---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: IRIN <[email protected]> Date: Wed, Jul 13, 2016 at 9:03 AM Subject: Would an arms embargo on South Sudan work? ... To: ElisabethJanaina <[email protected]>
Today's humanitarian news and analysis *Online version <http://us12.campaign-archive2.com/?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=9e2972b927&e=399c7ee738>* Would an arms embargo on South Sudan work? <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=435862b0ab&e=399c7ee738> In the aftermath of scenes of South Sudanese helicopter gunships attacking opposition positions in the capital, Juba, the UN Security Council has been urged to impose an arms embargo and is discussing the situation today. The move has been blocked by member states before, and experts are deeply sceptical it can work. “Even if an embargo is imposed, it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be enforced,” said the author of a report published today by the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment, which monitors conflict in Sudan and South Sudan. The SAS report <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=2e0702229e&e=399c7ee738>shows that an arms embargo on the Darfur region of neighbouring Sudan has been violated frequently, with no repercussions. “This is because although the permanent members of the Security Council grudgingly agreed to impose the embargo in 2005, they fundamentally disagree about its legitimacy and utility,” said the author, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the research. “And there is as much, if not more, disagreement amongst the Security Council's permanent members now about an arms embargo on South Sudan,” he told IRIN. Opposition to an embargo Hundreds of people have been killed over the past few days. A short-lived peace deal broke down just as the world’s newest nation entered its fifth year of independence, after splitting from Sudan following decades of civil war. There are fears that the violence could trigger a return to all-out war. Yesterday, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called for an arms embargo, targeted sanctions on leaders and commanders blocking the peace agreement, and a stronger peacekeeping mission, including “desperately needed” attack helicopters. “I call on the Security Council and the entire membership of the United Nations to rise to this moment and protect the human rights of South Sudanese,” said Ban <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=1278fa19ad&e=399c7ee738> . Isaac Billy/UNMISS UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon shakes hands with South Sudan President Salva Kiir in Juba in February 2016 It remains to be seen whether fears of a return to the depravity exhibited on both sides throughout the conflict – including the widespread rape and murder of civilians – might finally convince Security Council members to take action. The United States initially opposed an embargo due to questions about “whether in fact it would prevent South Sudan's elected government from defending itself against the insurgency,” said the author of the SAS report. As the war raged in 2015, with both sides committing atrocities, the US supported the initiative as a measure to pressure the government to sign the peace agreement, according to the report. China and Russia, on the other hand, had geopolitical reasons to block an embargo. “Their opposition relates to political agendas larger than South Sudan: it constitutes more fundamental opposition to the legitimacy of UN sanctions and embargoes in general,” said the author. Both those countries have also been main arms suppliers to South Sudan. Arms sales Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which tracks global arms sales, indicates that Russia was the main supplier in 2011, the year South Sudan gained independence. At the time, South Sudan’s main military threat was seen as Sudan, and indeed the countries engaged in a brief border war in 2012. Canada was the largest supplier of arms in 2013, in terms of monetary value of shipments. In December of that year, the country descended into civil war between a faction led by President Salva Kiir, a Dinka, and Vice President Riek Machar, who is Nuer. As the war continued along ethnic lines in 2014, Canada sold more military hardware, according to SIPRI, but China became the largest supplier that year. These were “large-scale deliveries of small arms and ammunition that had been contracted prior to the outbreak of fighting,” according to the SAS report. Those shipments ceased, however, as “China in particular professed a reluctance to continue arming South Sudan’s government in the face of mass violence,” said the report. However, South Sudan found other suppliers. Data from SIPRI shows that the government purchased more than $20 million worth of arms last year. The source of the weapons is listed as “unknown country”, which brings up a major issue highlighted in the SAS report: the weakness of monitoring mechanisms. Tracking problems In fact, the estimate of $108 million in arms purchases by South Sudan is almost certainly too low. Flows of arms are difficult to track, especially when nations do not report sales and purchases. Neighbouring countries do not even show up as major suppliers in SIPRI data, yet they are responsible for much of the arms trade into South Sudan, according to sources including SAS and the UN Panel of Experts. “Uganda helped provide the government with attack helicopters from Ukraine, for instance, while some arms and ammunition have continued to reach the armed opposition from neighbouring Sudan,” said the SAS report author. JC McIlwaine/UNMISS Chinese peacekeepers in South Sudan Some of South Sudan’s arms suppliers may be having second thoughts now, as they could find themselves trying to rein in the very soldiers they supplied with weapons. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development, an East African group that includes Uganda and Sudan, yesterday called for <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=b3ee4cfab1&e=399c7ee738> an “urgent revision” of the UN’s peacekeeping mission “to establish an intervention brigade and increase numbers of troops from the region to *inter alia *secure Juba”. Two Chinese peacekeepers were killed over the weekend in an attack by the very same military their government sold weapons to. Sometimes, arms deals backfire. jf/ag *(TOP PHOTO: Rebel soldiers in Nyal, Unity State, South Sudan. Jason Patinkin/IRIN)* Rebel soldiers in Nyal, Unity State, South Sudan <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=1317b0bb18&e=399c7ee738> News <http:///news> Conflict <http:///conflict> Would an arms embargo on South Sudan work? Jared Ferrie <http:///authors/jared-ferrie> IRIN <http:///byline/irin> Africa <http:///africa> South Sudan <http:///africa/east-africa/south-sudan> *Read on <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=bc1c0b6c68&e=399c7ee738>* ------------------------------ Aid agencies weigh risks in Juba <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=b23374ca2e&e=399c7ee738> Aid agencies in South Sudan are weighing their options after an intense outbreak of fighting in the capital left hundreds dead and tens of thousands displaced. Many soldiers from rival factions are among those killed and wounded. Aid agencies in Juba have spent the last few days largely hunkered down, with staff staying at home or sleeping at office compounds. Some larger aid agencies have not been able to confirm the safety of all their staff, a task complicated by overloaded phone networks. NGO sources say some aid workers have faced harassment and threats at roadblocks. US-based NGO International Medical Corps announced <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=485f3084a0&e=399c7ee738> that its maternity wing at a camp for internally displaced persons in Juba took a direct hit in the latest fighting. Some aid agency compounds have become temporary shelters for civilians from the town, along with churches and other public spaces: WFP is hosting 3,000 displaced people at one of their compounds in Juba, a spokesperson told IRIN. Today, chartered flights have resumed from Juba airport, eyewitnesses said, and some diplomats and expatriate aid agency staff are being pulled out. A military spokesman <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=53acc36ec2&e=399c7ee738> has said that the Ugandan army may be used to escort Ugandan nationals home by road, while Japan has mobilised military aircraft to the region to support the evacuation of its nationals. Although the conflict has been intense, there may be a “desire not to evacuate” among humanitarian groups, according to the security analyst. The immediate needs of the wounded and displaced represent a critical humanitarian need, and lives are at risk, observers say. “The humanitarian situation is grave and the needs are immense,” Matilda Moyo, a spokeswoman from the UN emergency aid coordination body, OCHA <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=dd92624e8b&e=399c7ee738>, told IRIN. As the airport was effectively closed until this morning, and the roads too risky, few aid workers have attempted to move until now. Planning has been around how to reduce staffing and mitigate the risks. Moyo said “all [UN] organisations have been requested to prepare a list of non-essential staff for evacuation planning in the case that the security situation deteriorates any further“. [image: Displaced people take refuge at the WFP compound in Juba] Sinisa Marolt/WFP Displaced people take refuge at the WFP compound in Juba The NGO security analyst told IRIN that some smaller NGOs already had agreements to move their teams into better-protected compounds of larger agencies. The analyst added that the high turnover of expatriate staff in South Sudan was a concern, and relative inexperience and lack of local knowledge can lead to “overreaction” in high-risk environments. “Criticality” In December 2013, NGOs and UN agencies in Juba were taken largely by surprise at the fighting and killings of civilians that followed the open power struggle between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. Then, “there wasn’t a strong awareness of an impending conflict,” researcher Adele Harmer, of Humanitarian Outcomes, told IRIN. Her colleagues Abby Stoddard and Shoaib Jillani have been researching aid operations in conflict, including South Sudan, under a three-year research project, Secure Access in Volatile Environments <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=3e0f62724c&e=399c7ee738> (SAVE). In 2013, there was ”a very quick withdrawal… including essential staff”, said Harmer. When aid agencies did move back in, “they were slow to scale up”, and much of the operational response, beyond the protection of civilians sites nominally guarded by UN peacekeepers, consisted of rapid response distributions of food and other items, not sustained programmes. “We have a significant aid presence in South Sudan, but as is the pattern we found in our four-country study, aid operations are not running in the most insecure parts... where arguably the need is greatest,” Harmer said. This time, the humanitarian community is “extremely aware of the volatility”, but Harmer says the question is, whether “they are going to be confident enough to keep the critical staff in Juba in the midst of conflict” to respond to the latest needs and make it worth them staying. “This time they have much more information, they know what it will take… hopefully that is the lesson learned from December 2013.” “In December 2013, much of the personnel in the country were more development-focused. NGOs had to pivot the capacity of their teams to humanitarian response,” Lindsay Hamsik, of the the South Sudan NGO forum <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=ac07f66171&e=399c7ee738>, told IRIN via email. The group has 126 INGO and 88 national NGO members. Hamsik said that “NGOs will be looking at staff reduction plans, but scaling down non-essential staff only”. Risk As non-essential foreign staff are moved out, what about those that stay behind? Humanitarian Outcomes found in 2014 there were 2,335 international and 20,538 South Sudanese aid workers. Since independence in 2009, South Sudan has seen 71 aid workers killed <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=86d107fa04&e=399c7ee738>, 64 of them South Sudanese citizens, and 103 wounded. Most expatriate aid workers in South Sudan were at less risk, according to the research. “South Sudanese staff are considerably more at risk for direct targeting than internationals due to the ethnic dimension of the conflict,” the research found. Pressure has grown for more humanitarian aid spending to flow to national NGOs. Their local knowledge, trust from the community, and networks, can sometimes make them less at risk in conflict. However, the security analyst said that more work was needed to help national NGOs in South Sudan and elsewhere “build their capacity to manage the risks they face”. Staff from neighbouring Uganda are less safe. “Regional international staff have also been limited in where they may work, due to their country’s role in the conflict,” said the Humanitarian Outcomes research. “Ugandans, for example, were often not sent to field locations, and specifically not opposition territory.” South Sudanese civilians surveyed regarded the risk to foreign aid workers as minimal, Harmer said. MSF has issued a statement on Twitter <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=4bb4e1452a&e=399c7ee738> that it is likely to reduce its presence in Juba. Aid agency presence in high-risk environments has recently been the topic of a book, “Saving Lives and Staying Alive <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=76d54e592f&e=399c7ee738>” by the MSF in-house think tank, CRASH. It takes a critical look at the “professionalised” and headquarters-driven security mechanisms of contemporary aid agencies. On the other hand it also takes aim at the “self-glorification” of risk-taking in aid work. It questions a quantitative approach, drawing conclusions from cataloguing incidents into databases that cannot take into account the specifics and context of each event. Harmer argued that NGOs need to be more up-front about what they are trying to achieve, and what risks they are willing to take. They should place emphasis on “understanding the criticality of the nature of the intervention in relation to the risk… rather than just looking at the nature of the risk itself. “What we would hope from this research, is that we are much more honest about what we can and we can’t do.” bp/ag Lead photo: UNMISS/Eric Kanalstein <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=055fa12243&e=399c7ee738> 28215452486_b11de9d00a_k.jpg <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=298eaf26c0&e=399c7ee738> Analysis <http:///analysis> Aid and Policy <http:///aid-and-policy> Conflict <http:///conflict> How will aid agencies change after South Sudan violence? Ben Parker <http:///authors/ben-parker> IRIN <http:///byline/irin> LONDON <http:///publication-location/london> Africa <http:///africa> South Sudan <http:///africa/east-africa/south-sudan> *Read on <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=056fe8b39c&e=399c7ee738>* ------------------------------ More news and analysis <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=01c05da2b3&e=399c7ee738> <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=596b75d02e&e=399c7ee738> <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=6e52ba58ad&e=399c7ee738> <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=98fa323a0c&e=399c7ee738> <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=06a6e147ed&e=399c7ee738> *Copyright © 2016 IRIN, All rights reserved.* Want to change how you receive these emails? 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