*Series of assassinations raises risk of escalating violence in South Sudanese capital in the six-month outlook/ IHS 08.07.16* Risks: Government instability; Death and Injury; Civil war Sectors or assets affected: All
Unidentified gunmen shot dead Lieutenant Colonel George Gismala of the Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) in Juba's Kator district on 2 July. The SPLA-IO claimed that troops loyal to President Salva Kiir had carried out the killing, although they denied any involvement, only later admitting having killed an unidentified criminal in the same area that day. The assassination came amid a series of attacks on SPLA-IO personnel in Juba in recent weeks, including claims from the SPLA-IO that First Vice-President Riek Machar's bodyguards had come under fire from members of the security services under the control of President Kiir near his Jebel Kujur residence in mid-June. The SPLA-IO called for restraint among its supporters, while the government says investigations into the killings are ongoing. Significance: The latest attack highlights increasingly poor relations between the SPLA-IO and the SPLM, as well as a deteriorating security situation in the capital, Juba. The government deployed additional troops throughout Juba in June and put them on high alert in preparation for potential retaliatory attacks by the SPLA-IO. As assassinations persist, an escalation of violence and retaliatory killings of SPLM personalities is likely. This will result in an unpredictable security situation in Juba, with the potential for spontaneous outbreaks of violence, exposing peacekeepers and aid workers to drive-by shootings, accidental gunfire and attacks. A significant escalation of violence into full-scale war remains unlikely as both sides seek to be seen to uphold the August 2015 peace agreement and President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar look to avoid the imposition of UN sanctions. The repeated failure of the SPLA-IO and the SPLM to form a joint South Sudan police force, as stipulated in the peace agreement, will continue to undermine the restoration of peace, with crime and violence to remain prevalent in the capital. -- To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/southsudankob View this message at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/southsudankob/topic-id/message-id For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "South Sudan Info - The Kob" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/SouthSudanKob. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/SouthSudanKob/CAJb14orV9ELOTfRqHxp0e%2BFmpcS%3D1ebsjvKsnEsSwRqXw77AAg%40mail.gmail.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
