Kenya will find siding with Kiir’s Juba Govt. is a risky game to play
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By: Muthoni Wanyeki, THE EASTAFRICAN, FEB/01/2017, SSN;

IN SUMMARY: While the Kiir’s SPLM may seem to have sway right now, the
region’s patience with it has long run out. Taking sides isn’t good
for Kenya in the long-run. Neither, in the short-run.

The news broke this past Wednesday. Dong Samuel Luak, former
secretary-general of the South Sudan Law Society — who has refugee
status here in Kenya — and Aggrey Idri, chair of the humanitarian
committee of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition,
had both gone missing.

Dong Samuel Luak was last seen Monday evening and Aggrey Idri was last
seen Monday morning. Both were reported to be in the custody of the
Kenyan police, pending deportation back to South Sudan.

Searches by their families, together with legal representation and
representation from the United Nations High Commission for Refugees,
began. No entries were recorded in the Occurrence Book at the Nairobi
area police headquarters. By Thursday, the search had extended to
Langata and Nyayo police stations, where at least one of them was
reported to have been moved.

The Kenyan police continue to deny having them in their custody. It is
during such periods of unacknowledged detention, before production in
court, that detainees are at the most risk of torture and
ill-treatment.

We all followed the deportation from Kenya to South Sudan of James
Gatdet, spokesperson for the SPLM-IO at the end of last year. At the
behest of the shambles that’s left of what was meant to be a
coalition, transitional government. James Gatdet is now held in
solitary confinement in South Sudan — reportedly in a cell no larger
than 1.5 × 3 metres.

That deportation, given Kenya’s dominance in the Inter-Governmental
Authority on Development — initially tasked with leading the regional
effort peace — raised questions about Igad’s competency and
independence.

The AU itself has had to step in —as well as the old so-called Troika
of external actors. On Friday morning, in the presence of a large
representation by the South Sudanese community, including former first
lady Rebecca Garang, the High Court issued orders to the Department of
Immigration to ensure no deportation of the two takes place; and
directed all mobile telephone providers to make available all data
relating to all known mobile numbers of the two as well as a mobile
number believed to belong to a member of the South Sudanese National
Security Service operating in Nairobi.

The decimation and scattering of the SPLM-IO’s leadership has meant
that, on the surface at least, the SPLM proper holds sway. Which it is
using to devastating and terrible effect.

The AU, for instance, is reported to have in hand a draft agreement
between itself and what passes as the Transitional Government of
National Unity of South Sudan on the establishment of the hybrid court
to try those most responsible for the abominable mass atrocities
committed in the course of the crisis. But the GoSS has had the
audacity to refuse entry to the AU to even discuss these drafts.

A high-level meeting will thus be held during this AU Summit on
reinvigorating the peace process. What the TGNU needs to be aware of
is that the idea of an AU trusteeship for South Sudan is gaining
traction given its continued belligerence.

So, while the SPLM may seem to have sway right now, the region’s
patience with it has long run out. Taking sides isn’t good for Kenya
in the long-run. Neither, in the short-run, is it good for the safety
of Kenyans and Kenyan businesses in SPLM-IO controlled territories in
South Sudan.

L. Muthoni Wanyeki is Amnesty International’s regional director for
East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes
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