*Firefights in Juba risk shattering fragile peace/ Oxford Analytica
11.07.16*

The durability of South Sudan's peace agreement will face its greatest test
yet in the coming days

Fighting between rival factions of South Sudanese soldiers in Juba from
Friday through Sunday killed at least 300 people, including 33 civilians
and two Chinese peacekeepers. The clashes between forces loyal to President
Silva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar were the most violent
incident in the country since the national unity government took office in
April after a two-year civil war. Reports indicate that some of the attacks
were directed against the area where Machar and his military are based. The
weekend's violence followed an incident on July 7 that killed five
soldiers. Machar's spokesman stated the South Sudan was "back to war", but
a government spokesperson denied that the civil war had formally restarted.
Kenya Airlines and Rwandair have suspended flights to Juba, while the US
embassy has evacuated non-emergency staff.

Our judgement

Even if Kiir and Machar appeal for calm, they may lack control over
combatants. International actors who worked to end the civil war, including
the United States, United Kingdom and the UN, will seek to defuse tensions
but their role in limiting further violence will be limited.

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