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From: IRIN <[email protected]>
Date: Tue, Jul 12, 2016 at 9:03 AM
Subject: A fight to the death? ...
To: ElisabethJanaina <[email protected]>


Today's humanitarian news and analysis

*Online version
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A fight to the death?
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If the fighting in Juba between the forces of President Salva Kiir and Vice
President Riek Machar marks South Sudan’s return to civil war, it won’t be
for a lack of warnings over the shakiness of the peace.

The power-sharing agreement that saw Machar return to Juba in late April
was always going to be difficult to implement
<http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=d9c1d6c4b5&e=399c7ee738>.
There were already concerns about the demilitarisation of the opposing
armies, issues over drafting a new constitution, and, thorniest of all,
Kiir’s determination to create additional states – opposed by Machar and
the international community.

Machar’s return marked the end of a two-and-a-half-year civil war in which
government and opposition forces alike committed mass atrocities against
civilians. Much of the brutality took place along ethnic lines, with Kiir’s
largely Dinka soldiers targeting civilians of Machar’s mainly Nuer people,
and vice versa.



Read more

South Sudan - five charts at age five
<http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=92140413d2&e=399c7ee738>



Can South Sudan’s peace deal stick?
<http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=add9d36209&e=399c7ee738>



Splits and schisms in South Sudan
<http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=c5c77402be&e=399c7ee738>



After five days of fighting in Juba, the situation remains confused.
Hundreds of people have been killed in the violence, in which heavy
artillery and helicopter gunships have been used. Thousands more have been
displaced, fleeing the city or looking for refuge in churches, schools, and
NGO compounds. The humanitarian community is in lockdown.

“Some neighbourhoods have been badly hit and you can imagine that after
five days of fighting people’s food stocks are low,” Feargal O'Connell,
country director of the aid agency Concern, told IRIN.

“Both parties signed up to this peace agreement and are aware of their
obligations,” said O’Connell. “Regardless of what’s going on, it’s clear
what everybody needs is peace.”

But there had been a sense of inevitability about this latest round of
violence. Both leaders were seemingly shoehorned into the peace deal – Kiir
even questioned it as “not made to be implemented
<http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=1808cd0d70&e=399c7ee738>”
– and in the last few weeks there were reports of senior members of
Machar’s SPLA-IO being assassinated in Juba by hitmen from Kiir’s SPLA.
Not-so phoney war

Juba was also not the first incidence of violence this year. In February
more than 18 people died when SPLA soldiers broke into the
UN-administered Protection of Civilians compound in Malakal, Upper Nile,
following growing ethnic tensions between the Dinka and the Nuer and
Shilluk communities in the camp.

Philippe Carr, regional communications advisor for Médecins Sans
Frontières, described Malakal today as “stable so far”, but it’s just one
of several ethnically mixed areas that could be enflamed by the violence in
Juba.

What was a political division between Kiir and dissenters within the ruling
SPLA has degenerated into an ethnic conflict.

Kiir’s determination to increase the number of states
<http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=69d5e084ca&e=399c7ee738>
from 10 to 28 is regarded by his opponents as deliberate gerrymandering to
expand Dinka political and economic power.

The purging by the government army two weeks ago of parts of Wau, South
Sudan’s second largest city, is seen by some as just the latest example.

The government claimed the city was attacked by the “Islamic Militia
Movement”, an unlikely alliance of Uganda’s Lord’s Resistance Army, Sudan’s
notorious Janjaweed militia that terrorised the Darfur region, and
dissident local game rangers – all backed by Khartoum.
A longstanding plan

But eyewitnesses insist the attack was mounted by the army and aimed at the
Fertit, a community that some within the government believe are allied to
Machar’s SPLA-IO. There are reports of mass graves and bodies dumped into
the nearby Jur River, with some accounts putting the death toll at around
400.

Much of Wau remains abandoned. Homes were torched and looted by the SPLA
and local Dinka youth in the southern and western sections of the city,
beginning in Nazareth Quarter and stretching down Lokoloko Road, which is
known to be predominately Fertit.

[image: UN House IDP PoC camp in Juba]
UN Photo/Albert González Farran
UN House IDP camp in Juba - fighting has come close to UN compounds

This weekend, shooting could still be heard around Lokoloko Road, with
reports of burning and theft continuing in the Jebel Kher area.

Juma Marial, a resident of Nazareth Quarter, showed IRIN what remained of
his home. The thatching on his roof was burnt away and his brick walls are
scorched black. The rooms inside have been ransacked, old family photos and
clothes strewn across the yard.

“We ran to the church on Friday,” he explained. “We came back the next day
and found this. There’s nothing left.”

Marial continues to sleep in the church compound, too fearful of SPLA
patrols to return home.
Huge suffering

Some 120,000 people fled their homes in Wau. Approximately 25,000 displaced
have taken refuge at the UN’s camp; tens of thousands others are scattered
across the city seeking shelter wherever they can, and countless more have
taken to the bush. According to the International Committee of the Red
Cross, they have reached 70,000 with food aid in the past two weeks.

“The last time I remember something of this scale was in the 1980s [during
the civil war before independence],” Father Moses Peter, humanitarian
coordinator with the Catholic Diocese of Wau, told IRIN.

The surge in violence began in December, when the army deployed additional
troops in a heavy-handed counter-insurgency operation against Fertit rebels
to the west of Wau. According to Human Rights Watch
<http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=394fc2d53d&e=399c7ee738>,
soldiers “killed, tortured, raped, and detained civilians and looted and
burned down homes”.

The troops were under the command of Chief of General Staff Paul Malong,
the former governor of Northern Bahr El Ghazal, who is seen by some as the
architect
<http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=4130336a74&e=399c7ee738>
of the current violence in Juba.

Many IDPs IRIN spoke to believe the attack on Wau is part of a longstanding
policy aimed at extending Dinka domination in what is an ethnically divided
region.

The existence of a Fertit militia dates back to 2012, when a demonstration
against what was perceived as government encroachment on Fertit land was
fired on by the SPLA. Twenty-four protesters were killed.

Fertit youth took to the bush. In 2014, their militia allied with the
better-armed SPLA-IO, cementing the animosity and mistrust brewing between
Dinka and Fertit groups.

There is a proliferation of militia in South Sudan, which has complicated
demobilisation. Before last week, both sides accused each other of
continuing attacks.

But Kiir’s SPLA has seemed the more aggressive party, attacking cantonment
sites in Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal, where SPLA-IO troops
were supposed to assemble. The government’s response has been to deny there
are legitimate SPLA-IO forces in those regions.

And so South Sudan has slipped and slid to this current point. On 9 July,
it celebrated its fifth anniversary of independence. Kiir and Machar might
call for peace, but there is growing unease that what we are actually
witnessing might be a fight to the death.

rg/oa/ag
juba.jpg
<http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=90830a317f&e=399c7ee738>
Analysis <http:///analysis> Aid and Policy <http:///aid-and-policy> Conflict
<http:///conflict> Human Rights <http:///human-rights> Politics and
Economics <http:///politics-and-economics> A fight to the death? Rajiv Golla
<http:///authors/rajiv-golla> IRIN <http:///byline/irin> Calls for peace
don’t seem to mean much in South Sudan WAU
<http:///publication-location/wau> Africa <http:///africa> South Sudan
<http:///africa/east-africa/south-sudan>

*Read on
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