IGAD plus, SPLM-FD and prospects for peace in South Sudan
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By Luka Biong Deng
With repetitive disappointing deadlines for peace in South Sudan, the
peace talks have been on halt since March 2015 while IGAD tried to
review and redesign its mediation efforts. Since the collapse of peace
talks in March 2015 and with no new date for the resumption of peace
talks, the warring parties opted to escalate fighting with flagrant
violation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. This insecurity
situation has been exacerbated further by the emergence of other armed
groups in relatively stable states. The intensification of fighting
since March 2015 has caused enormous human suffering and serious
violation of human rights.
Apparently, such violations have been paradoxically committed in
presence of IGAD and UNMISS operating under Chapter VII mandate of
protecting civilians. Also these violations have been committed
despite repetitive threats by IGAD and UN Security Council of imposing
sanctions on those violating the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement or
obstructing the peace talks. This inability of international and
regional organizations to protect human lives raises fundamental
question about their efficacy and effectiveness in ensuring human
security in the world.
With the resumption of peace talks in Ethiopia under a new mediation
that involves IGAD plus South Africa, Nigeria, Rwanda, Chad and
Algeria, the IGAD has recognized its failure in providing a credible
mediation as some of its members have become directly or indirectly
involved in the current conflict in South Sudan. This new mediation
will not only bring the much-needed credibility into the process but
it will also involve all the regions of the continent into the
mediation. It remains to be seen how the new members of the mediation
would position themselves and to provide a new momentum and leadership
to the mediation rather than becoming a microcosm platform of AU
regional politics and rivalry.
Despite such delay in the resumption of peace talks, there is a
glimpse of hope that peace may be within the reach with new mediation.
The spokesperson of the government to the peace talks has been
repetitively stating “peace is around the corner”. He paradoxically
made such statements after every failed round of peace talks. As such
his statement has become synonymous with “peace is out of reach”.
Despite the challenges that may face IGAD plus-led peace mediation,
there are good reasons for optimism that peace might be around the
corner. The increased fighting between the warring parties since the
failure of peace talks in March 2015 has proven beyond any doubt that
no party will neither win this war nor defeating the other party. The
looming famine and increased food insecurity and coupled with the
alarming economic crisis facing South Sudan may convince the warring
parties that the path of war is not sustainable.
The recent diplomatic efforts by South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya and
Tanzania to resurrect and revive the implementation of the Arusha
Agreement will contribute positively to the IGAD plus-led peace
mediation. It is for the first time that all members of IGAD have seen
the synergy between Arusha and IGAD processes. President of Kenya made
it clear after the recent meeting of IGAD in Nairobi that the IGAD and
Arusha processes would be merged. This is not surprising as the coming
in of South Africa, as the main political power behind Arusha
Agreement, to IGAD made it possible for IGAD to see the
complementarity between IGAD and Arusha processes.
Interestingly, Ethiopia is now in full support of Arusha Agreement
despite its initial lukewarm stance not against the process per se but
largely because it was not engaged in the process that was first
initiated by Ethiopia. In fact Ethiopia through its special envoy to
IGAD initiated the two-track approach of peace talks; IGAD peace talks
to address national crisis and SPLM reconciliation talks to address
the crisis within the SPLM as the ruling party. The expected summit of
IGAD plus scheduled to take place in Juba on 25th June 2015 will
provide a new momentum to the peace talks. Although all members of
IGAD will be receptive to the merging of the two processes, Sudan will
be exceptionally unhappy with this move, as its political interest has
always been to see a weaker SPLM and South Sudan and total isolation
of the SPLM-FD.
With the new mediation that recognizes the complementarity between
Arusha and Addis processes, some members of Troika (UK, Norway and UK)
may need to revisit their lukewarm position towards Arusha Agreement,
particularly as they will become part of the new mediation. It would
extremely be important if Troika could help the SPLM to put its house
in order and to assist in the full implementation of Arusha Agreement.
Undoubtedly, the coming in of China to be part of the new mediation
will provide as well the much-needed role of China as it has strategic
economic interest in South Sudan.
The heroic and strategic visit by the advanced team of SPLM-FD has
created real opportunity for peace in South Sudan. This visit happened
under serious challenges as some created illusion that Juba is not
safe and others, particularly some members of SPLM leadership in Juba,
were resisting such visit as they believed SPLM-FD have hidden agenda.
Also some members in the government felt such visit as the beginning
of losing their positions in the government.
Importantly, the visit became successful because of the leadership
provided by the Chairman of SPLM, President Salva Kiir. Despite the
apparent resistance to the visit by some members of SPLM leadership in
Juba, President Salva took bold and strategic decision to allow visit
to take place. This political will shown by President Salva to reunite
SPLM reminds me of the commitment he showed during South-South
dialogue and Juba Declaration that marked the beginning of the unity
of people of South Sudan. With his decision to revoke earlier
decisions related to dismissal of some members of SPLM from their
political positions, President Salva has shown his genuine commitment
to the implementation of Arusha Agreement and reunification of the
SPLM.
Although some people argue that SPLM-FD do not have political weight,
some members of this group are not only the founding members of the
SPLM/A but contributed with distinction in the liberation struggle
that resulted in the independence of South Sudan. Equally, some
members of SPLM-FD have played a critical role in the reunification of
SPLM/A during political upheavals and split experienced by the SPLM/A
during liberation struggle. Equally, the decision by SPLM-FD not to
involve in war has put them on higher moral ground to become unifying
factor and a bridge between the SPLM warring parties. With their visit
to Juba and their expected visit to SPLM-IO, the SPLM-FD will
certainly contribute not only to building trust but also to narrowing
the differences between the warring parties on the outstanding issues
in peace talks. This strategic mission of the SPLM-FD is a homegrown
peace process and it would be more effective if they could involve the
church leaders who command overwhelming respect of people of South
Sudan.
With the new mediation, the expected role to be played by the SPLM-FD
and possibly the church leaders, the positive welcoming by SPLM-IO to
the visit of SPLM-FD to Juba, and the political will shown by SPLM
Chairman to reunify the SPLM, one may say that peace is indeed around
the corner. I hope my statement will not have the same fate of that of
the government spokesperson to the peace talks.
The author is the Director of the Centre for Peace and Development
Studies, University of Juba, Global Fellow at the Peace Research
Institute Oslo and Associate Fellow at the Carr Centre for Human
Rights Policy at Harvard Kennedy School. He is reachable at
[email protected] or [email protected]
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