*August is crunch time for South Sudan/ Institute for Security Studies 30.07.15*
Belligerents in the crisis in South Sudan have been given until 17 August 2015 to sign a final peace agreement. This follows a mini-summit with United States (US) President Barack Obama in Addis Ababa on 28 July. Meanwhile, heads of state of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) are expected to meet on South Sudan by the end of August. August is shaping up to be an important month for South Sudan’s peace talks, which have dragged on since the beginning of 2014 but have done little to halt the conflict. An important date to remember is 17 August. In his speech to the African Union (AU) on 29 July, Obama identified this as the deadline by which South Sudan’s warring factions must reach a peace deal – or else. The negotiations, led by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) with the participation of key international community actors such as the AU and the United Nations, are due to resume in Addis Ababa on 4 or 5 August, pending internal consultations by the belligerents. ‘In South Sudan, the joy of independence has descended into the despair of violence. Neither [President] Salva Kiir nor [opposition leader] Riek Machar has shown any interest in sparing their people from this suffering or in reaching a political solution. Yesterday, I met with leaders from this region. We agree that, given the urgency of the situation, Salva Kiir and Riek Machar must reach an agreement by August 17. If they do not, I believe the international community must raise the costs of their intransigence,’ said Obama. Obama did not go into details about what exactly he meant by raising ‘the costs of their intransigence’, but it is likely to involve some of the options that have been discussed previously: comprehensive sanctions, perhaps, or even a more concrete threat of military involvement. The fact that Obama’s deadline comes after a meeting with key leaders from IGAD, including the presidents of Kenya and Uganda and the prime minister of Ethiopia, lends it credibility. It is likely that the PSC will be involved at some level in formulating or approving additional measures. Obama urges publication of the Obasanjo report Obama had one more thing to say on the subject of South Sudan: ‘And the world awaits the report of the AU Commission of Inquiry, because accountability for atrocities must be part of any lasting peace in Africa’s youngest nation.’ This report into human rights violations committed by all parties to the South Sudan conflict was submitted to the PSC late last year and is yet to be made public. The Commission of Inquiry was led by former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo. There has been some progress, however. On 24 July, at the 526th meeting of the PSC, member states finally formally considered the report, along with a Separate Opinion – indicating that at least one of the Commission of Inquiry’s members disagreed with the report’s findings. At the meeting, the PSC tasked an ‘ad hoc sub-committee, comprising Algeria, Chad, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda, to consider the report of the [Commission of Inquiry] and the Separate Opinion and make recommendations on the way forward’, according to a communiqué released after the meeting. At a press briefing organised by the South African National Editors’ Forum on Monday, 27 July, South African Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, who chaired the 24 July PSC meeting, added that ‘the meeting was unanimous in its view that while it condemned impunity and lack of accountability, the peace processes should also be nurtured and promoted’. Summit meeting of PSC by end-August The ad hoc sub-committee must submit its report on the Obasanjo report to all PSC members by the third week of August; a PSC meeting at the level of heads of state will consider its recommendations by the end of August. This summit meeting will give the PSC the political authority to take any necessary decisions – which is presumably why the 24 July meeting delegated the task. There are two other theories doing the rounds in Addis Ababa to explain the delay: the first is that the PSC wants to keep the publication of the report as a bargaining chip in negotiations, and may even shelve it if South Sudan’s leaders reach an agreement; the other is that it needs time to merge the report with the Separate Opinion, to better show a united front. Nkoana-Mashabane said at the news conference that IGAD, chaired by Ethiopia, had provided PSC member states with an update on the status of its mediation efforts ‘and the difficulties experienced’. ‘The current impasse among the conflicting parties is of particular concern. IGAD confirmed that a proposed compromise agreement is being prepared for the protagonists in the conflict.’ According to Nkoana-Mashabane, IGAD is being assisted by the so-called IGAD-Plus, consisting of South Africa, Algeria, Rwanda, Nigeria and Chad, representing the five regions of the continent. ‘This expansion seeks to provide collective impetus to existing efforts and be able to complement these,’ she said. Whatever happens, this month is going to be an important one for South Sudan’s future. If Obama’s hard talk is to be believed, we could be seeing decisive action from the international community very soon; and if we do not, it could be a sign that nothing – not even a personal intervention from the president of the US – can hurry this process along. -- To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/southsudankob View this message at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/southsudankob/topic-id/message-id For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "South Sudan Info - The Kob" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/SouthSudanKob. 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