*Resumption of civil conflict in South Sudan's capital exposes aviation to high risk from small arms/ IHS Economics and Country Risk 13 Jul 2016*
Fighting between forces loyal to South Sudan's first vice-president and chairman of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), Riek Machar, and forces loyal to President Salva Kiir broke out on 8 July outside the presidential palace in the centre of the capital, Juba, about three miles from the international airport. The fighting carried on over the weekend into the early hours of yesterday (11 June). The fighting led to hundreds of deaths, according to local reports. The immediate trigger for the fighting is not yet clear, but events leading to it include a series of attacks on SPLA-IO personnel in Juba in recent weeks, including attacks on Machar's bodyguards near his Jebel Kujur residence in mid-June, the killing of SPLM-IO Lieutenant-Colonel George Gismala in Juba's Kator district on 2 July by unidentified gunmen, believed to have been National Security forces loyal to President Kiir, and a subsequent retaliatory killing of five government soldiers at a checkpoint in the city's Gudele neighbourhood by SPLM-IO forces on 7 July (see South Sudan: 8 July 2016: Series of assassinations raises risk of escalating violence in South Sudanese capital in the six-month outlook). The government deployed tanks, heavy artillery, and helicopter gunships against SPLM-IO positions, including its military headquarters in the hilly Jebel Kujur district in the outskirts of Juba. The SPLM-IO announced on 10 July that it had additional forces moving on Juba; however, that announcement has remained unconfirmed. President Kiir and First Vice-President Machar on 11 July both declared a ceasefire in the face of a UN sanctions threat, which seemed to have largely been observed on 12 July. Significance: The fighting represents the culmination of tensions that have been building up between the two camps that lead the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGONU). Due to the presence of air assets giving government forces a significant advantage in the fighting, the SPLM-IO will attempt to target any air assets it deems to be unfriendly. While the SPLM-IO is unlikely to target UN aircraft and UN installations in and around the airport, it is likely to target private helicopters and aircraft that the South Sudanese government frequently rents out to boost its logistics capabilities. Juba International Airport is less than three miles away from the presidential palace, putting it close to a likely fighting hotspot and exposing it to fire from small arms and mortars. The SPML-IO is unable to shoot down aircraft flying at high altitude, due to a lack of long-range surface-to-air missiles or man-portable air defence systems; however, aircraft flying into or taking off from the international airport that are not easily identifiable as UN or neutral will be at risk of being targeted by small-arms fire and shoulder-fired anti-tank rocket launchers. UN personnel and other aviation workers are also at risk of collateral harm from accidental fire, especially coming from government troops pursuing SPLM-IO members looking for shelter in UN facilities close to the airport. The airport in Juba acts as a major base for the UN and is, therefore, unlikely to be taken over by either side should fighting resume. However, other airports and airstrips around South Sudan with little UN peacekeeper protection, especially in Upper Nile, Unity, and Jonglei states, are under a high risk of attack, especially from SPLM-IO forces looking to capture or destroy government air assets. -- To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/southsudankob View this message at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/southsudankob/topic-id/message-id For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "South Sudan Info - The Kob" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/SouthSudanKob. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/SouthSudanKob/CAJb14oozsjA2XxUTGkoXK4Qjpbh8aB%2BkmnKpHfENQCdoHoVZjA%40mail.gmail.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
