---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: "IRIN" <[email protected]> Date: 4 Oct 2016 09:03 Subject: Is Ethiopia unravelling? ... To: "ElisabethJanaina" <[email protected]> Cc:
Today's humanitarian news and analysis *Online version <http://us12.campaign-archive1.com/?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=06654f4114&e=399c7ee738>* Is Ethiopia unravelling? <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=585c7e6c2e&e=399c7ee738> On Sunday evening, the bars of Addis Ababa were doing their usual brisk business. Just 50 kilometres south of the Ethiopian capital, in the picturesque volcanic lake town of Bishoftu <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=22df7df56f&e=399c7ee738>, more than 100 people lay dead. About two million ethnic Oromo had turned up to celebrate a traditional cultural festival. But a deadly stampede ensued after police fired tear gas at protesters who were chanting anti-government slogans and throwing stones and bottles. Ethiopia is going through its most widespread and sustained protests since the ruling Ethiopia People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front came to power in 1991. It’s testing the leadership’s grip, and its big idea of a “developmental state” – the implied bargain in which the government delivers economic growth, in exchange for acquiescence over its authoritarianism. Although there has been significant economic growth over the past two decades, it has not kept pace with a “youth bulge”, rising unemployment and growing inequality. The bargain seems to be fraying in the face of increasingly obvious public corruption, disaffection with the suffocation of civil liberties, and localised misrule at the state level. When Ethiopian marathon runner Feyisa Lilesa <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=96a427e1e9&e=399c7ee738> celebrated at the finish line in the Rio Olympics by crossing his forearms above his head, the symbol of the opposition movement, he drew attention to the months of government crackdowns on protest. Since November 2015, that has cost upwards of 600 lives, according to human rights groups. “The oppressed stay silent but eventually you reach a critical mass and then it boils over,” said Yilikal Getenet, chairman of the opposition Blue Party. “Hundreds have been killed but they keep protesting. They go to protests knowing the risks. So what does that tell you?” Discontent spreads The Oromo are the country’s largest ethnic group, constituting 35 percent of the country’s nearly 100 million population. They have historically felt short-changed by successive regimes in Addis Ababa, and, initially, the unrest was confined to the Oromia Region. [image: Addis Ababa trade] rhjpage/Flickr But then in August, similar grassroots protest broke out among the Amhara, Ethiopia’s second largest ethnic group, starting in the ancient city of Gondar. For the first time, the government seemed to be on the ropes. “This movement, fundamentally, involves the peasants in the countryside,” said human rights lawyer Abebe Hailu. “This government came into being with the support of the rural poor. Now it is the rural poor that is against them – this is the irony.” Addis Ababa, the hub of political power and the engine of Ethiopia’s economy, has remained relatively cocooned. But there is undoubtedly a degree of uncertainty lurking among the sparkly new malls and rushing traffic. Activist alliance? It’s hard to say how closely the Amhara and Oromo activists are cooperating; but they are releasing joint press releases, mounting joint demonstrations outsides embassies abroad, and both groups are expressing solidarity with their counterparts. “The immediate causes of the two sets of protests were different but they have the same demands: deliver the right leadership,” said Yilikal, the opposition party chairman. “That was why, when the Amhara protested in Gondar, they carried posters calling for an imprisoned Oromo leader to be freed. Activists from either side are releasing messages to stand together.” Merera Gudina, chairman of another opposition party, the Oromo Federalist Congress, believes the ruling EPRDF’s political project of “ethnic federalism” could be unravelling. “What’s happening is a combination of everything: historical marginalisation and present marginalisation,” he told IRIN. “It’s a revolt against minority rule and its policies.” The EPRDF’s federal constitution was meant to accommodate the country’s impressive diversity of more than 80 ethnic groups, providing for shared and decentralised power. But the EPRDF is seen as controlled by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, which waged a successful guerrilla war against the 14-year military dictatorship of Haile Mariam Mengistu. Tigrayans form only about six percent of the population but have a key role in government, business, and especially the security forces – to the chagrin of those that are locked out. Alienation “The TPLF has trapped itself by ethnicising political life without accepting real autonomy for every regional state,” explained Robert Wiren, a French journalist who specialises on the Horn of Africa. “It is an open secret that behind each regional state leader there is a kind of unofficial political supervisor,” he said. “Since Ethiopia’s economic growth is due to a centralised-driven process, a lot of non-Tigray people suspect the Tigray elite to be the only beneficiary of the economic boom.” This style of governance has alienated the Amhara, who historically provided the emperors that ruled the country. The Oromo feel they have always been excluded, first by the Amhara, and then by the Tigrayans, a reality that could limit the strength of the new opposition alliance. The towering figure of Meles Zenawi, who ruled Ethiopia from 1991 until his death in office in 2012, wasn’t blind to such frictions. He chose as his successor Hailemariam Desalegn, who hails from a minority southern ethnic group. While proving himself an able technocrat, Hailemariam hasn’t been able to restrain Ethiopia’s competing elements <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=fa83bec2d7&e=399c7ee738> and balance its fragile ethnic politics. But he hasn’t been shy of speaking out, warning that issues facing the regime are a matter of “life or death”, and criticising party members for using “public authority for personal gain at all levels”. And he appears willing to make concessions. In the wake of the initial Oromo protests, the government shelved the ostensible cause: a plan to expand Addis Ababa into the surrounding Oromia countryside. This unprecedented government compromise was praised by many. “Obviously, the government has to maintain law and order. That’s the point of a government. But you have to balance things: on the one hand law and order, but on the other you have to deliver genuine solutions to people’s demands,” noted Lidetu Ayele, founder of the opposition Ethiopia Democratic Party. “If you balance that, you can really handle the situation. Otherwise, if you always pretend and play the same old political game, it cannot take you anywhere.” But the government doesn’t appear willing to go to the extent of opening a dialogue with the opposition. “All we have are our principles and public support – we have no power to negotiate with them on anything,” said Yilikal. Do opposition parties have a plan? But the civilian opposition – as opposed to the armed insurgents the government still battles – is also criticised for not matching the volume of its anti-government rhetoric with effective policy alternatives. During Ethiopia’s now infamous 2005 national election <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=a837d70168&e=399c7ee738>, opposition parties won a significant number of seats, but some refused to take them due to accusations of vote rigging that denied them outright victory. [image: Ethiopian girl] James Jeffrey/IRIN A troublesome youth bulge While many acknowledge vote rigging occurred, others lament how that boycott proved catastrophic. Today the opposition remains divided, apparently unable or unwilling to coalesce into a single effective voice. “What does the Ethiopian public want? Firstly, peace; secondly stability; thirdly prosperity,” suggested one Addis Ababa-based foreign analyst. “In most cases, the Ethiopian opposition have conflated opposition with opposite,” he added. “When asked for details of the programme for achieving those three needs, they revert to type and complain about how difficult it is to be opposition instead of answering the questions.” *Reform* “There are two types of opposition: those involved in armed struggle and then there’s legal representation like us, but the problem is the EPRDF puts all opposition in the same basket,” said Merera, of the OFC. “If it’s not willing to open political space <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=5ccec3e6ee&e=399c7ee738> for moderate forces, how can we do anything?” It’s argued, however, that much of the inability of opposition parties to gain traction and effectively engage with the EPRDF has more to do with their funding. “Nearly all of opposition political party funds come from the diaspora, and the diaspora are not going to pay for an opposition that cosies up to the EPRDF,” the analyst said. The EPRDF’s “revolutionary democracy” ideology is seen as fundamentally anti-democratic. What is needed, observers say, is reform. That would include releasing all political prisoners, unshackling the media, allowing freedom of expression, and reforming key institutions such as the judicial system. A sterner test will be ensuring the fairness of the next local elections in 2018 and national elections in 2020. The government has started talking about reforms. But for a country with a millennia of centralised, autocratic rule – first under its emperors and then its military leaders – that’s much easier said than done. “People need to be calm and patient,” said Abebe, the human rights lawyer. “And we need acceptance by the government about making real reforms.” jj/oa/ag *TOP PHOTO: Mural in an Ethiopian orthodox church, by Charles Roffey* mural.jpg <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=02fcd9f244&e=399c7ee738> Analysis <http:///analysis> Migration <http:///migration> Conflict <http:///conflict> Politics and Economics <http:///politics-and-economics> Is Ethiopia unravelling? James Jeffrey <http:///authors/james-jeffrey> IRIN <http:///byline/irin> ADDIS ABABA <http:///publication-location/addis-ababa> Africa <http:///africa> East Africa <http:///africa/east-africa> Ethiopia <http:///afrique/afrique-de-lest/ethiopia> *Read on <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=3d6fe006ff&e=399c7ee738>* ------------------------------ REVEALED: The “miracle babies” preacher tying British regulators in knots <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=b324ebfc09&e=399c7ee738> When “Mrs. E” found herself unable to conceive, desperate, she approached a member of her congregation. She had recently joined a church in the UK headed by Kenyan preacher Gilbert Deya. Mrs. E, who was granted anonymity by British courts, was taken under the wing of Deya’s wife Mary, and, after a number of counselling sessions, she travelled to Kenya for a second opinion. In October 2003, she returned to the UK with a child. Mrs. E said she believed the child was a “miracle baby”, but in November 2004 a judge in London found otherwise: he said the role of the Deyas was not miraculous, but “simple”. The child, known only as “C”, had no biological connection to Mrs. E. In the process of being convinced of a miraculous birth, the court heard that Mrs. E had been physically assaulted and money had changed hands. “C” was taken into the care of British social services as a victim of suspected child-trafficking. While Mrs. E may have been guilty of naivety and wishful thinking, the Deyas’ motive was, the judge told the court, “one of the most base of human avarices: financial greed”. Mrs. E’s story lies at the heart of the troubling saga surrounding Gilbert Deya Ministries and its flamboyant and outspoken leader – one that appears to have tied British charity regulators, the Kenyan police, and the international justice system in knots for more than a decade. During a month-long investigation in London and Nairobi, IRIN interviewed UK charity regulators and representatives of the victims, obtained land registries and legal documents, and trawled through public records, social media posts, and news reports. Here’s what we uncovered: At a glance - Despite a series of red flags, the UK Charity Commission has still not shut Gilbert Deya Ministries down - Deya’s charity continues to flourish and recently sold London property worth £3.8 million - It spent no money on “charitable activities” last year; its books described as “a cocktail of bad accounting” - Attempts to extradite Deya to Kenya on child-trafficking charges have stalled - 12 alleged child victims in Kenya stuck in care and legal limbo for more than a decade - When questioned, Deya called IRIN’s reporter an “evil Satanist” The preacher Deya is a 63-year-old, Bentley-driving preacher. The self-styled “Archbishop”, who claims to perform healing miracles at his services across the UK, has raised millions in donations and tax breaks since his charity opened in 1997. The charitable status of his church has already been investigated twice, and he has been fighting extradition to Kenya for years. Allegations against Deya initially surfaced in the Kenyan media <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=07b02cbc9e&e=399c7ee738> in 2004 and he has been wanted by Kenyan authorities since his arrest in the UK in 2006 to face allegations of child-trafficking. Police in Kenya allege that Deya’s “miracle babies” are part of an international baby-snatching ring, connected to disappearances from hospitals in Nairobi. A timeline of Gilbert Deya Ministries Deya’s wife has been in and out of court and prison in Kenya on child-trafficking charges. Mary Deya was initially arrested in 2005. In 2007, she was sentenced to two years in prison for stealing a child and one year for obtaining a false birth certificate. She was convicted in a second case in 2011. In 2014, Kenya’s high court upheld her conviction <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=b74f9aec9b&e=399c7ee738>, and, finally, in 2015, Mary Deya dropped a further appeal and continued to serve her time. Gilbert Deya Ministries describes itself as a Christian charity that aims to spread the word of God. Its website <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=c74291ecd0&e=399c7ee738>, which presents Deya as a visionary ordained by God, refutes the “negative publicity” surrounding Deya’s “miracles” stating: “the truth remains he has never [been] found guilty by the court of law in the UK”. In his 2003 book “Curses of Sexual Sins”, Deya declares AIDS a curse, calls homosexuality an “abomination”, suggests infertility may be caused by “generation curses”, and tells the reader he can help them with “miracle babies”. When IRIN approached Deya and asked him about the allegations against him, we were told to never call the number again with such “negative foolishness”. “Can you just write that Bishop Deya said he doesn’t talk with those people that are idiots; evil Satanist people like you,” he told IRIN’s reporter. The missing babies Kenyan police allege that several children were sold to Deya by women living in slums in Nairobi. According to Radik Malinskow, who works for child-trafficking charity HAART <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=18e432e6fa&e=399c7ee738> in Kenya, poverty has a large part to play. “Some of those woman have several children to feed and often they find it difficult to accommodate a new child,” he told IRIN. “The poverty in the slums is very high. Women find it very difficult to cope with the lack of economical resources and some of them have to survive on one or two dollars a day.” "If you are trafficking people, there is a good chance you will walk away with a small fine." IRIN’s investigation found that the 12 child victims of the alleged trafficking in Kenya cannot be adopted or moved out of their care homes until Deya is successfully extradited, and his case heard, according to Kenyan law. As such, the inability of British and Kenyan law enforcement to move forward in Deya’s case has left the children in limbo for more than a decade. "When they were brought here, they were between the ages of six months and two and half years. That was back in 2004," an employee at The Nest, the children’s home in Nairobi, told IRIN on condition of anonymity. Although the children have been in safe custody and attended good schools, many of them have now surpassed the age where they might be adopted. “Their birth certificate reads Gilbert Deya as a parent,” the employee told IRIN. Kenya has been on the US Department of State’s watchlist for the last five years for failing to make sufficient efforts to tackle its child-trafficking problem. In 2010, the country introduced a Counter Trafficking Act, which brought in stiff penalties including life sentences for culprits. However, Malinskow said that a lack of implementation means perpetrators still believe they can get away with it. “If you are trafficking drugs, there is a high chance you will be arrested and jailed for a long time,” he said. “If you are trafficking people, there is a good chance you will walk away with a small fine.” Creative accounting Despite the controversy surrounding the child-trafficking allegations and Deya’s possible extradition, his ministries have raised more than £10 million ($12.98 million) in the UK over the past decade, some of it public money from British charity Gift Aid tax breaks. [image: A billboard detailing Gilbert Deya \] Gilbert Deya Ministries Facebook page/ IRIN Gilbert Deya Ministries, which is based in London, has a number of churches across the UK, as well as a branch in Belgium <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=57fde6e115&e=399c7ee738>. Publications by Deya and his church say there are also branches in India, Zimbabwe, and the United States. Deya has published books, maintains an extensive social media presence, and at one point ran a TV channel carried by Sky. Billboards for his tour in August this year in Manchester, UK, promised “unusual miracles”. In 2014, Deya’s ministries had an annual income of more than £864,000 (some $1.4 million at the time). About 90 percent of this came from donations. An analysis of the ministries’ accounts on the Charity Commission website reveals “a cocktail of bad accounting”, according to Joe Saxton from nfpSynergy <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=00abd0fc67&e=399c7ee738>, a consultancy firm for charities. Typically, 70 percent of a charity’s spending is on “charitable activities”, and about one or two percent on governance costs. But, according to Gilbert Deya Ministry’s own accounts, it spent nothing on “charitable activities”, and its governance costs for 2014 were around 30 percent of its income. “An awful lot of questions have come out of the accounts,” said Saxton. “There are strange patterns of expenditure like writing off bad debts, and things that I can’t think of a logical explanation for.” Regulatory failings The England and Wales Charity Commission came under scrutiny in 2013 when a damning report by the National Audit Office found that the regulator failed to “identify and tackle abuse of charitable status.” According to the report, even taking into account the limited resources that the commission has, it was still failing to carry out substantive regulatory work. The harsh review led to the commission vowing publicly, in 2015, to take “robust and decisive action where necessary, making better use of data and being bold in its use of statutory powers”. British charity regulators are already on the defensive after a series of recent scandals. These include a high-profile case involving Kids Company, a charity that was given millions of pounds of public money from successive governments despite years of allegations of inappropriate “therapies”, lavish spending, and serious abuses of power. And the Scottish Charity Commission recently came under fire when a Sunday Post investigation revealed that trustees of Skotia Aid, a charity set up to help needy children in Sierra Leone, had for years used a business rates loophole to line their pockets whilst giving almost nothing to the children they were set up to help. The Charity Commission launched two previous investigations into Gilbert Deya Ministries, in 2000 and 2004, but never shut it down. In an email to IRIN, the Charity Commission confirmed that the 2004 investigation followed media interest in relation to the allegations of child trafficking. When IRIN asked for a record of the previous probes, we were told that the 2004 investigation was never made public as it may “cause severe prejudice to the charity” and was deemed “not to be in the public interest”. The Charity Commission closed its 2004 enquiry in September 2006 after it was satisfied that Gilbert Deya Ministries had made significant improvements. “The trustees took steps to review and improve the charity’s financial systems and governance, ensure that charity funds are properly applied, file outstanding audited accounts and protect the charity’s reputation,” the charity commission told IRIN. But following the investigation, accounts on the Charity Commission’s website reveal that Gilbert Deya Ministries was late filing its accounts two years in a row. For 2012, the charity provided the regulator with its accounts 453 days late. The previous year, the accounts were 152 days late. Alongside this, the “charitable activities” expenditure, compared to its governance and legal costs, has dropped significantly. Its most recent accounts, in 2014, declare that it spent £0 on “charitable activities” in that year. In August, the Charity Commission announced <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=7c52bfca7f&e=399c7ee738> the latest investigation into Deya’s operations, referring to issues related to “safeguarding” – a term used in connection with protection of children – whilst also raising concerns over the charity “selling olive oil to which it attributed healing qualities”. It also said the trustees “have failed to report serious incidents to the commission and to provide adequate responses to the questions raised”. Deya remains one of six trustees of the charity in the UK <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=9295f513b3&e=399c7ee738> . According to The Charities Act, the commission can remove charity status if it no longer considers an organisation a charity, or if a charity has ceased to operate. Still in business Whilst the controversy surrounding Gilbert Deya Ministries persists, the charity continues to grow. Official land documents obtained by IRIN reveal that the charity made more than £3.8 million ($4.95 million) from the recent sale of its property in Peckham, London. It has since moved its headquarters to a Greater London suburb, Sutton. Posts on the Gilbert Deya Ministries Facebook page claim that the charity also purchased 3.54 hectares of land in Sutton, on which Deya says he aims to build a hotel and a petrol station. “We should never forget that Gilbert Deya’s victims are innocent children who will have to live with his actions for the rest of their lives.” Meanwhile, attempts to extradite Deya to Kenya to face child-trafficking charges appear to have stalled. The Kenyan authorities requested his extradition in 2007. Deya appealed, stating that the extradition would breach his human rights and suggesting that his connection to Raila Odinga, the previous prime minister of Kenya, meant he could face torture back in his native country. Although he lost the appeal, the Home Office has never followed through with the extradition. In 2014, Kenyan media reported that one sticking point was that the UK had requested that Deya be held in one of two higher-standard prison facilities. [image: Gilbert Deya Ministries headquarters in Peckham] Emma Supple/ IRIN The most recent development came in early 2016, when the UK Home Office told Deya’s local MP that it was “considering further representations from Mr. Deya” claiming that his extradition would breach the European Convention on Human Rights. “I have been pressing Home Office ministers to take action on this truly dreadful case for many years,” the MP in question, David Lammy, a member of the opposition Labour Party, told IRIN. “Clearly there needs to be a review of how this despicable child trafficker and fraudster has been able to run rings around judicial and regulatory systems for so many years,” he said. “We should never forget that Gilbert Deya’s victims are innocent children who will have to live with his actions for the rest of their lives.” (Additional reporting by Mohammed Yusuf in Nairobi) (TOP PHOTO: An image from the charity's Facebook page on the 2nd October shows Deya in costume. Credit: Gilbert Deya Ministries Facebook Page) es/bp/ag A preacher accused of trafficking “miracle babies” is raking in millions of pounds through his “ministries” while his alleged child victims languish in legal limbo. REVEALED: The “miracle babies” preacher tying British regulators in knots Gilbert Deya <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=dcff04cee5&e=399c7ee738> Emma Supple <http:///authors/emma-supple> Ben Parker <http:///authors/ben-parker> Special Report <http:///special-report> Aid and Policy <http:///aid-and-policy> Human Rights <http:///human-rights> Politics and Economics <http:///politics-and-economics> LONDON <http:///publication-location/london> IRIN <http:///byline/irin> Africa <http:///africa> East Africa <http:///africa/east-africa> Kenya <http:///africa/east-africa/kenya> United Kingdom <http:///europe/united-kingdom> *Read on <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=4ae8265280&e=399c7ee738>* ------------------------------ More news and analysis <http://irinnews.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=31c0c755a8105c17c23d89842&id=769aff8625&e=399c7ee738> ... -- To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/southsudankob View this message at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/southsudankob/topic-id/message-id For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "South Sudan Info - The Kob" group. 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