---------- Forwarded message --------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2017 at 21:47 Subject: [sudans-john-ashworth] John Prendergast: Reverse Course in South Sudan To: Group <[email protected]>
Reverse Course in South Sudan International actors are making 5 mortal strategic errors. By John Prendergast | Opinion Contributor | US News June 27, 2017, at 12:30 p.m. As the grim tolls of death and destruction mount rapidly in South Sudan, the lack of any kind of coherent international peace strategy is becoming more and more painfully evident. The deadly zero-sum power struggle for control of the kleptocratic state machinery in Juba, South Sudan's capital, ensures that the imagination and political will for peace will not be forthcoming from the warring parties on their own. What is required is a unified approach involving neighboring states, the African Union, the United Nations and interested governments like the United States and United Kingdom. Not only is that unified strategy not being pursued, but the international actors most involved in peace efforts are committing five mortal errors in their approach to South Sudan that basically guarantee the continuation of conflict, famine and mass atrocities. The legacy of this hapless international record will stain South Sudan for generations. Corruption. First, international actors never addressed the competitive corruption that has been at the heart of the conflict and economic implosion. For a dozen years, political-military factions – largely conforming to ethnic allegiances – have invested much of their energy in capturing the spoils of the state treasury and the natural resource wealth of the country, rather than in governing effectively. The massive rot of corruption at the center of the world's newest state, born in 2011, was never challenged by the governments and multilateral institutions – including the United States – that supported its birth. Even as the newest phase of war has intensified and state revenues have collapsed, competing factions have continued to repurpose every governing institution and function for personal wealth creation. It is primarily for access to the spoils of this hijacked state that the leaders of the main warring factions fight, and nothing has been done to disincentivize the corruption at the center of this conflict without a cause, which has unleashed cycles of revenge and other factors that have evolved and deepened since the war began in 2013. No mediation strategy. Second, there is no real mediation strategy that holds any prospect of successful peacemaking. Although the number of rebel groups is growing, the internationals continue to passively support a previous failed agreement that only involved two of the warring factions. Since that agreement, the U.S. and later the African Union basically discouraged the leader of one of the two factions, former Vice President Riek Machar, from ever returning to Juba, thus inadvertently emboldening the other faction, led by the current president, Salva Kiir, to avoid serious negotiations with any of the armed factions. To compound their mistakes, the internationals didn't press hard enough to include civil society in any meaningful peace efforts, provided little support to any kind of intercommunal reconciliation strategy and only have dealt seriously with the guys with the biggest guns. The threat of consequences, but only that. Third, the internationals have become very accomplished at threatening consequences without actually ever imposing any. Time and again, after atrocities are revealed, the U.S. and others threaten to impose future unspecified measures, but after the furor of the moment dies down, no actual repercussions follow. What small measures that might be taken usually are unenforced, leaving the South Sudanese combatants with the realistic impression that the international paper tiger roars but does not bite. A divided Security Council. The U.N. Security Council has remained hopelessly divided throughout the entirety of the latest South Sudan conflict. Since it erupted in December 2013, the Security Council stunningly has been unable to even take the minimal step of banning arms deliveries into this active war zone. The U.S. position has flip-flopped on this issue so many times that governments that oppose an embargo have not had to use their veto power, and governments that support one feel burned by the U.S. and thus do not champion the issue. The deadly status quo thus continues. Wrong focus. Fifth, what little action is occurring now is focused on getting a rapid deployment force sent to Juba to protect civilian populations. This is a classic case of fighting the last war. Indeed, at one point in the conflict, civilians in the capital city were at risk, but the risk has diminished considerably; the theater of concern has moved dramatically since then. Nevertheless, the internationals continue to expend needless energy and diplomatic capital on cobbling together a force that will have no impact on the civilian populations most in need of protection. The international actors engaged in South Sudan diplomacy should start doing the opposite of nearly everything they are doing now. The country is in dire need of a peace strategy that involves two fundamentally important ingredients for peace to have a chance. Everyone agrees the conflict is not "ripe for resolution" currently, so measures should be introduced to help ripen it. To that end, the U.S. should lead efforts to impose "network sanctions" (sanctions on crucial officials, companies and international facilitators in a network, much more potent than sanctioning one official) on key war leader networks that are also benefiting from the grand corruption destroying the country. Anti-money-laundering measures should also be deployed to stop these thieves of state from using the international financial system to profit off their corruption. Enforcement by regional states and international banks would also be crucial to curtailing their activities. In addition, a new mediation effort needs to be designed and initiated as key officials begin to feel the pressures recommended above. This effort should include the government, the main armed opposition factions, key political parties, and civil society actors. An inclusive peace is the only peace that could ever be sustainable. The African Union and United Nations should assume leading roles in a fresh peace process, as the divisions between neighboring states have severely undermined prospects for success in the current framework. As the old adage goes, if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. Very little that the international community is doing now is contributing to the possibility of peace. Time to wreck and rebuild, aiming for a new approach that learns valuable lessons from the crushing failures of the past decade and refocuses on the most important pathways to a peaceful future for South Sudan. https://www.usnews.com/opinion/world-report/articles/2017-06-27/5-ways-international-actors-are-failing-south-sudan END ______________________ John Ashworth [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +44 787 976 8030 (UK mobile) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) Skype: jashworth1 PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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