INTERVIEW: What is the meaning of Sudan’s civil disobedience
Article
Comments (4)
email Email
print Print
pdfSave
separation
increase
decrease
separation
separation
A poster released by activists on the Facebook, calling on Sudanese to
participate in the general strike. It says remain at home on 19
December
December 19, 2016 (KHARTOUM) - Sudanese activists Monday launched a
new general strike against the government of President Omer al-Bashir
who is in power since more than 27 years.
Reached by Sudan Tribune, Ahmed Hussein Adam a Sudanese activist, now
a University Researcher, says the calls for general strikes in the
country on 27 November and 19 December constitute a turning point in
the efforts of Sudanese people to achieve democratic change in the
country since 30 June 1989.
Regardless of the immediate impact of the event, Adam pointed to the
importance of the protests saying that the Sudanese street is for the
first time feels confident enough to challenge the regime and to
achieve change by themselves.
In the interview hereunder Adam, speaks about the reaction of the
regime and the opposition alike to this "third way movement in Sudan".
He also speaks about its impact on the regime and warns against the
experience of Egyptian activists who toppled the regime of President
Hosni Mubarak but failed eventually to build a democratic regime.
Hereafter, the full text of the interview with Ahmed H Adam, a
Visiting Fellow at the Institute for African Development, Cornell
University. Former Co-chair of the Two Sudans Project at the Institute
for the Study of Human Rights, Columbia University in New York.
A third way movement has emerged in Sudan
Whatever the percentage of the success or failure of the Sudan’s civil
disobedience might be, the ongoing popular protest action has
drastically changed the rules of the game of the Sudanese politics.
Sudan will never be the same again. The current civil action has
united the Sudanese people across the country and given them
confidence to take the initiative for changing their country. The
civil disobedience is getting momentum by day. Both ordinary people
and opposition forces have been joining the movement every day.
Activists on the ground have proved by images and photos how the
streets were empty: university campus were deserted and shops were
closed today across Sudan,
Nevertheless, people should consider the civil disobedience as a part
of process of resistance and popular protest against the regime: it is
not one or two events!
The Sudanese people’s message is loud and clear: they want Bashir’s
departure and a meaningful change in their country; status quo cannot
be sustained anymore. The protest will greatly impact the regime’s
survival tactics, the opposition forces’ performance, as well as the
international community’s approach and policy on Sudan.
What happened?
The Sudan’s civil disobedience that has been launched by the youth
groups on social media, spread throughout Sudan in November (27-29),
and continued on the 19 of December marks the birth of the new third
way movement in Sudan. It is a social media and a grass-roots movement
which is under shaping. It is neither political nor ideological in
nature. A cutting-aged pragmatic movement that has been influenced by
the globalization. Most of the organizers of this wave of protest
movement are the young youth who were born under the Bashir’s regime
that seized power from the democratically elected government in June
1989. However, the emergence of the current protest movement is clear
and ultimate rejection to the agedly, corrupt, bankrupt and autocratic
regime of Bashir.
On the other hand, these youth groups are disillusioned and
dissatisfied with the poor performance of the traditional opposition
forces, which have failed to realize the needed change and create a
credible alternative to Bashir’s regime.
Who are the organizers of the civil disobedience?
Like their Tunisian and Egyptian counterparts, during the events of
the Arab Spring in 2011, the organizers and leaders of the Sudan’s
civil disobedience are still anonymous. It is true that some of them
constantly appear on social media, however, no structures or detailed
political program have emerged yet. The organizers are diverse groups,
including the former youth groups who organized the protest of
September 2013, college students and some youth who are affiliated to
the opposition forces inside the country. However, these youth groups
are mostly from Khartoum and some urban areas of Sudan.
The regime and the Civil Disobedience
The civil disobedience has scared and shaken the core of the regime.
The desperation and fear were clear in Bashir’s rhetoric and actions
during the course of the last three weeks. Bashir dismissed the
organizers of the civil disobedience as cowards who hide behind the
“keyboards”, and that he would never hand over the fate of Sudan to
traitors of the “WhatsApp and Facebook”.
One of the interesting things in this regard, the regime for the first
time celebrated the occasion of the declaration of the Sudan’s
independence from the parliament on 19 December 1955. The regime did
purposely to spoil and counter the civil disobedience of 19 December.
Bashir’s NISS also arrested dozens of opposition leaders and
activists.
There is murmuring among the regime’s civil and military cadres and
supporters, many of them perceive Bashir as liability. Many sources
confirmed that some power circles within the regime had supported the
two phases of the civil disobedience.
How will the regime respond? Scenarios of the regime’s response tactics?
First, Bashir will move swiftly to form his so-called broad national
government from the participants of his national dialogue. Bashir is
desperate, therefore, he intends to shift the conversation and
discourse from the civil disobedience to his national dialogue and
formation of the new government. Bashir may also indicate his interest
in reviving the Road Map, that just for the sake of buying time and
changing the current conversation in Sudan. We should read this with
imminent visit of Thabo Mbeki, the head of the AUHIP Panel to
Khartoum.
Second, Some regional players, such as the leaders of Saudi Arabia,
Qatar and United Arab Emirates(Bashir’s new allies and financiers) who
have huge investments in Sudan; they may put forward an initiative of
soft landing for Bashir that could include the departure of Bashir in
return of immunity from the ICC’s prosecution. However, the ICC’s
Darfur case is not subject for such political deals.
Third. Bashir could also stage a place coup by one of his loyalists
within the army, in order to save himself and abort any real change. A
real coup by some disillusioned by some mid-ranking officers could
also occur.
Fourth, Bashir may copy Bashar Asaad’s survival tactics by unleashing
extremist and terrorist groups to present himself as a traditional
Arab/African regime that fights against international terrorism, so
that he could get international support and stay in power.
Fifth, if the current civil disobedience takes the shape of a protest
on the street Bashir may use the Janjaweed and other militia to
crackdown on peaceful protesters, as in September 2013, when more than
200 peaceful demonstrators were killed by Bashir’s security forces and
militias.
Civil disobedience and the opposition forces
Just like the regime, the traditional opposition forces were taken by
surprise by the new wave of protest. It is clear that the opposition
forces did not learn the lessons of the protest of the September 2013
that was organized by the youth groups. However, the opposition forces
have issued statements in supporting the civil disobedience and given
the full credit for the anonymous youth groups for organizing it.
However, the opposition forces need to move beyond statements and
political declarations. if they want to be relevant. The opposition
forces should move swiftly to work with the organizers of the protest
to a forge a broad coalition and credible alternative to the Bashir’s
regime.
What next?
I expect the momentum of the civil disobedience to increase and enter
new phases and stages. The organizers have gotten huge confidence and
popular support across the country. The youth groups have broken the
so-called wall of fear; they are at the offence. Youth groups and
ordinary have taken the initiative for change. The regime is so shaky
and scared. Bashir desperately called on the youth groups to appear on
the streets to teach them a lesson, as he did in September 2013.
However, I do not expect the civil disobedience to be transformed into
a full-fledge street movement at this stage. The mobilization will
continue and new steps and time-line will be announced soon. If the
momentum continues the regime may fragment, some regime’s power
circles may get rid of Bashir who considered he big liability!
To realize a successful change, the organizers need to forge a broad
alliance that includes all the victims of the regime and those who
have a real interest in change in Sudan. It is imperative that while
Sudanese are struggling to change the Bashir’s regime, they should
prepare for the day after. Wael Ghonim, one of the iconic Egyptian
social media revolutionaries during the Arab Spring in 2011, told
Thomas Friedman in his piece “Social Media: Destroyer or Creator? That
they succeeded in ousting Mubarak’s regime, but they failed to build
the democratic alternative that they dreamed of. We need to learn from
their experience.
The international community should acknowledge that its so-called
constructive engagement policy on Sudan has failed. Therefore, it must
change its approach and policy on Sudan; it should support real change
and its agents in Sudan.
The international community should use the current momentum that has
been created by the civil disobedience to press the regime to allow a
fresh and meaningful transition in Sudan. Sudan needs an orderly and
peaceful change to evade the scenario of chaos and fragmentation that
will have precarious impact on the regional security and stability.
The international community should also pressure the regime to stop
the ongoing violations of international human rights and humanitarian
laws in Sudan. It should also immediately release all political
detainees.
(ST)
Comments on the Sudan Tribune website must abide by the following
rules. Contravention of these rules will lead to the user losing their
Sudan Tribune account with immediate effect.
- No inciting violence
- No inappropriate or offensive language
- No racism, tribalism or sectarianism
- No inappropriate or derogatory remarks
- No deviation from the topic of the article
- No advertising, spamming or links
- No incomprehensible comments
Due to the unprecedented amount of racist and offensive language on
the site, Sudan Tribune tries to vet all comments on the site.
There is now also a limit of 400 words per comment. If you want to
express yourself in more detail than this allows, please e-mail your
comment as an article to [email protected]
Kind regards,
The Sudan Tribune editorial team.
20 December 09:46, by Ssam
ST forgot to mention that Mr Adam is the former spokesman for JEM
& sought asylum in the US "doing research". He abandoned his fellow
rebels for fame & money. This list is Mr Adams wish list & spoken like
someone who hasnt lived in Sudan for decades & has no idea of events.
The activists are lead by the communist party, it isnt gaining
momentum, it actually died on day 2.
repondre message
20 December 09:50, by Ssam
Mr Adanm can keep lying to americans, but he had NO ears in
Sudan. maybe ST can interview someone actually worth listening to
their opinion, who isnt just pushing an agenda & has some objective
critical thinking. Have you seen any of his many interviews; he says
the same garbage he memorised for years.
repondre message
20 December 20:07, by Kalo
SSam,you said something about communist but your people
are now survive under communist group of China and Russia,your
President was recently in China and you have delegates visited Russian
two week ago,their purposed was to begged Russia for bilaterally
relationship after America refused to reverse the decision of
sanction,even Israel you have secret deal with them,don,t
pretend,don,t mislead.
repondre message
20 December 21:01, by Ssam
No Kalo it isnt. China & Russia are the growing
economic power houses. Your western friends are broke, thats why they
cant fund your rebellion anymore. Why change the subject Kalo dry
season coming & you’re saying your goodbyes?
--
To post to this group, send email to [email protected]
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
[email protected]
Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/southsudankob
View this message at
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/southsudankob/topic-id/message-id
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"South Sudan Info - The Kob" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to [email protected].
To post to this group, send email to [email protected].
Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/SouthSudanKob.
To view this discussion on the web visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/SouthSudanKob/CAJb14oqDpwqfdVsmkRbuLz%2B%3D1mfH%3De3rTWKjN9Gi2xVQ7%2Bzrwg%40mail.gmail.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
