*SOUTH SUDAN Finally, the AU moves in / Africa Confidential 22.07.16 Vol 51 nº 15 * Although backed by the UN and regional organisations, AU plans to send an intervention force to Juba are fraught with peril
African leaders' plans to send a rapid intervention force to South Sudan to boost security and protect civilians will put them on a collision course with the government of President Salva Kiir Mayardit. Salva insists he doesn't want to see 'one single' foreign soldier in his country. The African Union move comes amid mounting regional and international pressure from the United Nations for sanctions, an arms embargo and a beefed-up protection force. Civilians sheltering in UN camps have been killed, as have UN peacekeepers. The plan was endorsed by leaders at the AU summit in Rwanda from 15-18 July, following the latest outbreak of fighting in Juba which started on 7 July and killed around 270 people with another 36,000 chased from their homes. The intervention force, known as the African Standby Force (ASF), was announced by the AU in January. Its deployment to Juba will face it with a complex and highly volatile situation and severely test the AU's political will and military capacity. Within hours of the announcement President Salva's Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) had organised a protest march in Juba against the AU. AU Commissioner for Peace and Security Smaïl Chergui said the new force would be similar to the 3,000-strong Intervention Brigade that took on the M23 rebels in eastern Congo-Kinshasa in 2013 (AC Vol 54 No 7, Rebels everywhere). This time, the AU force is to face the troops of a member state and rival forces on the ground. It will be more politically difficult than Congo-K where the South African and Tanzanian troops used helicopter gunships and artillery to destroy the rebels' positions. Before the AU plan was put to the summit, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) discussed on 10 July the establishment of an Intervention Brigade to secure Juba, although it didn't spell out how this force would work with the command structure of the 12,000 UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) forces already in the country. The UN forces have come under strong local criticism for failing to protect civilians. When a similar AU force was proposed to tackle Burundi's worsening crisis last year, President Pierre Nkurunziza flatly refused and the AU backed down. In theory, the AU could claim a 'Responsibility to Protect' and send in forces, whether or not the incumbent government agrees. Testing that principle in South Sudan would be fraught diplomatically, given regional divisions over the conflict. Yet the AU is meant to head the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission, chaired by the Botswana ex-President Festus Mogae, which has presided over the failure of last August's peace deal between President Salva and Vice-President Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon. Key to that failure were the transitional security arrangements for Juba set out in the peace deal. The idea that two armies, which had just fought a brutal civil war, could jointly run the security of the capital has proved absolutely unrealistic. But in the face of President Salva's opposition, a plan for an independent force to run security in Juba for an interim period was dropped. Something like this now seems to be on the table again. Also critical will be the UN's promise to boost its protection of civilians and to guarantee the safe passage of civilians fleeing the fighting. The UNMISS force already has a robust Chapter 7 mandate, allowing it to confront attackers from all sides. In addition, the mass evacuation of foreigners – including many Kenyans and Ugandans – working in international non-governmental organisations and in business threatens the economy as famine looms. There are also calls for a UN Panel of Experts to build on the work of the AU investigation into those with command responsibility for mass violence against civilians. Also at the UN Security Council, France and Britain want a comprehensive arms embargo against the government and its opponents. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, in Kigali for the AU summit, backed calls for the arms embargo and 'additional targeted sanctions on leaders and commanders working to unravel the peace process' and to 'fortify' the 12,000-strong UNMISS force. 'The restoration of the Transitional Government of National Unity will depend on the full demilitarisation of Juba,' Ban said. While Salva opposes both the AU force and bolstering of the UN mission, Riek, who hopes the force can protect him, backs the plan so far. Ban said he supported the proposal by defence chiefs from 'Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan and Uganda' to bolster UNMISS 'under the same unity of mandate and command'. The choice of Sudan looks bizarre: successive governments in Khartoum have bitterly fought opposition forces in the South at a cost of over two million lives in intermittent wars between 1956 and 2005. During fighting on 11-12 July, UN bases at Tomping and Jebel Kujur were hit, including the Protection of Civilians site at Jebel Kujur. The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) used tanks and helicopter gunships to attack Commander Riek's house and the barracks where his Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement in Opposition (SPLA/M-IO), was stationed. Riek fled and considers it unsafe to return. Trust Much is made of the lack of trust between Riek and Salva. They can never work together, an SPLM ex-minister told Africa Confidential, adding that new leaders are needed. Several veteran SPLM figures are quietly calling for the pair to stand down. Riek only returned to Juba at the end of April (AC Vol 57 No 14, Cracks widen in peace deal). He and Salva had failed to agree on the number of SPLA-IO troops he could bring and whether they could take heavy arms. Rick was allowed to bring some anti-tank weapons but no heavy artillery. As the fifth anniversary of South Sudan's Independence on 9 July approached, the atmosphere was tense. Riek and Salva had met only twice in two months. The Government of National Unity had little reality. For example, Salva unilaterally decided to create 28 states to benefit his own ethnic support base, according to Riek's supporters (AC Vol 56 No 21, New maps, no peace). Theories abound on the cause of the latest fighting. On 7 July, men from Riek's security detail killed five SPLA soldiers at the Lou clinic checkpoint west of Juba. The SPLM-IO claims SPLA soldiers tried to detain the men. Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth claimed an unnamed rebel Lieutenant Colonel in that incident later provoked the shoot-out at the Presidential Palace but offered no evidence. On the evening of 8 July, fighting broke out between Riek's and Salva's men at the Presidential Palace, known as J1. Inside, Salva, Riek and Vice-President James Wani Igga were meeting. The Health Ministry says 271 men were killed next to the room where the three leaders were holding a press conference. Bullets flew but the bodyguards maintained discipline. Riek was evacuated by a joint security detail of his and Salva's men. Fighting continued until 11-12 July. Just after the J1 fighting began, the SPLM-IO spokesman in Nairobi, James Gatdet Dak, claimed on Facebook that the J1 attack was a 'setup' and 'the President and his commanders attempted to arrest' Riek, who later described it as a 'calculated plan' to kill him. The Facebook message was taken down and Riek later blamed elements in the SPLA but not Salva himself. Such were the existing tensions that the shoot-out could have been triggered by fear among SPLA-IO soldiers that they were being set up. Salva's bodyguards were not properly briefed on how to accommodate their SPLA-IO counterparts when they arrived, a witness told AC. Another theory says both Salva and Riek were the intended victims of a coup, perhaps by SPLA Chief of Staff Paul Malong Awan. Fighters from Malong's Mathiang Anyoor militia were seen in the fighting on 10-11 July, eye-witnesses told AC. Repeated calls by Riek and Salva for their forces to show restraint were heeded only when, on 11 July, Malong issued an order for fighting to cease at 6 pm. Salva and later Riek declared ceasefires and fighting stopped. There is no firm evidence linking Malong to a coup plot but as Salva's prime enforcer he has plenty of enemies. Much of the fighting is due to a lack of command and control over fighters spurred on by ethnic and personal disputes. SPLA-IO blamed the SPLA for what it called the targeted killing of an SPLA-IO military intelligence officer, Lieutenant Colonel George Gismala Alexander, on 2 July, a death that a police spokesman gnomically ascribed to the fact that 'everyone has a gun'. An SPLA-IO Spokesman, Col. William Gatjiath Deng, said that SPLA-IO Sergeant Domach Koat Pinyien had also been abducted and killed the same night. Riek was himself the intended target of an armed attack on his vehicle on 16 June, said Gatjiath. Quickly, the violence was also used to settle scores. The SPLA rapidly mobilised overwhelming force with which to crush SPLA-IO. AC witnessed the Russian-made helicopter gunships mobilised for strikes against Riek's camp and the tanks used to pound his troops. It looks unlikely that the shells that fell on the UN and civilian protection bases, which killed two Chinese peacekeepers, were accidental. The SPLM-IO claims the SPLM is targeting its ministers. The SPLM-IO Secretary General and Minister for Energy and Dams, Dhieu Mathok Diing Wol, was arrested and beaten by security officers, said Gatdet Dak, adding that all SPLM-IO ministers were in 'imminent danger.' Salva has called on Riek to return to Juba, saying that he will 'stay with him' if he is worried about his security. Riek and SPLM-IO have called for international forces to act as a buffer between the two branches of the SPLA and for the demilitarisation of Juba as conditions of his return. Both conditions are anathema to Salva. If Riek doesn't return, the government plans to replace him, we hear. Mining Minister and former SPLM-IO chief negotiator, Taban Deng Gai, is heir apparent. If Riek cannot safely return to Juba, concern will remain that he may seek to draw upon anti-Dinka feeling elsewhere in the country. There may be little will, arms or money for another fight across Greater Upper Nile but there is plenty of disaffection. There have been clashes and SPLA offensives elsewhere and, according to sources in Juba, the Nuer White Army has mobilised in Jonglei (AC Vol 57 No 9, Raiders hit Gambella). That is a threat the government takes seriously and it has deployed troops and an attack helicopter to the region, we understand. *Juba's man-made disaster* The mass exodus of foreigners and industrial-scale looting of United Nations World Food Programme supplies for a population on the verge of famine is set to trigger another health emergency in the wake of fighting in the South Sudanese capital. World Health Organisation officials warn that there are risks of a cholera epidemic and there will not be enough drugs or medical personnel to treat the sick. About 4.8 million people face chronic food shortages; 1.6 mn. have fled their homes since the civil war started in December 2013. The UN expects a million people to flee to neighbouring states, and over 700,000 have already left. Amnesty International reported on 15 July that government officials were stopping young South Sudanese men from leaving the country. Two Chinese citizens in the UN peacekeeping force were killed last week. This time, there have been few of the retaliatory massacres and 'revenge rapes' that took place after fighting broke out in December 2013, despite the efforts of foreign-based 'social-media warriors' to stir things up. Unlike in 2013-15, leaders made immediate calls for restraint. However, the powerful security services may have scored an own goal by arresting the godfather of local journalism, former BBC Sudan correspondent Alfred Taban Logune, for calling on both key protagonists, President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Vice-President Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon, to stand down for the sake of the nation. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon joined the calls for Taban's immediate release. Hoax documents have been widely circulated purporting to show that the United States had stockpiled sophisticated weapons in UN compounds. As a platoon of United States Marines arrived to protect the US Embassy, with several hundred more troops on standby in Uganda, a statement from the US State Department began: 'The United States wants to reassure the people and the government of South Sudan that we are not planning, nor will plan, to target any government or military leaders…' Amid claims and counter-claims, the veteran Sudan commentator Eric Reeves published a retraction of his well-publicised web posting on 10 July that he had evidence that Riek had been planning a coup with Khartoum's backing: 'The evidence as I had and have it is insufficient to justify such a characterisation, and I deeply regret posting without fuller evidence in hand. It was irresponsible…' Sudan's President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir attended the African Union summit in Kigali on 17 July and offered troops for the planned intervention force. However, Omer's uncle, El Tayeb Mustafa, called for the secession of Upper Nile (Riek's home base) from South Sudan, which will add to anti-Khartoum sentiment in Juba and raise suspicion all round. Another risk is that Salva's people feel they've won at this stage and see no need to compromise. But the clamour for sterner international action is growing, with nearly half the country needing emergency aid. -- To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/southsudankob View this message at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/southsudankob/topic-id/message-id For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "South Sudan Info - The Kob" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. 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