---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Small Arms Survey <[email protected]> Date: Tue, Jul 12, 2016 at 3:40 PM Subject: Darfur embargo lessons for South Sudan: New Small Arms Survey report To: [email protected]
As the UN Secretary-General calls for the Security Council to reconsider a full arms embargo on South Sudan today, the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) project releases a detailed new report on the UN embargo on Darfur, which contains important lessons for any possible embargo on South Sudan. *HSBA Issue Brief 24, ‘Broken promises: The arms embargo on Darfur since 2012’* <http://smallarmssurvey.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f825e06204d5b6ec1997aed09&id=5a718b2cd5&e=b3e6d4db9c> provides an update on the development and impact of the Darfur arms embargo from 2012 to early 2016. It surveys the region’s conflicts; reviews the supply chain of weapons and military equipment to conflict actors in Darfur; examines changes to the UN embargo regime and investigations of the UN Panel monitoring the embargo; discusses the politics of the Security Council Sanctions Committee on Sudan; and assesses the effectiveness of the embargo and other efforts to prevent the illicit circulation and misuse of weapons in Darfur. A new HSBA Facts & Figures report <http://smallarmssurvey.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f825e06204d5b6ec1997aed09&id=441347aad5&e=b3e6d4db9c> accompanying this Issue Brief highlights the foreign supply chains of aircraft and vehicles to the Government of Sudan, which are increasingly becoming a focus of the Darfur sanctions regime. With respect to South Sudan, HSBA Issue Brief 24 finds that Darfur’s arms supply-chain patterns seem to have been repeated in South Sudan, as have some of the patterns of the current sanctions regime. For example, the South Sudan regime has been marked by acute lack of consensus, both among the P5 and among key African Union leaders. There is also disagreement among international parties over whether sanctions help or hinder peace negotiations, an ambivalence that can itself contribute to sanctions paralysis. The Darfur experience also suggests that in an environment of weak political consensus and limited repercussions for violators, embargoes are unlikely to be either effective or politically acceptable if major suppliers to the warring parties are geographically contiguous and regionally influential in peace negotiations. Finally, at a practical level, the UN Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) may face much the same political fate as UN African Union/United Nations Hybrid operation in Darfur (UNAMID), with corresponding limitations on access by the sanctions regime’s monitors. Among the Issue Brief’s other main findings: - Since foreign patrons began to withdraw their support to Darfur’s rebels from 2010 onwards, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has become the primary source of weaponry for all sides in Darfur. Meanwhile, the parties have reduced the volume of military resupply and the presence of major weapons systems in Darfur, primarily in response to conflicts elsewhere on Sudan’s peripheries, not as a result of the embargo. - Although the UN Panel of Experts has produced clear evidence that the Sudanese government continues to move weapons supplied from Belarus, China, and the Russian Federation into Darfur—in contravention of end-user assurances to suppliers and in violation of the embargo—all three countries have continued to export weapons of the same types to Sudan. - Despite successive Security Council resolutions that require UNAMID to monitor violations of the arms embargo, the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) and UNAMID’s leadership do not acknowledge this aspect of the mission’s mandate and have declined to incorporate it into its activities. Nevertheless, UNAMID’s collaboration with and logistical support for the UN Panel has improved substantially since 2012. - Faced with Khartoum’s refusal to acknowledge the embargo’s legitimacy, and the decade-long inability of the Security Council to enforce its own measures, the UN Panel of Experts that monitors the embargo has shifted its focus towards controls on the transnational supply chain of weapons, aircraft, and dual-use items used in Darfur. - Apart from the United States, which has its own unilateral sanctions regime, only two states—Germany and the Netherlands—are known to have taken concrete steps to stop the delivery of military technology or dual-use items to embargoed entities. - The Security Council’s deadlock on the embargo and sanctions regime has been driven by a range of factors, including disagreements among the P3 (France, the UK, and the United States) regarding the effectiveness of using or threatening to use sanctions to influence prospective participants in peace processes; French and European Union (EU) relations with Chad; China’s insistence on the primacy of Sudanese sovereignty; and, increasingly, the Russian Federation’s hardening stance against the global legitimacy of sanctions and of the Security Council. Since 2012, the Russian Federation has replaced China as the primary Sanctions Committee blocker of efforts to expand or enforce the embargo. ‘*Broken promises*’ can be downloaded here http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/issue-briefs/HSBA-IB24-Darfur-Embargo.pdf The new Facts & Figures report accompanying this Issue Brief, which highlights the foreign supply chains of aircraft and vehicles to the Government of Sudan, which are increasingly becoming a focus of the sanction regime, can be downloaded here http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/facts-figures/HSBA-SAF-Supply-Chain.pdf For more information, please contact: Yodit Lemma HSBA Project Coordinator Small Arms Survey Maison de la Paix, Chemin Eugène-Rigot 2E 1202 Geneva, Switzerland [email protected] Follow the HSBA on Twitter (@Sudan HSBA) and Facebook (Sudan HSBA – Small Arms Survey) The HSBA for Sudan and South Sudan is a multi-year project administered by the Small Arms Survey <http://smallarmssurvey.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f825e06204d5b6ec1997aed09&id=eea08fecae&e=b3e6d4db9c>, a global centre of excellence located at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. It was developed in cooperation with the Canadian government, the United Nations Mission in Sudan, the United Nations Development Programme, and a wide array of international and Sudanese partners. Through the active generation and dissemination of timely, empirical research, the project supports violence reduction initiatives, including disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programmes, incentive schemes for civilian arms collection, as well as security sector reform and arms control interventions across Sudan and South Sudan. The HSBA also offers policy-relevant advice on redressing insecurity. Issue Briefs are designed to provide timely periodic snapshots of baseline information in a reader-friendly format. The HSBA also generates a series of longer and more detailed Working Papers. 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