*SOUTH SUDAN Pax Salvatica / Africa Confidential Vol 57 nº 17*
The balance shifts as Washington acknowledges Taban as Vice-President and Riek flees to Khartoum International plans for an expanded peacekeeping force of 4,000 African troops are at odds with the aims of South Sudan's rejigged Transitional Government of National Unity. Juba officials argue that could risk reigniting a conflict that seems largely over. Most international organisations planning the new force are reluctant to grant the concessions demanded by President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his supporters. Foreign determination has strengthened since reports were confirmed of the involvement of government soldiers in atrocities against aid workers and others in July. The United Nations Security Council Resolution 2304 of 12 August condemned 'in the strongest terms' the Juba fighting of 8-11 July and condemned the government's 'continued obstruction of UNMISS' (UN Mission in South Sudan). The proposed Regional Protection Force 'will report to the overall UNMISS Force Commander' and be deployed initially till 15 December to provide 'a secure environment in and around Juba… and in extremis in other parts of South Sudan as necessary'. After disappearing for nearly five weeks, First Vice-President Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon resurfaced last week with UN peacekeepers in Congo-Kinshasa, then re-emerged in Khartoum in intensive care. On 23 August, Taban Deng Gai, who replaced Riek in Salva's government, flew to Sudan for talks with the government. It seems Riek has been largely written out of the script. That much was clear when United States Secretary of State John Kerry visited the region this week and offered new aid for Juba, calling for both sides to respect last August's peace deal but raising no concern about Riek's sacking (AC Vol 57 No 16, Riek rival boosts Salva). After chasing Riek's Sudan People's Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO) from the capital, Salva's loyalists are trying to present new facts on the ground that obviate the need to implement the peace agreement. Proponents of this new Pax Salvatica argue that Riek is wholly to blame for the crisis. Now he is out of the way, the argument goes, the international obsession with peacekeeping and civilian protection can be replaced by delivery of urgent relief assistance, building roads, barracks, schools and hospitals, and financing post-war reconstruction. Much of Riek's Sudan People's Liberation Movement-IO opposes Taban's appointment and says few fighters are loyal to his faction in government and his IO cabinet reshuffle has undermined confidence in the peace agreement. Violations of the 11 July ceasefire continue, especially around Juba, Yei and Greater Upper Nile. Demobilisation, disarmament and reintegration remain highly contentious. So it is unlikely that the disposition of the rival forces will be finalised by the 31 August deadline in R.2304. Details of the Regional Force, also remain unclear. R.2304 allows more sanctions against individuals and an arms embargo in the event of obstruction. Uganda and Sudan have mutually agreed not to join the force as they first promised, leaving Ethiopia, Kenya and Rwanda to supply troops. Terror at the Terrain The UN has launched yet another enquiry into peacekeeping failures after the media released, five weeks after the event, details of the 11 July attack on US and other aid workers at the Terrain Hotel compound. It was perpetrated by SPLA soldiers after routing Riek's protection force. The atrocities undermine the claims of Salva-loyalists that Riek's removal would resolve everything. 'If only it was that simple,' said one local commentator, noting that although 40% of the population might blame Riek for the troubles, another 40% blame Salva and the powerful Jieng (Dinka) Council of Elders. The UN involvement in Riek's rescue, which his own supporters claim included Western mercenaries, feeds into government claims that the international community props up the IO rebellion. Just before the Terrain Hotel news broke, Salva again rejected the new protection force, just after the UNSC had approved it. 'Now these whites are saying they want to bring a protection force; to protect who?' Issuing veiled threats against Festus Mogae, the Botswanan ex-President leading the peace deal's Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission, and UNMISS head Ellen Margrethe Løj, Denmark's former UN Ambassador, he said on South Sudan TV: 'This person of JMEC who went and gave bad reports about us says we are vulnerable and need protection. And also this woman of UNMISS needs protection. Protection from what?' The answer? 'If somebody has interfered into our right, I don't think we will allow them to go without touching them.' Assaults on foreigners, the anti-Western and anti-interventionist rhetoric, and mounting restrictions on aid delivery have led to an exodus, which leaves aid services woefully understaffed. A nearly bankrupt government faces accusations of squandering what remains after defence spending on hotel bills for the new state governors and their officials, who languish in Juba awaiting the next move. -- To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/southsudankob View this message at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/southsudankob/topic-id/message-id For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "South Sudan Info - The Kob" group. 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