*Mass Killings May Have Created a Contagion, Feeding a Cycle of Violence/ The New York Times 27.07.16*
By BENEDICT CAREY; Frances Robles contributed reporting. The horrifying rash of massacres during this violent summer suggests that public, widely covered rampage killings have led to a kind of contagion, prompting a small number of people with strong personal grievances and scant political ideology to mine previous attacks for both methods and potential targets to express their lethal anger and despair. The Iranian-German who killed nine people at a Munich mall was reportedly obsessed with mass killings, particularly the attack by a Norwegian that killed 77 people in 2011. The Tunisian who killed 84 people at a Bastille Day celebration in Nice, France, also researched previous attacks, including the mass killing in Orlando, Fla. The Orlando gunman had reportedly researched the San Bernardino, Calif., attack. Some of the attacks are ideological, some are not and some fall into a gray area. But the highly publicized attacks in a nightclub and restaurants in Paris, at airports in Brussels and Istanbul, and in public spaces in Mumbai may be providing troubled people already contemplating violence a spur to act, experts said, in the same way that many school shootings and other violent rampages follow close on the heels of similar incidents in the news. ''Those of us in this field, it's the first thing we think about when we read accounts of these recent mass murders: The detailed coverage of terrorist attacks may be giving people who are vulnerable or thinking along these line ideas about what to do and how to do it,'' said Madelyn Gould, a professor of epidemiology and psychiatry at Columbia. The historical evidence that terrorist attacks become blueprints for random massacres is slim, Dr. Gould and others said. No one knows precisely what factors prompt people to commit such extreme acts, when the primary motivation is radical ideology. In rare cases where perpetrators survive, even they often do not have a clear sense of what moved them from despair and anger to large-scale murder. ''In interviews, they come across as what we call pseudo-terrorists,'' said J. Kevin Cameron, the director of the Canadian Center for Threat Assessment and Trauma Response, who has consulted on school shootings and other mass killing for almost 20 years. ''They're people with some ax to grind who are fluid -- that is, they're truly at their core struggling with suicide and homicide, and they swing between the two. Today the person is more suicidal; a week later he's more homicidal.'' But there is reason to suspect that contagion is a factor, from previous research on violence. Researchers have long known that highly publicized suicides can precede ''clusters'' of suicides in the weeks or months afterward, in people already thinking about suicide. The likelihood of such contagion depends on the prominence of the coverage, the detail in the reports about methods, the richness of the portrayals of people affected. In similar fashion, terrorist attacks and mass killings have been exhaustively covered, Dr. Gould said. The vast majority of people who take their lives kill only themselves, leaving no evidence that they wanted to kill others. But experts suspect that murder-suicides are subject to contagion effects from high-profile cases, though the numbers are too small to establish that statistically. Only about 1 to 2 percent of murder-suicides target random people outside immediate family or friends, said Matthew Nock, a psychologist at Harvard. ''These events seem more homicide related, with suicide as part of the process, including suicide by police,'' Dr. Nock said. ''But you can see, with a confluence of factors, including readily available high-capacity firearms, continuous media reporting of mass killings and terror attacks, that there's certainly fuel for contagion.'' One study in Germany of rampage killers -- those who murder as many people as they can, without apparent motive -- found that these events do not occur randomly over time. Most such attacks, between 1993 and 2000, followed a similar event by weeks. A 2015 study of school shootings in the United States had a similar finding: Attacks tended to follow similar ones within about two weeks. Many school killers have researched the 1999 massacre at Columbine High School in Colorado, including the young man who slaughtered children and teachers at an elementary school in Sandy Hook, Conn. -- an attack that, in turn, informed still another school gunman, at an Oregon community college. In the weeks following a mass shooting in Canada this year, ''we got three to four threats a day to duplicate that crime for more than two weeks afterward,'' Dr. Cameron said. ''If you're a suicidal individual who never seriously thought of killing someone else, these mass attacks, whether terrorism or school shootings, or something like Nice, they give you ideas on site selection, on human target selection -- and how to go out with a bang.'' Terrorist attacks, besides providing how-to ideas, may also provide political cover to angry, mentally unstable people drawn to violence -- an ideological cause to justify acts of vengeance or grievance, some experts said. Brian Jenkins, a terrorism specialist at the RAND Corporation, referred to the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, in an email about the perpetrators of recent attacks in Orlando, Nice and Germany: ''ISIS's ideology may resonate with their own anger and promises them applause and recognition. 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