*Government signs gold exploration deal with Russia/ EIU 03.08.15*

Event

On July 28th the Ministry of Mining announced that it was in the process
of granting a gold exploration concession to an as yet unnamed Russian
company.

Analysis

Sudanese officials' claims regarding gold exploration and production
prospects tend to run well ahead of the reality. On this occasion, for
example, the mining ministry described the agreement with a Russian
company as "unprecedented", even though in 2014 it reported that it had
granted mining exploration licences to some nine Russian firms. Equally,
none of the many mining exploration licences that the ministry has
granted in recent years appear to have led to very promising results as
yet. Despite this, the mining ministry is persevering in its efforts to
expand gold mining. A Canadian company, Orca Gold, is currently
exploring a block on the Egyptian border, which it acquired in 2011.
Last year the ministry granted a gold exploration concession in North
Kordofan to a French firm, Oramin.

The ministry also revoked the licences of six companies which it said
had breached safety and environmental standards, and appears to be
making some progress on the task of regulating artisanal, or
"traditional" gold mining. According to the mining minister, Ahmed
al‑Karouri, the ministry has nearly finished preparing new legislation
to regulate such mining, and recently contracted two German companies to
help introduce alternatives to the use of mercury in artisanal mining.
The interest for the ministry is in increasing how much the state earns
from artisanal gold mining and exports.

Mr Karouri has previously said that he believed artisanal gold mining
accounts for 90% of Sudan's actual total gold production, but that much
is smuggled out of the country. In early July Mr Karouri announced that
gold production in the first half of this year had totalled 43 tonnes
and that the government expected production to total 80 tonnes for the
whole year, and rise to 100 tonnes in 2016. These figures must include
the ministry's estimates for artisanal production, as officially
recorded gold exports totalled only 30.4 tonnes in 2014 and 7.9 tonnes
in the first quarter of 2015.

Impact on the forecast

We already forecast an expansion in the volume of mining-sector exports,
particularly of gold. However, although gold export volumes will rise in
2016, the government's projections are likely to prove overoptimistic.

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