“There Is No Plan B” In IGAD’s Peace For South Sudan
"Subsahara Centre has been calling, time and again, that Power Sharing was
the wrong file and wrong foot to start the negotiations with. That the
Security Arrangements file needed to be at the forefront."
07 August 2015
Analysis by Canada-based *Subsahara Centre*
Ottawa Article 63 on South Sudan, Wednesday, August-05-15
South Sudan Peace process: IGAD: “No matter how long a log remains in the
water, it will never turn into a crocodile! (African proverb). First
article of two”.
We will spell out what we see as wrong and then suggest one starting step
to make things right without beating around the bush.
THE US
President Obama
When both President Barak Obama and John Prendergast talked about “Plan B”
on July 27th and July 28th 2015, there was no plan B. There was a threat
that if “Plan A” of Seyoum Mesfin does not get signed on August 17th the
US, Europe, AU, IGAD are going to send both President Kiir and Dr. Machar
and colleagues to hell!
A plan is an “orderly” or “step-by-step” conception or proposal for
accomplishing an “objective” was that there in Obama’s mind? Or brief case?
Or one of his aides? Indeed is that anywhere in the IGAD miserable track
record during 20 months and counting? (There is no IGAD Plus-see out next
article #64 in a couple of days).
This is substantiated by the communiqué that came out in the VOA on August
5th when Ban Ki Moon met with president Obama on August 4th. “If they miss
that target, then I “think” it is “our view” that “it is going to be
necessary” for us “to move forward” with a different plan and recognise
that those leaders are incapable of creating the peace that is required”
That as verbatim of what Obama said. There is NO Plan B. Is that the
language of someone who has a “Plan”?
But the biggest question President Obama: Were “those leaders” ever REALLY
given the opportunity for “Creating the peace that is required?” Do not
miss the elephant and shoot at the shadow.
No. It has always been the IGAD or Ato Mesfin (makes no difference) who
insisted time and again to “Solve the problem” and not create the
“Conducive process” for the “leaders to solve the problem”.
Call a spade a spade Mr. Obama. 15 months are left for the US elections and
the fever of campaigning is rising and Obama is starting his countdown and
exit activities. He has massive domestic issues: Firearms and 32,000 lives
taken YEARLY in the US by gunshots, Iran deal, climate change, Syria, ISIS,
immigration
issues, cutting on military expenses.... But: May be there is a Plan B!!
Donald Booth
Ex Ambassador (Civil Servant), he has no political power base or religious
base. He is not a Scott Gration a decorated 2 star general and Iraq war
veteran. This is not John Danforth the UN Ambassador of the US, the
Attorney general of Missouri, the suggested Vice President runner with GW
Bush. This is an envoy who was ONLY the ambassador of the United States to
Liberia, Zambia, and
Ethiopia. This is an ex ambassador who is also the envoy to Sudan and has
not been able to set foot in Sudan since his appointment in August 2013.
This is what he said in Juba on July 30th “The patience of my country, of
the region, and the other international partners has run out”. Verbatim a
she said it. Really? And so what? Will that solve the problem?
Now what was Paul Malong’s response to him on July 31st? He warned that he
and the rest of the army, under Salva Kiir, were ready to follow in the
footsteps of the Al Qaeda terror organization, if necessary, in order to
resist US from imposing peace on the Juba regime.
“This so called IGAD peace proposal is useless, we can’t accept it even if
US forces us to do so” said a furious Paul Malong.
While addressing a crowd of government loyalists on occasion of the Martyrs
Day in the capital, Juba, Malong warned that if the US imposes the peace
document on the government then the regime would rather rebel and follow
the footsteps of terror groups.
“I better be a rebel…. You should know that those who are in Al-Qaida,
Taliban, Isis, Boko Haram, Alshabab …. They are human being like us;
therefore we should follow their foot-steps than signing that fake peace”.
The question is: Can President Kiir or anyone in South Sudan ignore that?
........ But IGAD does (see page 4 below)!
John Prendergast
Again he was an ex advisor in the White House to Bill Clinton. He runs
Enough Organization and advises others. Darfur was a main focus for him but
wherever there is conflict/genocide he is there. Here is what he says about
President Obama’s flimsy position:
“His warning of a Plan B that would be put in play if the parties do not
reach agreement on August 17 is exactly the right message to send to build
LEVERAGE for the success of the mediation. Preparations should begin now to
create a robust and draconian Plan B......”
Draco of Athens must be turning in his grave! What kind of “Human Rights
Activists” would use such a term? But South Sudan conflict is now “Free for
all”. So it is to “Build leverage” and not a Plan B!
Andrew Natsios: The Sound of Wisdom and Knowledge
This is what the former US Envoy to South Sudan and the ex boss of the
USAID said: “The United States government and European countries should
initiate new talks with new sponsors. And the immediate priority of those
discussions should be to weaken the military capacity of the warring
parties while urgently brokering a humanitarian cease-fire,” he wrote in an
op-ed published in the New York Times on Thursday July 30th.
Natsios said the so-called IGAD-Plus talks have failed to bring about a
viable peace agreement because some of the mediators are not impartial
brokers, citing Khartoum which has allegedly been supplying South Sudan
with weapons to keep the country unstable.
“The most effective military troops there now are the Ugandan People’s
Defense Force, which President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda sent in to help
Mr. Kiir, who is a friend and ally, stay in power. Ethiopia, which has a
significant Nuer population, can press only gingerly the Nuer rebel leaders
and commanders in South Sudan,” he said.
The former US envoy to South Sudan further proposed that senior military
commanders from the two sides be included in the negotiations.
“In fact, they must be: When in the past the government in Juba has issued
humanitarian access permits to United Nations relief agencies, commanders
in the field have ignored them and stopped aid shipments,” stressed Natsios.
“Allowing commanders participate in the talks", he said, "will most likely
see them enforce what they agreed upon at the negotiating table”.
Subsahara Centre has been calling, time and again, that Power Sharing was
the wrong file and wrong foot to start the negotiations with. That the
Security Arrangements file needed to be at the forefront.
Mr. Natsios goes on that, “local Christian churches and local civil society
groups should be encouraged to start grassroots reconciliation initiatives,
especially to ease tensions between the Nuer and Dinka”.
NOT to be in the talks or sign on the document
“The churches in particular, which claim the loyalty of 60 percent of the
population, are a rare indigenous actor with both moral authority and a
reach that transcends tribe and region,” he wrote Thursday.
The former US envoy urged international aid agencies to fund the training
of church leaders in mediation techniques and set up a pilot program to
create local dispute-resolution committees using church leaders, with a
view to eventually extending it across the country.
What an advice of gold! May be the IGAD Envoys can be given seats in the
mediation techniques training!!
Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GRSS):
A different kind of play and messaging is coming out. A “Go to hell”
attitude is emerging. Not only President Kiir or Gen Paul Malong or Dr.
Marial are now talking. Communities in thousands are talking.
Listen to Paul Malong:” We are not going to discard and victimise the sons
of Upper Nile who have remained defending the Constitution”. And he goes
on: “We are not going to accept to replace Stephen Buay who has resisted in
Division 1 and then Nhial, Batong, PulJang and Two Sector Commanders Gong
Biliu and Chathath Lam. We will not replace them with those who have
rebelled”.
Then listen to President Kiir on Martyrs Day in Juba on July 30th: “If I
sign this agreement, then what you have written there {Reward Martyrs with
just peace} will not be just peace. He goes on saying “There was no reason
for the two parties to send delegates for negotiations in Addis Ababa if
mediators have the authority to determine an end to the conflict.” How very
true!
President Kiir goes on: “Any agreement that gives Upper Nile (Greater UN)
to Riek Machar will not bring peace to this country”. The husband is the
last to know!
Now let us take you, briefly, to IGAD (We are leaving them to the end for
evaluation in the coming articles).
Today August 6th they stunned us: This came today in the Reputable Turkish:
News Organization “Anadolu” from an insider in IGAD commenting anonymously
on the possible rejection of the GRSS of the proposed agreement of July 24th
The IGAD person said: “This is just propaganda,” the source, speaking
anonymously, told Anadolu Agency. “IGAD hasn’t formally received anything
from the South Sudanese government.”
There was “no reason,” the source added, why either side would reject the
proposal, “90 percent of which is based on the outcome of 19 months of
negotiations.”
IGAD, he went on to say, would advise negotiators from both sides to come
to Addis Ababa on the appointed date and begin talks on a proposed
“compromise agreement”.
There are two explanations:
1. Either President Kiir, Gen Paul Malong, Dr. Marial, the demonstrators in
Bahr El Ghazal (BG), Juba and Bor, the SPLM (Juba) are coming from another
planet, or
2. The IGAD and Company are in another planet.
BG now came out with the slogan: “One president, one army, one nation, one
people”. Well coined.
But it is not news that IGAD and Co and most of the so-called International
Community are out of touch with reality on the ground-Both Government and
Opposition held areas and they are too naive to do reality checks.
The SPLM/A-IO
Total silence since they received a copy of the Obasanjo Report. What have
they found (or did not found) in the report? Is it true that there is no
mention of genocide? Why did Obasanjo visit Dr. Riek Machar in Pagak a
couple of months back and suggested to him (Dr. Riek) that he (Obasanjo)
takes over the mediation? Has the report been massaged by the AU before
release? Has someone somewhere been bribed to retract some of the reports
content?
This is Africa and these are African “Rulers”... there are no “Leaders”....
Not alive. Everything is possible. But may be IO can talk?
Another puzzle is what came out of James Gadet Dak on August 2nd: “Yes, we
have accepted the demilitarization of the National Capital Juba during a
transitional period”. This is not a “stand alone” proposal in the miserable
document of July 24th. This is part and parcel with other components of the
transitional security arrangements. One cannot single out just one element
and accept it.
The same day the SPLM/A-IO announced that the consultations in Pagak have
kicked off. Why then not wait until the consultations are done and come out
with positions on all the landscape of the document?
On Pagak, one nagging question will be: Are Gen Peter Gadet, Gathoth
Gatkouth and Gen Koang Chuol Renley going to be in Pagak? If one is to
point at two undisputed military heroes in the eyes of the Nuers, they will
be those
generals. Is it true that they have been blocked at Gambella?
Is Gen Koang communiqués on his and Gen Gadet’s relieve from their
positions prelude to military division? IO says the relief and changes are
“Normal”. This is not a regular army. It is not Bilfam or Khartoum. Gadet
is the commander who marched with a full division into Bor and made the
first strike. If it were not for the UPDF, he would have entered Juba in
two days.
But also let us go to the changes made by removing Gen Gathoth Gatkuoth
from his position as logistics boss. The Gen was responsible for
“Logistics”. No replacement was named and logistics were taken under the
office of the Chairman Dr. Riek personally! What was really going on in
logistics? This is the money, arms, ammunition, soldiers, vehicles,
rations...
Why did Gen Gathoth come out on August 1st in Addis Ababa to protest and
warn of divisions? “The military council of the SPLM-IO had a dispute with
Riek Machar over issues that are concerning with the conduct of the
military operations” disclosed Gatkuoth.
It may be difficult to imagine an agreement being implemented, sustained
and honoured (even if one is signed) without Gadet, Koang and Gathoth. As
several Nuers are commenting: Let the politicians go back to Juba on their
own!
*More to come in Article 64*
*Subsahara Centre*
*Ottawa*
*Canada*
Posted in: Opinions
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