Egypt’s Strategic Water Security: The myth and the truth
Article
Comments (0)
email Email
print Print
pdfSave
separation
increase
decrease
separation
separation
By Ermias Hailu
Following to the end of the second world war Egypt’s failure to
integrate Eritrea to its territories, due to Emperor Haile Selassie’s
superior diplomatic skills, the then Pan- Arab nationalistic President
Nasser’s government turned to ethnic and religious subversion against
Ethiopia. In 1955 Egypt began working for the instigation of an “Arab”
revolution in the then autonomous Ethiopian province Eritrea, to that
effect, hundreds of young Muslims from Eritrea, were invited to Cairo
to study and enjoy special benefits. Although they were not native
Arabic speakers, they absorbed the spirit of Arab revolution and
adopted a modern Arab identity. There they also learned how to set up
a modern guerrilla ‘liberation front’ and by 1959 they had finalised
their training in Egypt and were ready to establish the Eritrean
Liberation Front (ELF) and they returned to the Sudanese town of
Kassala and become connected to the pro- Egypt Sudanese Al-Mirghaniyya
movement. More concretely the ELF launched an open anti-Ethiopian
revolt in Eritrea in 1961, claiming and propagating a fake Arab
Eritrean identity.
“The Arabism of Eritrean People” remained one slogan of Nasserism to
its end and to promote Eritrea’s liberation from Ethiopia, Nasser was
also ready to help local Eritrean Christian Tigrians who resisted
reunification with Ethiopia. In 1955, the prominent leader of
Christian Tigreans in Eritrea, WaldeAb WeldeMariam, was invited to
broadcast daily anti-Ethiopian propaganda on Radio Cairo and the
Nasserist regime remained the main pillar of support for the Eritrean
separatist movement until 1963. The myth of Eritrea’s Arabism, adopted
and advanced by Eritrean Muslims, was to survive until 1980’s and the
war in Eritrea that was instigated by Egypt lasted 30 years and caused
untold human and financial loss both to Ethiopia and Eritrea. As of
today, Eritrea is a de facto colony of Egypt and is being utilised as
a proxy war front against Ethiopia and it is also the command post of
those Ethiopian political groups who opted to ally with Egypt.
Hundreds of Eritreans’ industries, hardworking and proud citizens and
their children escape the prison and pariah government of Eritrea on
daily basis facing any risk on their way.
No less significant was the issue of Nasserist influence on the Somali
nationalists and beginning in the mid-1950s Nasserist policy,
literature, and agents worked to enhance the anti-Ethiopian dimension
of Somali nationalism branded it as “Greater Somalia”. The Somalis
encouraged by the potential Egypt backing, claimed about one-third of
Ethiopia’s territory and when they united and received their
independence in July 1960 and joined the Arab League 1974, they
continued to present a serious on-going challenge (two wars fought) to
the integrity of the Ethiopian sovereignty until Somalia was
disintegrated and engulfed by civil war in 1991. The disintegration of
Somalia which has caused the scatter of Somalis throughout the world
and death of millions of Somalis by war and famine and wastage of
decades of nation building opportunity was a byproduct of the failed
Egyptians destabilisation strategy of Ethiopia.
Similarly, after Egypt failed to stop the British from allowing Sudan
to declare its independence from Egypt in 1956, it has been constantly
interfering into the internal affairs of Sudan including the Sudanese
army staged coup d’état in November 1958, overthrowing the civilian
government of Abdullah Khalil which had uncompromised and hard
negotiation position on the Nile river, in which Egypt friendly Gen.
Ibrahim Abboud led the new military government.
The 1959 Nile water share agreement signed between Egypt and Sudan
which gave the lion share to Egypt (78% to Egypt and 22% to Sudan on
the net annual flow after deducting 10 billion cubic meters for
evaporation loss) was agreed with Gen Abboud. Considering the fact
that, the flow measuring point is deep in Egypt at the Aswan High dam
and the annual hypothetical evaporation loss of 10 billion cubic
meters, the share for Sudan is substantially lower than 22%. If the
water share allocation was done taking into account “population size
and arable land area” as factors, Sudan’s share should have been not
less than 40%.
Though Egypt opposed the split of South Sudan from Sudan during the
pre-independence conflict time, currently it is the main sponsor of
the fragile and corrupt President Kiir government and is prolonging
the suffering of the South Sudan people with the objective of getting
a foothold near to Ethiopian border to sabotage Ethiopia.
We are also hearing saber-rattling of few bribed government officials
from South Sudan and Uganda trying to finger point at Ethiopia in
relation to its decision to build the GERD and the speedy ratification
of the “The Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement” by its
parliament.
The Zero-Sum game that has been played by Egypt to ensure its water
security has become unsustainable, out of dated and irrelevant (it is
a myth) for the following reasons:
- Creating jobs and feeding the rapidly growing population in the
Horn of Africa and in the countries of the Nile Basin demands
governments to generate power for industrialisation and mechanised
farming and produce sufficient food to ensure food security which
requires more consumption of water. The domestic consumption of water
also increases in proportion to the population growth.
- The Aswan High dam only stores one year flow of the Nile water,
whereas, global warming and other unpredictable climate changes could
result in a drought that lasts to the biblical-proportion of up to
seven years. In that case, the Aswan dam could dry with unimaginable
consequences on Egypt’s 94 million growing population and makes
Egypt’s water security strategy null and void.
- The growing population of Egypt also requires more water than the
storage capacity of the High Aswan dam. That necessitates the
construction of additional reservoir dams either in Ethiopia and/or
Sudan (building an additional dam in Egypt looks not practical).
- The Aswan high dam may be filled by silt within the next 300 to 500
years. How will Egypt manage such unavoidable fact with a huge
population that is 95% dependent on the Nile water?
Considering the above points, it is expected that Egyptian water
security strategists and the Egyptians government covertly want the
construction of more dams in Sudan and Ethiopia as far as their
historical share is not significantly affected. They also know that
dams built in Ethiopia along the deep Abbay River Gorge could only be
mainly used for hydroelectric power generation with lower evaporation
loss and lower construction cost per volume. Egyptians are also
considering others sources of water such us linking the Congo River
with the White Nile and digging the Jonglei Canal in South Sudan which
is good ideas but difficult to implement.
Then what is the reason that Egypt has been too nervous and trying to
destabilise Ethiopia and sabotage the completion of the Great
Ethiopian Renaissance dam(GERD)?
The following could be the main reasons:
- Fear of the unknown which is a natural reaction considering the
historical facts and the strategic importance of the Nile to Egypt’s
future survival
- Fear that Sudan (the potential main Nile water consumer) could use
more than its agreed share of the 1959 agreement. This fear is
reasonable as any dam built in Ethiopia will regulate the seasonal
flow of water in Sudan which will enable Sudan to access more and
steady flow of water year-round. This may call for a new Nile water
share agreement between the two countries and I do not think Sudan
will allow itself to be manipulated by Egypt for the second time.
- Since Egypt has no water share agreement with Ethiopia, Egypt wants
that agreement to be negotiated and agreed with a weak destabilised
Ethiopia (exactly what they did to Sudan in 1959). By now Egypt should
know “how Ethiopia is strongly founded “and its resilience to come out
of crises. Despite the sudden and untimely death of PM Meles Zenawi
who championed the concept of Ethiopian Renaissance and started the
GERD and the internal instabilities that Ethiopia faced during the
last year, the construction of the dam was not stopped for a fraction
of a second. Now Ethiopia is already stable and is getting prepared
for more rapid economic growth.
- Egypt’s concern of loss of ground as the main historical
geopolitical player in the region to Ethiopia both from Africa, Middle
East and Global perspective is also a bitter bill for Egypt to swallow
and digest. I do not think Egypt should be emotional and concerned
about the rising of Ethiopia which is one of the old civilisations
that rivals Egypt and kept its independence and uniqueness during the
good and bad time. It is always going to be true that both Egypt and
Ethiopia have an irreplaceable and complementary role to play for
peace, security, economic integration and social development of the
region.
Due to Egypt’s standing strategy of securing the lion share of the
water from the Nile river( under the pretext of ensuring water
security) at the expense of more than 300 million people around the
Horn of Africa, it has been obsessed in sabotaging the peace and
stability of Ethiopia and Sudan over the years and as the result the
whole of Horn/East of Africa has been unstable and remained one of the
poorest regions in the world and major source of migrants to Europe
and elsewhere. Since the mid of 20th century, this region has
witnessed the death of millions of people, both because of war and
famine, aggravation of poverty and wastage of scarce billions of
dollars for a war that could have been used for development.
Egypt’s strategy of sustaining its water security through sabotaging
and destabilising Ethiopia and Sudan is no more a relevant strategy
for Egypt (it is a myth). Egypt needs more water reservoirs to be
built both in Sudan and Ethiopia for sustaining its water security.
Storing water in the deep Abbay Gorge is the most attractive option as
it could store more water at lower cost and less evaporation loss and
lower usage of water other than generating hydroelectric power by
Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt should negotiate and
agree a win-win water share tripartite and bilateral agreements. Of
course, all other Nile Basin countries like Uganda, Kenya, and South
Sudan etc. should also agree with both Sudan and Egypt on how to share
the White Nile water.
Whatever plot Egypt may try to sabotage and destabilise the main water
supplier to the Nile “Ethiopia “and the main potential Nile water
Consumer” Sudan” may not be effective now as Egypt is currently
economically weak and facing serious external and internal terrorism
and war threats. In addition, the main neighbours of Ethiopia, except
Eritrea, that Egypt had been historically using as a proxy to
destabilise Ethiopia are currently allied with Ethiopia as they are
fully aware of the consequences of being manipulated and used by Egypt
to conspire against their strategic neighbour. The Eritrean government
that has made Eritrea an open-air prison for its citizens is also
increasingly being rejected by its people and it will collapse in the
very near future. Therefore, Egypt should be ready for a realistic
negotiation based on mutual respect and sustainable peaceful
co-existence with Sudan and Ethiopia.
It is expected that Ethiopia and Sudan are jointly ready to counter
and defend themselves from any uncalled aggression from Egypt!
1. Recommendations
(i) For Egypt
• Stop destabilising Ethiopia and Sudan as a confidence building measure
• Be transparent and open-minded for discussion and be ready to
negotiate a win-win water share agreement with both Ethiopia and Sudan
(ii) Ethiopia and Sudan
• Create a united front to counter and defend Egypt’s bad behaviour
and habit (I think this is already in place)
• Negotiate with Egypt united and from strength knowing the fact that
Egypt badly needs more upstream dams for water reservoir for its
future survival.
(iii) Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt
• Work on a strategy to build more dams on the Abbay Gorge that could
be used mainly as reservoir and hydroelectric power generation, except
for emergency cases.
• If the Abbay Gorge alone could store seven years of Nile annual flow
volume-go for it- but share the costs.
Of course, including the cost of GERD.
--
To post to this group, send email to [email protected]
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
[email protected]
Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/southsudankob
View this message at
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/southsudankob/topic-id/message-id
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"South Sudan Info - The Kob" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to [email protected].
To post to this group, send email to [email protected].
Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/SouthSudanKob.
To view this discussion on the web visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/SouthSudanKob/CAJb14or-AG1ZuEHNPSQn5gZDGWQQFDyAb7HBxO6jkdGosr947A%40mail.gmail.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
