-again END2 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 79 832 8834 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52662 - 00100, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. 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